Markets desk

Morning report — Thu 1 Oct 2026 ~07:55 HKT (research/paper)

Research/paper only. No live orders or recommendations. KRX Thu cash — open 1 Oct 09:00 KST. HKEX CLOSED National Day (reopen Fri 2 Oct). Age-cut: news Wed 30 + Thu 1; DART ≥ Wed 30 15:40 KST.

watchlists US AJ: no NEW overnight board rows (Outlook CONNECTED; Wed 30 credit teaser IG yields 5.97% Sep 29 — macro only, no ticker). Standing Y: AVGO, MU, MRVL, NVDA (HC), XPEV, META, AMD, LITE. Wait ORCL; Caution TSLA, NIO; Watch SPCX; Avoid EOSE, EOS; N PLTR, AAPL, RIVN, SNDK. Korea attractive: EMPTY. 000660 is Hynix desk only. Micron FQ4 overnight = MU calendar color, not a new AJ Y.

asia news Age-cut Wed+Thu n=6. Lead: MiniMax +3.65% / Z.AI +4.31% on HSTECH into National Day close (HSI +0.37% 24,613). Micron FQ4 $54.23bn / EPS $33.42 + Q1 guide $61.5bn — Chosun/Asiae read-through Samsung/Hynix. Yonhap Wed KOSPI −0.48% foreign −₩2.05tn; SEDaily KOSPI cedes YTD lead to Taiwan. HKET/KED thin.

X Evening refresh 2026-10-01 21:46 HKT · Sentiment mixed, medium · Home unavailable · n_new=4 (fxtwitter statuses OK). NEW: Zephyr Anthropic~5GW AVGO; Jukan MU 2028 tighter/LTAs; AVGO HBM≈NVDA + TPU>NVDA'27 mix; COHR 300mm SiC. Still mixed; not a lean flip.

DART Age-window ≥2026-10-01 15:40 KST: 2 keeps (no material 000660) — Iljin Electric 103590 UP 3-8%/p≈15% UK 400kV cable ₩187.2bn (~4.7% mcap; AH +6.9%); Shaperon 378800 UP 8%+/p≈32% Q3 sales leftover into open. Tip last_seen 20261002800002 @07:36 KST.

funding BN OK via www.binance.com/fapi. SKHY BN 185.19 / HL 185.05 (+7.8 bp); SKHYNIX 1311.09 / SKHX 1309.10 (+15.2 bp). Next BN funding 08:00 HKT. Paper only.

Hynix KR PREOPEN → 09:00. Wed cash 000660 ₩1,776,000 (+0.62%) O/H/L 1,789k/1,824k/1,773k · vol 2.97M · For −343k / Inst −135k / Ind −107k; FO 49.78%. SKHY Wed $184.15; prem vs Wed KRX/FX 1,352.8 ≈ +40.27%. NEW officer-ownership DART only (not keep). Micron overnight = open catalyst. Paper Seoul: NO (Leg A +0.62% fails).

HYROX Warsaw registration announced (not open): opens 14 Oct 2026 12:00 CET / 18:00 HKT; race 7–11 Apr 2027. Official "Sale starts soon". Outlook: no newer Warsaw OPEN mail. ping_needed=false.

HSI +0.37% to 24,613; MiniMax +3.65% / Z.AI +4.31% top HSTECH into National Day close

Wed 30 Sep HK cash: HSI +89 pts (+0.37%) to 24,613 on HK$187bn turnover; HSTECH +0.1% to 4,253. MiniMax (0100) +3.65% and Z.AI/Zhipu (2513) +4.31% led TECH. Tencent −0.23%; Alibaba +0.38%. HKEX closed Thu 1 Oct National Day; reopen Fri 2 Oct.

Implication: Hard rank-a China AI beta print inside age-cut — MiniMax/Zhipu rebound into holiday vs Tue soft session; constructive HK AI sleeve while KR still fights foreign dump + rates.

www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/344250/Biopharma-shares-drive-HSI

Micron FQ4 AI earnings surge — read-through for Samsung / SK Hynix

Coverage after Wed US close (published ~2026-09-30 22:10Z / Thu ~06:10 HKT): Micron FQ4 FY26 revenue $54.23bn (vs ~$51.07bn est) and adjusted EPS $33.42; HBM4/DRAM strength framed as constructive for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix into Thu KR cash.

Implication: Hard memory-calendar catalyst for 000660/005930/MU into Thu KR open — pairs with TrendForce HBM ASP tape; watch whether foreign flow reverses after Wed’s chip dump.

www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2026/10/01/D4EFDSJH3BAOFFDXU6CHJ3Y5RM

KR open: rebound bias on Micron beat + export hopes; US mixed, 10y >5.3%

Thu 1 Oct 08:06 KST: Asiae notes Wed US mixed (Dow −0.86% / S&P −0.25% / Nasdaq +0.24%) with 10y yield back above ~5.3% despite soft PCE. Flags Micron beat (rev/EPS above; GM ~87% vs ~86% est) and quarter-end rebalancing end as supports for a KR rebound.

Implication: Hard pre-open framing for Thu KOSPI — Micron surprise vs still-high UST yields; sets the auction debate for memory beta.

www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/2026100108032474273

KOSPI −0.48% to 6,838.04 (3rd down day); Hynix +0.62%, Samsung −1.47%; foreign −₩2.05tn

Wed 30 Sep: KOSPI 6,838.04 (−32.77 / −0.48%). Samsung ₩268,500 (−1.47%); SK hynix ~₩1.78m (+0.62%). Foreign net −₩2.05tn; institutions −₩768bn; individuals +₩1.17tn. Won 15:30 1,352.8. Drivers: US 10y >5.2% / 30y >5.6%.

Implication: Hard Wed cash base for Thu open — memory split (Hynix up / Samsung down) into Micron night; foreign still dumping.

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260930007652320

KOSPI cedes YTD lead to Taiwan; 1m gain only +0.26% as rates offset chip hopes

Thu 1 Oct SEDaily: KOSPI YTD +62.26% now #2 behind Taiwan TAIEX +66.29%; past-month +0.26% (12th). Cites rising yields vs semiconductor earnings expectations; notes Samsung/SK hynix forward P/E ~4–5× after Q3 correction.

Implication: Macro/positioning overlay for KR beta — explains why Micron beat may not clear the rates/flow drag alone.

en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/01/kospi-cedes-global-lead-to-taiwan-as-m

Micron FQ4: $54.23bn rev / non-GAAP EPS $33.42; Q1 FY27 guide $61.5bn ± $1.5bn

Wed 30 Sep after US close: Micron FQ4 FY26 revenue $54.229bn; non-GAAP diluted EPS $33.42; GAAP GM 86.8%. FY26 rev $133.19bn. Guides FQ1-27 rev $61.5bn ± $1.5bn; non-GAAP EPS $38.15 ± $1.00. Dividend $0.15 payable 29 Oct.

Implication: Hard MU (Y-list) + KR memory read-through — supply-tight / AI-memory narrative into Thu KR cash; paper only.

www.stocktitan.net/news/MU/micron-technology-inc-reports-record-fiscal-f

UK 400kV grid cable supply+install ₩187.2bn (~4.7% mcap / 9.15% sales); no advance; end TBD

2026-10-02 07:36 KST: Iljin Electric (일진전기, 103590, KOSPI) filed single sales/supply contract (단일판매ㆍ공급계약체결). Content: product supply — 400kV transmission-grid cable supply and installation (400kV 송전망 케이블 공급 및 설치). Firm ₩187,172,249,990 (₩187.2bn / 1872억; GBP 104,088,672.00 @ GBP/KRW 1,798.20 on 2026-10-01 Hana Bank). Recent consol. sales ₩2,044,552,052,338 → 9.15% of sales. Large-corp: no. CP: J. MURPHY & SONS LIMITED (relationship "-"). Region: UK. Period start 2026-10-01; end blank. Advance/prepay: none (무); payment per supply-contract claims. Contract date 2026-10-01. Notes: full end date TBD pending owner NTP then PMI; amount/term may change; will amend when end date fixed. rcpNo 20261002800002 / dcmNo 11600599 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (일진전기 matches). Live at enrich (Naver 103590 @2026-10-02 08:09 KST PREOPEN/AH): last ₩82,900 (0.00% cash); AH/over ₩88,600 (+6.88%); OS 47,685,390 → mcap ≈ ₩3.95tn (39,531억); face/mcap ≈ 4.7%.

Why: What: Iljin Electric (103590) UK 400kV grid cable supply+install for J. Murphy & Sons — ₩187.2bn (GBP 104.1m; 9.15% YE2025 consol sales / ~4.7% of ~₩3.95tn mcap); no advance; end date TBD (NTP/PMI). Why UP: Named non-affiliate UK HV-cable award = real export demand on a grid-theme name. Why 3-8%: ~5% mcap clears mid band on ₩4tn KOSPI; refuse 8%+ for zero advance, blank end-date, amount/term flex. Why p≈15%: Pre-market already +6.9% (₩88,600) — top of 3-8% mostly printed; don’t-chase into 09:00.

DART 20261002800002

Q3 sales ₩4.77bn vs Q2 ₩41m / LY ₩168m; OP/NP blank in FD

2026-10-01 15:54 KST: Shaperon (샤페론, 378800, KOSDAQ) filed consolidated preliminary operating results FD (연결재무제표기준영업(잠정)실적). Period Q3 2026-07-01~2026-09-30. Sales ₩4,771m (₩4.771bn) vs Q2 ₩41m (+11,536.6% QoQ) and vs Q3’25 ₩168m (+2,739.9% YoY). 9M sales ₩4,878m vs ₩179m YoY (+2,625.1%). Operating profit, pretax and net income lines all blank (“-”) in the FD. rcpNo 20261001900342 / dcmNo 11599854 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (샤페론 matches). Live at enrich (Naver 378800 @2026-10-01 16:05 KST): last ₩2,535 (1.81% vs prev); mcap ≈ 234억; AH open.

Why: What: Shaperon (378800) Q3 sales ₩4.771bn vs Q2 ₩41m / LY ₩168m on ~₩23bn micro biotech; OP/NP not disclosed. Why UP: Step-change revenue vs near-zero run-rate is an earnings positive print after yesterday’s Phase-2 fail. Why 8%+: Quarterly sales ≈20% of mcap on thin KOSDAQ biotech = shock/vol class. Why p≈32%: After-close→next open leftover, but haircut for blank OP (one-time license risk) and live already +~2% AH.

DART 20261001900342

Best paper arb idea (Thu open): Micron FQ4 beat + guide overnight vs Wed KR foreign dump (Samsung −1.47% / Hynix +0.62% fade from +3% high) and ADR prem still ~+40%. Watch 09:00 auction reclaim on 000660 vs fade, BN−HL SKHX spread (~+15 bp), and whether foreign selling persists. Paper Seoul rule: NO (Leg A +0.62% fails ≤−8%; Leg B prem +40.27% would pass alone). Research/paper only. Field: /workspace/hynix-2026-10-01-am.md.

Live marks refreshed 2026-10-01 07:55 HKT / 2026-10-01 08:55 KST (BN pull ~07:38–07:42; HL xyz 200 after cooldown). Research/paper only. No fills.

Pair	BN−HL (bp)	BN lastFR	HL funding/hr
BTCUSDT / BTC	−2.78	8.2270e-05	1.2500e-05
ETHUSDT / ETH	−6.53	5.0230e-05	1.2500e-05
SOLUSDT / SOL	+2.28	−8.6140e-05	4.7929e-06
SKHYUSDT / xyz:SKHY	+7.77	0.0000e+00	-2.1913e-05
SKHYNIXUSDT / xyz:SKHX	+15.20	0.0000e+00	1.2614e-04

Marks: BN SKHY 185.19 / HL 185.05; BN SKHYNIX 1311.09 / HL SKHX 1309.1. Next BN funding all five 08:00 HKT. Widest gap: SKHX +15.2 bp.

Paper only. HL funding is hourly (×8 ≠ matched BN 8h). SKHYNIX ~4h cadence. No HL SKHYNIX symbol. Carry ignores fees/borrow/liq. Caveat: HL 429 once this fire then OK; BN via www.binance.com/fapi (direct fapi sometimes geo-blocked).

Ticker	Follow	Note
AVGO	Y	Live. Standing Y. Unchanged.
MU	Y	FQ4 printed Wed AH: $54.23bn / non-GAAP EPS $33.42; Q1 guide $61.5bn±1.5bn — constructive memory calendar into Thu KR; already Y.
NVDA	Y	Live / HC. Standing; Ming-Chi HC CCL / CPO PRIOR still color.
MRVL	Y	Unchanged.
XPEV	Y	Standing Y.
META	Y	Standing Y / booked color.
AMD	Y	Standing Y.
LITE	Y	Standing Y. OCS PRIOR color.
ORCL	Y wait	Wait sleeve. Unchanged.
NIO	Y caution	China concentration. Unchanged.
TSLA	caution	Caution stack intact.
SPCX	watch	Watch, not a Y.
EOSE / EOS	avoid	Still avoid.
PLTR / AAPL / RIVN	N	Unchanged.
DELL	watch title	Not a Y (initiation still paywalled).

2026-10-01 07:55 HKT / 2026-10-01 08:55 KST. No brand-new Y ticker. Paper.

PREOPEN → OPEN 09:00 KST — Thu 1 Oct 2026. Attractive list EMPTY besides Hynix desk. Wed cash: KOSPI 6,838.04 (−0.48%); 000660 ₩1,776,000 (+0.62%); 005930 ₩268,500 (−1.47%). Foreign −₩2.05tn / inst −₩768bn. Won 1,352.8. SKHY Wed $184.15; prem ≈ +40.27%. HSI Wed 24,613.27 (+0.37%); HK closed Thu National Day. No material 000660 DART keep. data.krx missing.

DART live pack (≥Wed 30 15:40 KST): 14 keeps — NEW INNOAX 296640 UP 3-8% quarterly ₩350/sh 5.6%; IS Dongseo; CK Solution; Korea Line; GRT / Shaperon / Abion pack.

Zephyr: ‘Very interesting — Anthropic will buy around 5GW of compute from Broadcom.’

Implication: Constructive AVGO (Y-list) AI-ASIC / custom-silicon demand + Anthropic capex path. Stacks on PRIOR Anthropic SpaceX compute and afternoon ORCL–Tencent lease. Soft for Google-TPU / Broadcom HBM pull-through into memory tape.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105607529372004492

Jukan on Micron call: most valuable comment is 2028 supply expected even tighter than 2026 — substantial 2028 volume already contracted via LTAs; rejects Street oversupply-2028 claims; argues memory P/E should re-rate if demand locked through 2028.

Implication: Core constructive MU / 000660 / SKHY / Samsung memory multiple narrative — extends afternoon beat/guide confirmation into multi-year tightness. Soft bullish HBM ASP durability vs short-cycle fade thesis.

x.com/jukan05/status/2105544291800297587

Jukan (w/ HBM pricing Q&A screenshot): Broadcom HBM procurement now roughly on par with NVIDIA — same price level, reversing prior NVDA-favored terms; TW sources say TPU volumes may exceed NVIDIA’s in 2027. Companion 2027 memory outlook Substack absorbed.

Implication: Constructive AVGO / GOOGL-TPU HBM pull + seller pricing power for Samsung/Hynix; soft mixed for NVDA share-of-accelerator framing into 2027. Reinforces HBM ASP / buyer-volume concentration narrative.

x.com/jukan05/status/2105581560632312312

Zephyr ‘I wonder who the customer is 🤔😏’ + GlobeNewswire clip: Coherent (COHR) sampling 300mm high-thermal-conductivity SiC substrates to leading AI semiconductor partners (thermal management for AI/HPC).

Implication: Soft constructive COHR / advanced substrate thermal path — pairs with PRIOR Vital Optics InP / optical-CPO stack. Materials winner color, not a near KR cash print.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105582895440306527

PRIOR (aft): Jukan flags FT: Oracle signs ~$7bn deal to lease compute capacity to Tencent — largest Tencent overseas cloud lease; ~100k advanced AI chips across Oracle SEA DCs (5yr); ~30% upfront; weighed on Tencent 2Q FCF.

Implication: Constructive ORCL (Wait sleeve) AI-cloud / GPU-lease demand + China AI compute off-shore path via SEA. Soft for NVDA-supply stack into Oracle; Tencent AI catch-up color.

x.com/jukan05/status/2105498127189107048

PRIOR (aft): Jukan: Japan’s PCB export unit prices are skyrocketing — METI/Meritz chart shows monthly avg PCB ¥/m² accelerating through 2025 into mid-2026 peak above ~¥100k/m².

Implication: Constructive AI-infra PCB/CCL ASP tape (pairs with PRIOR Ming-Chi HC CCL / Shengyi NVL576). Soft for KR/JP PCB suppliers into AI server boards.

x.com/jukan05/status/2105448244973392222

PRIOR (aft): AJ on Micron print: HC earnings estimate beat Street, and Q1’27 estimate is very close to MU guidance — Street must raise substantially to catch up.

Implication: Constructive MU (Y-list) / memory process confirmation — stacks on FQ4 beat+guide; read-through constructive for 000660 / SKHY / Samsung. Evening Jukan 2028-LTA NEW extends this.

x.com/alojoh/status/2105396666551398587

PRIOR (aft): Zephyr ‘LFG!!!’ QT Micron FQ4’26: rev $54.23B / EPS $33.42 beat; Q1’27 guide rev $61.5B±1.5 / EPS $38.15±1; GM ~87%; Cloud Memory $16.3B — record FY26, stronger FY27 commentary.

Implication: Priority-handle confirmation of MU beat/guide — constructive memory/HBM demand into KR names.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105388693167255631

PRIOR (aft): Zephyr: ‘Google back at Number 3’ — DeepMind Gemini 4 Argon eval table leads many benches vs GPT-6 Astra / Claude Opus 5.5.

Implication: Soft constructive GOOGL / Gemini model-race color — AI-lab competitive tape; not a near KR cash print.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105388983329104051

PRIOR (aft): Zephyr QT AMD MI455/MI400 $28k/$20k ‘very competitive’ claim: ‘Not possible — just 432GB of HBM costs $12k–$14k.’

Implication: Tempers AMD cheap-pricing narrative vs NVDA — HBM BOM alone challenges those ASPs. Soft mixed for AMD; constructive for HBM ASP.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105304786728051173

PRIOR (eve): Jukan + TrendForce chart: DRAM/NAND contract prices — HBM blended 4Q26F +15–20% (vs 3Q26E +8–13%); conventional DRAM 4Q +10–15%; NAND 4Q +15–20%.

Implication: Constructive for 000660 / SKHY / Samsung memory — HBM ASP acceleration is core desk tape; pairs with evening 2028-LTA NEW.

x.com/jukan05/status/2105287840284438882

PRIOR (eve): Zephyr on Ming-Chi HC CCL: hydrocarbons win Dk/Df vs glass, but soft board / high CTE warpage / copper-adhesion risk; tech immature vs PTFE — questions NVDA path for Rubin Ultra.

Implication: Nuances HC-CCL UP — materials path for NVL576 still open; soft temper on CCL/PCB winners until spec locks.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105291031189311696

PRIOR (eve): Jukan+Zephyr RT Ming-Chi: Nvidia testing glass-free hydrocarbon CCL (+HC PP) for Rubin Ultra NVL576 switch-tray PCB (2H27 MP); Shengyi lead — not final select.

Implication: Constructive AI-infra PCB/CCL into NVL576 — pairs with LITE OCS / CPO path; 2H27 timing.

x.com/mingchikuo/status/2105199423680893343

PRIOR (aft): Jukan RT: $LITE OCS setup — Street models whole co ~$9.6B rev / ~$3.4B NI FY28; his work says OCS alone can do $10B+ rev / ~$3B profit by 2028 (+$GOOGL).

Implication: Constructive LITE (Y-list) optical/OCS upside vs Street — stacks on NVDA CPO / Spectrum-X path.

x.com/X______0x/status/2105104559274340596

PRIOR (AM): Jukan flags The Information — Anthropic discloses $84.5bn SpaceX compute agreements.

Implication: Large constructive AI-compute demand signal — now reinforced by evening Zephyr Anthropic–Broadcom ~5GW NEW.

x.com/jukan05/status/2104958339520311458

PRIOR (PM): Nvidia CPO scale-out faster than expected; Spectrum-X CPO mass production; shipment path 15k→100k (4Q26→2027). Likes LITE/AVGO-path names.

Implication: Constructive NVDA optical/CPO + LITE (Y-list) — reinforced by LITE OCS PRIOR.

x.com/sssjeffpu/status/2104803715010154519

Method: api.fxtwitter.com/2/profile/{handle}/statuses (HTTP 200 ×5). Cutoff for NEW: after 2026-10-01 13:48 HKT. Afternoon NEW demoted to PRIOR (aft). Priority: @alojoh @citrini @zephyr_z9 @jukan05 @BowTiedBull. home_available=false.