Markets desk

Morning report — Mon 26 Oct 2026 ~07:50 HKT / 08:50 KST (research/paper)

Research/paper only. No live orders or recommendations. KRX opens 09:00 KST (08:00 HKT); pack written pre-open. Age cut: news Fri 23 + weekend + Mon 26; DART ≥ Fri 23 Oct 15:40 KST. Do not treat Yahoo prev-close as a Monday gap — Fri official close is last cash.

today Mon pre-open after Fri bounce + weekend Hynix capital-return media. Fri cash: KOSPI 5,550.30 (+0.30%), Samsung ₩215,500 (+0.47%), SK hynix ₩1,277,000 (+4.42%) (vs Thu ₩1,223,000); Yonhap FX 15:30 1,324.6. HK Fri: HSI 23,093.37 (+0.69%), HSTECH 3,871.66 (+2.05%); Zhipu HK$499.00 (+8.29%), MiniMax HK$187.60 (+16.74%). SKHY Fri RTH $137.02; same-session prem ~+42.1%. Weekend X: Jukan $12B special dividend (=80% Kioxia stake-sale gains) — local KR media, not DART; Daishin 8-high HBM path; CXMT refused DDR5 dump. AJ TSLA Caution stack (Waymo / robotaxi burn / $1B media). DART KEEP×1 (Senko residual only).

watchlists US AJ: NEW rows 0. Standing Y: AVGO, MU, MRVL, NVDA (HC), XPEV, META, AMD. Wait ORCL; Caution TSLA, NIO (TSLA Caution reinforced — Waymo lead + robotaxi cash-burn + Elon $1B media/Starlink colour); Watch SPCX; Avoid EOSE, EOS; N PLTR, AAPL, RIVN, SNDK. Korea attractive: EMPTY (Finance MCP needsAuth). Hardcore unread. NVDA Fri $210.96. Outlook AJ trade-alerts app-teaser only (no hardcore).

asia news 8 items (a 3 / b 4 / c 1). MiniMax/Zhipu Fri rebound; KOSPI +0.30% / Samsung+Hynix Solidigm bounce; HSI+HSTECH; Solidigm dilemma colour; Caixin Fed-week / fiscal.

X Priority authors via parent X MCP: n_new=18 since Fri eve ~21:51 HKT. Sentiment mixed / medium: Jukan UP Hynix $12B special-div media + CXMT discipline + iPhone Duo orders vs AJ TSLA Caution + Zephyr neo-lab consolidation + BowTiedBull AI-DC debt shut. Home unavailable; hardcore unread.

DART 1 keep after age cut (floor Fri 15:40 KST): Senko 347000 UP 1-3%. no 000660 filing in Mon age window (Solidigm was Fri pre-open — outside ≥15:40 floor; already scored Fri). Last watch scan 2026-10-26 09:17 KST261026000100. Senko residual already forwarded — not urgent user ping. ping_needed=false.

funding BN vs HL (07:48 HKT): BTC +1.10 / ETH +5.88 / SOL -0.26; SKHY +23.15 bp, SKHYNIX/SKHX +21.57 bp. HL SKHY/SKHX mark−oracle (-38.6 / -50.7 bp). Next BN 08:00 HKT. Paper only.

HYROX Warsaw HYROX: OPEN since Wed 14 Oct (PL saleStatus=onSale; PRO MEN Friday active @ 600 PLN; last_pinged_id pl-page-onsale-2026-10-14). Outlook Mon morning: Meal Planner / Youngstars HK / Hanoi / HK Relay only — no new Warsaw OPEN/sold-out/wave. ping_needed=false.

Ticker	Follow	Note
AVGO	Y	Standing Y. Unchanged.
MU	Y	Standing Y. Unchanged. Paper only.
NVDA	Y (HC)	Standing HC. Fri $210.96. Weekend Anthropic custom-chip / Ibiden colour — no sleeve change.
MRVL	Y	Standing Y. Unchanged. Outlook trade-alert app-teaser (hardcore unread — no invent).
XPEV	Y	Standing Y. Unchanged.
META	Y	Standing Y. Unchanged. Prior Meta FCF/CapEx colour already on Thu smash — no sleeve change.
AMD	Y	Standing Y. Unchanged.
ORCL	Wait	Wait sleeve. Unchanged.
TSLA	Caution	Caution reinforced weekend: AJ Waymo-as-leader vs Elon narrative; robotaxi crowded cash-burn; Elon $1B into media/Starlink colour. No Avoid upgrade on public X. Hardcore unread.
NIO	Caution	Unchanged.
SPCX	Watch	Watch standing. No fresh Mon cadence print. Paper only.
EOSE	Avoid	Avoid (standing with EOS).
EOS	Avoid	Avoid standing.
PLTR	N	N.
AAPL	N	N. Jukan iPhone Duo +30% order colour — no sleeve invent.
RIVN	N	N.
SNDK	N	N.

Paper only. Hardcore unread (protected; no browser). AJ portal not accessed.

KRX cash opens Mon 26 Oct 09:00 KST / 08:00 HKT (PREOPEN now). Attractive list: EMPTY (Finance MCP needsAuth — no invented Markets promotion; 000660 on Hynix desk only; DART keeps stay on DART board).

Fri 23: KOSPI 5,550.30 (+0.30%) (Yonhap EN). 005930 ₩215,500 (+0.47%); 000660 ₩1,277,000 (+4.42%). Solidigm Pre-IPO stop (Fri pre-open DART) helped chip bounce. Weekend: Jukan local-media $12B special dividend colour (not a DART keep). KR retail ~$300m levered Samsung/Hynix products (Jukan) — MIXED fuel/unwind risk.

DART KEEP×1 in Mon age window (Senko 347000 UP 1-3% Fri after-close residual). no 000660 DART in ≥ Fri 15:40 floor (Solidigm was Fri 07:33 — already scored). Q3 IR still Tue 28 Oct 09:00 KST.

MiniMax-W 0100.HK +16.74% to HK$187.60 — rebound above IPO after Thu smash

Yahoo official Fri close: MiniMax-W (0100.HK) HK$187.60 (+16.74% vs Thu 160.70; range 155.20–191.70; vol ~24.4m). Caixin Thu wire had flagged MiniMax below IPO amid AI pricing competition / product gap; Fri bounce reclaims offer-area optics. HK AI tape firmed with HSTECH.

Implication: a-rank China AI / HK: violent Thu→Fri mean-revert on MiniMax after below-IPO print — constructive for HK China-AI optics into Mon, still idiosyncratic vs Seoul cash.

finance.yahoo.com/quote/0100.HK/

Zhipu 2513.HK +8.29% to HK$499.00 — China AI names rebound with MiniMax

Yahoo official Fri close: Zhipu (02513) HK$499.00 (+8.29% vs Thu 460.80; range 444.60–501.00; vol ~15.3m). Same-session HK AI rebound as MiniMax +16.7% / HSTECH +2.05%.

Implication: a-rank with MiniMax: HK China-AI beta bounced Fri after Thu wash. Soft constructive into Mon HSTECH — not a Korea same-session print.

finance.yahoo.com/quote/2513.HK/

Caixin: China’s smartphones get pricier as AI strains chip supply

Caixin In Depth (23 Oct): smartphone ASPs rising as AI features strain chip supply — China device-side AI hardware cost colour into weekend.

Implication: a-rank China AI hardware: ASP/cost pressure narrative supportive of tight advanced-chip demand read; soft adjacency for memory/logic pricing into Mon.

www.caixinglobal.com/2026-10-23/in-depth-chinas-smartphones-get-pricier-

KOSPI +0.30% to 5,550.30 — bargain hunt after Thu −3.52% smash

Yonhap EN Fri: KOSPI +16.53 / +0.30% to 5,550.30 after opening −2.36%; retail turned net buyers after early selling. US overnight mixed (Nasdaq −2.6%). Won 1,324.6 /USD at 15:30 (+0.4 vs prior close).

Implication: Core b-rank: partial Friday bounce, not full Thu recovery. Watch Mon open follow-through vs Jukan $12B special-div media colour. Paper only.

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20261023006400320

Samsung ₩215,500 (+0.47%) / SK hynix ₩1,277,000 (+4.42%) — Solidigm stop bounce

Yonhap/KOSPI200 Fri official: Samsung ₩215,500 (+0.47%); SK hynix ₩1,277,000 (+54,000 / +4.42%) vs Thu ₩1,223,000. Bounce after Fri pre-open Solidigm Pre-IPO stop DART; Korean wires cite overhang relief. Do NOT invent Mon gap from Yahoo prev-close.

Implication: Chip beta partial reverse of Thu smash. Hynix desk: Fri official ₩1,277,000 is last cash into Mon. Weekend Jukan $12B special-div = media only (not DART). Paper only.

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20261023007400320

HSI +0.69% to 23,093.37; HSTECH +2.05% to 3,871.66

Yahoo Fri: Hang Seng 23,093.37 (+0.69% / +158.67 vs Thu 22,934.68). HK wires: Hang Seng TECH +2.05% to 3,871.66 after Thu −5.03% smash. Turnover ~HK$250bn.

Implication: Seoul + HK both bounced Fri after Thu risk-off — Asia tone less smashed into Mon open. b-rank.

finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EHSI/

Solidigm IPO halt — shareholder protection vs funding-capacity dilemma

MoneyToday EN (25 Oct): SK hynix Solidigm Pre-IPO/IPO review stop crystallises duplicate-listing politics vs US NAND funding-path loss; cites National Assembly audit pressure and regulator duplicate-listing history.

Implication: b-rank Hynix/NAND weekend colour on already-known Fri DART MIXED keep — reinforces overhang-kill vs growth-capital two-way. Not a fresh Mon DART stamp.

www.mt.co.kr/en/stock/2026/10/25/2026102514593855645

Caixin week-ahead: Fed decision week; China fiscal revenue slips

Caixin (23–24 Oct): Week Ahead Oct 26–Nov 1 flags Fed rate decision + German President China visit; separate piece notes China’s fiscal revenue slip as land-sale slump deepens.

Implication: c-rank macro calendar into Mon–Fri: Fed week + China fiscal soft colour — backdrop not a single-name cash print.

www.caixinglobal.com/2026-10-23/the-week-ahead-oct-26nov-1-german-presid

Sources: parent X MCP get_users_posts on public handles (NEW window after Fri eve ~13:51 UTC). @alojohhardcore skipped (protected/unauthorized). Home/Following unavailable (no computerUse) — sentiment inferred from priority authors only.

Jukan: Daishin: CSPs/AI labs shelved lower-stack HBM (4-high/6-high) for low-end inference; 8-high again the path.

Implication: MIXED/UP HBM stack mix — demand consolidating on 8-high vs prior low-stack inference ask. Soft for low-stack narrative; constructive for Hynix/Samsung HBM product mix into Mon open.

x.com/jukan05/status/2114499959563370930

Jukan: TW media: iPhone Duo sold out launch day; Apple asks suppliers +30% orders.

Implication: UP Apple supply-chain / memory adjacency colour into Mon — constructive for KR/TW component names if order bump sticks. Paper only.

x.com/jukan05/status/2114489196501192739

Jukan: SK HYNIX PLANS $12B SPECIAL DIVIDEND = 80% of gains from Kioxia stake sale — local KR media.

Implication: UP 000660 capital-return colour into Mon open (media not DART). Complements Oct 28 IR / buyback-cancel narrative. Confirm via KIND/DART before sizing — not a filing stamp yet.

x.com/jukan05/status/2114482386914415096

Jukan: Cybersecurity stocks caught up with semis on YTD performance.

Implication: MIXED rotation colour — cyber catching AI/semis YTD after JP cyber surge + Quest hack week. Soft crowded AI beta optics.

x.com/jukan05/status/2114360604215673239

Jukan: Dylan Patel: Anthropic already building custom chip, aiming half the time OpenAI took.

Implication: UP custom-ASIC / foundry adjacency colour — more AI silicon buyers beyond NVDA stack. Not Korea cash same-session.

x.com/jukan05/status/2114333487201440066

Jukan: TW server maker asked CXMT for DDR5; CXMT declined to sell — rebuttal to rock-bottom dump narrative.

Implication: UP KR memory pricing/discipline colour vs CXMT dump fears — constructive for Samsung/Hynix ASP narrative into Mon.

x.com/jukan05/status/2114231027262759400

Jukan: KR retail net ~$300m into 14 single-stock leveraged products on Samsung + SK hynix Oct 1–.

Implication: MIXED KR retail leverage rebuild after Thu smash — fuel for bounce OR forced-unwind risk on another down day.

x.com/jukan05/status/2114186093784694964

Jukan: KR media: Exynos 2700 beat Qualcomm latest in Samsung internal tests.

Implication: UP Samsung mobile AP / Exynos colour — soft for QCOM adjacency; constructive 005930 narrative if confirmed.

x.com/jukan05/status/2114165051343180092

Jukan: zartbotF on DeepSeek open-sourcing ‘money-printing machine’ — 80% GM via org design.

Implication: MIXED China OSS model competitive colour — continues DeepSeek cost/margin narrative into HK AI names.

x.com/jukan05/status/2113850503256039664

Jukan: TW media: Intel/AMD/NVDA combined $5B advance payments to TW substrate makers (Intel $3B, AMD/NVDA $1B each).

Implication: UP substrate / ABF supply-chain colour — advance-pay lock-in vs capacity tightness. Complements SEMCO/Nittobo GF thread.

x.com/jukan05/status/2113769187114090509

Zephyr: We are going to see a lot of consolidation next year. Most of them will not survive. (re neo-lab GPU-capacity resell model)

Implication: DOWN neo-lab / AI-infra funding colour — consolidation + survival filter into 2027. Soft for pure-play AI raise names.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2114106143341678710

Zephyr: Moonshot will release Kimi K3.1 Cyber soon via Fireworks/Modal/Baseten.

Implication: MIXED China OSS / cyber-capability colour — continues K3.1 Pro narrative; soft closed-inference moat optics.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2114140095372779869

Zephyr: Nvidia uses Ibiden more.

Implication: UP Ibiden / substrate adjacency colour under NVDA packaging. Not Korea cash.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2113784177338491147

AJ: Why did Elon use that $1B to buy back TSLA? (quotes CNN/CBS parent stake colour)

Implication: TSLA Caution reinforced — capital-allocation / narrative-control colour. Standing Caution only.

x.com/alojoh/status/2114373747113349245

AJ: Waymo as real robotaxi leader by fully self-driving fleet count (vs Elon FSD narrative).

Implication: TSLA Caution — Waymo lead on deployed robotaxi units undercuts FSD/robotaxi monopoly narrative.

x.com/alojoh/status/2114273725457809708

AJ: Robotaxi competition heats up → crowded, rock-bottom prices, massive cash burn like EVs; unlikely globally massive subsidies.

Implication: TSLA Caution — robotaxi unit-econ bear case (cash burn + no mega-subsidy). No Avoid upgrade on public X.

x.com/alojoh/status/2113827777325539779

BowTiedBull: Quotes Elon: debt markets shut for AI-datacenter-only cos; even good cos 8–9%+ debt.

Implication: DOWN AI-infra funding / CoreWeave-class credit colour into Mon — soft for levered AI DC names.

x.com/BowTiedBull/status/2114461423447470528

Citrini: Pronounced divide: AI-side scaling believers vs biology-side on what AI can do in bio.

Implication: MIXED AI×bio narrative — continues Citrini Therapeutics / scorpion-antivenom thread. Soft single-name; theme colour only.

x.com/citrini/status/2114202754239344687

PRIOR (Fri): X trend: Credo Technology stock drops sharply after competitor comments.

Implication: DOWN CRDO / AI connectivity optics colour — soft for optical/transceiver adjacency after Thu AI smash. Complements AAOI weakness colour. Paper only.

x.com/search?q=Credo%20Technology

PRIOR (Fri): X trend / GS colour: hedge funds pile into record short positions on global stocks (shorts outpace longs ~5:1).

Implication: DOWN risk positioning colour — crowded short / delever narrative after AI rout. Squeeze risk if rebound. Paper only.

x.com/i/trending/2113279730132844614

PRIOR (Fri): Schaeffers: Mid East tensions push WTI >$101; tech extending sell-off; 10y Treasury ~4.97%.

Implication: DOWN US risk / duration colour into Fri US session — oil spike + rates firm under AI-doubt tape. Soft beta. Paper only.

x.com/schaeffers

PRIOR (Fri): Schaeffers: $MRNA −3.7% pre-bell after partial data leak on Merck co-developed cancer-vaccine trial.

Implication: DOWN MRNA / MRK adjacency colour — idiosyncratic biotech, not AJ sleeve. Paper only.

x.com/schaeffers

PRIOR (Fri): AJ quotes Elon: 'if you have geofenced areas, you don't have real self driving' — right from the horse's mouth (vs robotaxi geofence walk-back colour).

Implication: TSLA Caution reinforced — FSD/robotaxi Level-5 credibility colour into Fri US hours. Standing Caution only; no Avoid on public X. Paper only.

x.com/alojoh/status/2113593664073073063

PRIOR (Fri): AJ: Is Meta a good investment at $644? Full HC research report (Meta Post Q3 2026 Investment Memo) now available to HC members.

Implication: MIXED/UP colour for META (standing Y) — public teaser only; no portal scrape; no sleeve invent from title. Complements Thu Asia Meta FCF/CapEx-doubt tape. Paper only.

x.com/alojoh/status/2113589919784267855

PRIOR (Fri): Jukan: Taiwanese substrate execs still claim Nittobo hates Samsung so SEMCO can't expand GF capacity — laughs it off as outdated.

Implication: UP SEMCO (009150) glass-fiber / ABF expand colour — pushes back on JP GF supply-block narrative after morning Unitika +30% GF. Complements Thu SEMCO ABF advances. Paper only.

x.com/jukan05/status/2113572442182758841

PRIOR (Fri): Zephyr RT: Kimi K3.1 Pro tech blog briefly appeared — calling it 'Pro'.

Implication: MIXED China OSS model competitive colour — continues K3.1 / open-model cost narrative. Soft closed-inference moat optics.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2113569877508366481

PRIOR (Fri): NVIDIA + SPIL (ASE): optical-engine capacity in Taiwan → 15× by mid-2027, ~30× by end-2028 for CPO / AI network optics.

Implication: UP ASE / SPIL optical-engine + NVDA CPO supply-chain colour — constructive AI packaging/optics adjacency vs Thu AI-doubt smash. Not Korea cash. Paper only.

x.com/ECONOMYINQUIRY/status/2113558292874359082

PRIOR (Fri): Zephyr: huge surge in cyberattacks against Japanese companies and websites (Capcom account-leak follow-on colour).

Implication: MIXED JP cyber / spend narrative — continues Fri morn Quest/hack-model thread. Soft for cyber defensive optics; not a single-name cash print.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2113552552856096967

PRIOR (Fri aft): SK hynix Oct 28 earnings may reshape shareholder returns; completed ₩40tn buyback Oct 21 early; plans cancel ~24.07m shares (~3.3%); aims >50% return.

Implication: UP Hynix (000660) capital-return / Oct 28 preview. Complements morning Solidigm Pre-IPO stop. Paper only.

x.com/ECONOMYINQUIRY/status/2113505918172422419

PRIOR (Fri aft): S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended sharply lower as revived AI doubts hit tech.

Implication: DOWN US equity / AI-beta colour — Home tape risk-off into Fri US close. Soft for crowded AI names. Paper only.

x.com/Reuters/status/2113500677473198545

Live marks pulled 07:48 HKT Mon (BN via www.binance.com/fapi/v1 — fapi.binance.com geo-blocked; HL api.hyperliquid.xyz/info metaAndAssetCtxs default + dex=xyz; fundingHistory 24h). Research series, paper only.

Pair	BN−HL (bp)	BN lastFR	HL funding/hr	HL 24h sum	mark vs index/oracle bp (BN / HL)
BTCUSDT / BTC	+1.10	1.8920e-05	2.3784e-06	+2.455e-04	-6.19 / -4.75
ETHUSDT / ETH	+5.88	7.7890e-05	3.0279e-06	+2.887e-04	-7.76 / -6.03
SOLUSDT / SOL	-0.26	9.0200e-05	4.6980e-06	+2.350e-04	-6.22 / -5.19
SKHYUSDT / xyz:SKHY	+23.15	0.0000e+00	1.0450e-04	+4.037e-04	-40.02 / -38.55
SKHYNIXUSDT / xyz:SKHX	+21.57	4.9600e-06	1.5025e-04	+3.700e-04	-55.35 / -50.69

Marks: BN SKHY 139.85 / HL 139.53; BN SKHYNIX 963.78 / HL SKHX 961.71. SKHY/SKHX BN−HL spreads +23.2 / +21.6 bp. Last BN prints: SKHYUSDT Sun 16:00 +0.00e+00 · Mon 00:00 +2.40e-04; SKHYNIXUSDT Mon 00:00 +0.00e+00 · Mon 04:00 +0.00e+00. HL 24h: xyz:SKHY +4.04e-04, xyz:SKHX +3.70e-04. HL SKHY mark -38.6 bp / SKHX -50.7 bp vs oracle.

Next funding: Binance next print 08:00 HKT (00 UTC) relative to this 07:48 snap; Hyperliquid hourly. No HL SKHYNIX — hedge is xyz:SKHX. Usable spreads: SKHY / SKHYNIX mark gaps (majors tight).

Estimated carry (per 8h at live rates; BN 4h×2 for SKHYNIX; HL×8): BTC ≈ 0.00 bp |diff| · ETH ≈ 0.54 bp |diff| · SOL ≈ 0.53 bp |diff| · SKHY ≈ 8.36 bp |diff| · SKHYNIX ≈ 11.92 bp |diff|. Snapshot only — fees/inventory/liquidation can erase it. Paper only; no live orders.

Pre-open read (arithmetic vs Fri cash): BN SKHYNIXUSDT mark 963.78 (07:48 HKT) vs Fri cash USD $964.06 → perp -0.03%. BN SKHYUSDT 139.85 vs Fri ADR $137.02 → +2.07%. HL SKHY/SKHX mark−oracle -38.6 / -50.7 bp.

Paper Seoul rule: NO. Leg A Fri +4.42% fails (needs ≤ −8%); Leg B premium ~+42.1% passes (needs ≥ +40%). Research flag only — paper only; no SKHY short / no xyz perps / no live.

Context: Fri cash bounce on Solidigm overhang relief after Thu smash. Weekend X: Jukan $12B special-div media + Daishin 8-high HBM path + CXMT DDR5 refuse + KR retail leverage rebuild. Related perps: BN SKHYUSDT / SKHYNIXUSDT; HL xyz:SKHY / xyz:SKHX only. Best paper idea: none live — Seoul rule fails; watch Mon auction leftover on special-div media confirmation (DART/KIND) vs fade of Fri Solidigm bounce. Paper only.