Markets desk

Wed 23 Sep 2026 ~07:52 HKT — morning report

Research/paper only. No live. Age-cut: Tue–Fri; news Tue+Wed only; DART from Tue 2026-09-22 15:40 KST. Session: KR PREOPEN (cash 09:00 KST) · HK OPEN · US Tue RTH done.

watchlists Korea attractive EMPTY (besides Hynix desk; age-window DART = Heung-A Shipping guarantee + KTis cancel + HL D&I + Hyundai E&C + Xplus). AJ: NEW overnight — XPEV humanoids reinforce standing Y; MU +23% since Jul call = confirmation. Standing Y unchanged (AVGO/MU/MRVL/NVDA/XPEV/META/AMD/LITE); ORCL wait; TSLA caution↑↑; SPCX watch; EOSE avoid; NIO caution; EOS avoid; DELL watch title; INTC color (HBM base-die PRIOR, not AJ Y).

funding BN fapi GEO-BLOCKED. HL xyz:SKHX mark ~1,409.6 / fund ~+0.6 bp; xyz:SKHY ~196.11 / fund -0.23 bp. BN↔HL spread N/A. Seoul paper rule NO (Tue cash −1.50%, need ≤−8%; ADR prem ~+44.2% does not alone clear). No fills/recs.

Hynix Tue cash 000660 ₩1,840,000 (−28k / −1.50% vs Mon wire ₩1,868,000) · For −217,556 Inst −159,679 Ind −217,329 · foreign own 50.15% (Naver dealTrend 20260922; deal close ₩1,841,000). Samsung Tue ₩276,500 (+0.91%). KOSPI Tue 7,017.91 (+0.15%) after intrad 7,171.44. SKHY Tue RTH $195.37 · FX Yonhap Tue 15:30 1,358.2 · parity ~$135.5 · ADR prem ~+44.2%. KIND/DART: no 000660 keep. Tape: eSSD/Q4 CSP orders (BK/TrendForce); Alibaba Zhenwu/Qwen Apsara; JPM 16Hi HBM ≥2029 (Jukan). Paper Seoul NO.

news n=6 in age window (Tue+Wed; Mon dropped) — KOSPI fade after early +2%; Alibaba Apsara 5–10T + Zhenwu V900; eSSD Q4>Q3; HK AI Z.AI 742 / MiniMax 286; Ant agentic commerce.

X Home unavailable. Sentiment mixed / medium. n_new=4 since eve 22:15 HKT — Jukan JPM 16Hi≥2029; Citrini Agentic Reality; AJ XPEV humanoids + MU confirmation. Eve Samsung HBM4 / glass / Intel HBM5 demoted PRIOR.

DART Age-window keeps: Aprogen Biologics 003060 mixed 1-3% / p≈24% (₩29.1bn 1y loan to Ainsfac — 10.5% equity / ~11% mcap @15:54 after-close; same-day ₩20bn raise pay-in); K3I 431190 mixed 8%+ / p≈28% (₩21.0bn control SPA at ₩7,200/sh for 39.96% block to Jay's Commerce — 65% premium to close @15:47 after-close; live already +13%/high +26%); EcoPlastic 038110 mixed 1-3% / p≈22% (₩52.0bn SPC ABL guarantee to Hana — 14.5% equity / ~63% mcap @15:40 after-close; own-receivables financing); Inter-M 017250 up 3-8% / p≈30% (cancel 0.997m already-held treasury ~4.74% / book ₩1.03bn @14:51); Eco&Dream 101360 up 3-8% / p≈12% (₩17.75bn high-Ni NCM precursor PO to Umicore — ~13% mcap / 12.5% sales; no advance; supply thru mid-Nov @14:36 — live +4.0%/high +8.8% don’t-chase); Heung-A Shipping 003280 mixed 1-3% / p≈18% (₩185.64bn SPC guarantee for 3×26K chemical-tanker newbuilds — 71% equity / ~43% mcap @12:15; Jun-1 facility shoe); KTis 058860 up 8%+ / p≈12% (cancel 3.40m already-held treasury ~9.8% of shares / book ₩9.93bn @10:22 — live already +16.9%/high +19.6%; don’t-chase); HL Holdings 060980 mixed 1-3% / p≈14% (₩90.0bn Seongsu Phase-2 office EPC via sub @09:36 — parent echo of 014790; affiliate REIT CP, no advance); HL D&I 014790 mixed 1-3% / p≈18% (₩90.0bn Seongsu Phase-2 @09:27); Hyundai E&C 000720 up 1-3% / p≈40% (₩882.8bn Gamcheon Zone-2 @08:26); Xplus 373200 mixed 8%+ / p≈40% (₩14.0bn Series-7 CB refinance @15:51 Tue). No 000660.

HYROX Warsaw still closed (“TICKET SALES START SOON!” / Get notified); Outlook OK — no Warsaw reg-open mail. No ping.

Unfaithful-disclosure designation NOTICE — delayed bankruptcy app + dismissal (Jul-31 → disclosed Sep-22)

2026-09-23 16:43 KST: Daeyang Metal (대양금속, 009190, KOSPI) received a KRX unfaithful-disclosure corporation designation NOTICE (불성실공시법인지정예고). Type: disclosure non-compliance (공시불이행). Content: delayed disclosure of a bankruptcy application dated 2026-07-31 (disclosed only 2026-09-22) and delayed disclosure of the dismissal of that bankruptcy application also dated 2026-07-31 (disclosed 2026-09-22). Notice date 2026-09-23. Trailing 1y cumulative penalty points: 0. Basis: KOSPI Market Disclosure Regulation Art. 33. Notes: issuer may object by 2026-10-07; concrete designation/penalty will be re-disclosed when fixed; if resulting penalty points ≥10, listing-eligibility substantive review may be triggered (KOSPI Listing Reg. Art. 48). Related filings: 2026-09-22 bankruptcy application + dismissal. rcpNo 20260923800684 / dcmNo 11591309 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (대양금속 matches). Live at enrich (Daum A009190 after cash close): ₩972 (−159 / −14.1% vs prev ₩1,131); high ₩1,047; low ₩802; vol 3.59m; mcap ≈ ₩427.5억 (₩42.75bn).

After the close, KRX put Daeyang Metal on unfaithful-disclosure designation notice for sitting on a Jul-31 bankruptcy application and its same-day dismissal until Sep-22. Down 3-8%: listing/governance second shoe on a ₩43bn name that already dumped −14% today on the bankruptcy pair; still a notice with an Oct-7 objection window (not final designation / not automatic ≥10-point review). After-close leftover only; tape already spent a large distress print → p≈30%.

Daum A009190 after close: ₩972 (−14.1%); high ₩1,047; low ₩802; mcap ₩42.75bn; vol 3.59m

DART

₩29.1bn 1y loan to Ainsfac (10.5% equity / ~11% mcap) — same-day ₩20bn raise pay-in companion

2026-09-23 15:54 KST: Aprogen Biologics (에이프로젠바이오로직스, 003060, KOSPI) filed a decision on a monetary loan (금전대여결정). Borrower: Ainsfac Co., Ltd. (아인스팩); relationship field blank "-". Loan amount: ₩29,100,000,000 (=₩29.1bn / 291억). Equity on the form (2025 YE consolidated): ₩277,566,948,359 (=₩277.57bn) → loan/equity 10.5%. Rate 4.6%. Term: 2026-09-28 → 2027-09-27 (may prepay/extend). Purpose: "strategic capital deployment for financial-structure improvement." Total loan balance after: ₩29.1bn. Board: 2026-09-23 (1 outside director present; auditor present). Collateral (notes): LP stakes in a new-tech investment partnership contributed by Ainsfac, plus Ainsfac controlling-shareholder equity. Borrower YE2025 summary: assets ₩13.113bn / equity ₩2.944bn / sales ₩23.646bn / NI ₩0.923bn — equity is ~10× smaller than the loan face. Same evening voluntary result filing 20260923800575 confirms the Sep-3 third-party placement paid in today: 12,706,481 shares / ₩20,000,001,094 (=₩20.0bn). Parent Aprogen (007460) re-filed the same loan as a subsidiary major-matter notice (rcp 20260923800573) — not a second loan. rcpNo 20260923800503 / dcmNo 11591104 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (Aprogen Biologics / 에이프로젠바이오로직스 matches). Live at enrich (Daum A003060 @~15:58 KST, after cash close): ₩1,639 (+38 / +2.37% vs prev ₩1,601); high ₩1,680 (+4.93%); vol 109,004; mcap ≈ ₩2,665억 (₩266.5bn); loan/mcap ≈ 10.9%.

What: After the cash close — and on the same day its ₩20.0bn third-party placement paid in — Aprogen Biologics resolved to lend ₩29.1bn (10.5% of YE2025 consol equity / ~11% of the ~₩266bn mcap) to unrelated Ainsfac Co. at 4.6% for one year from 28 Sep, secured by Ainsfac fund LP stakes and controlling-shareholder equity. Why mixed: real cash leaves the listed balance sheet into a borrower whose own equity is only ₩2.9bn — governance/credit deployment of raise proceeds, not an earnings event. Why 1-3% (not 3-8%/8%+): size is disclosure-material vs equity/mcap, but the instrument is a collateralized loan with a 1-year tenor beside an already-telegraphed raise — not a same-day cash-hole. Why p≈24%: after-close stamp; tape closed only +2.4%, so a modest overnight credit grind is unused; haircut for opaque-but-secured structure.

Daum A003060 ₩1,639 (+2.37% / high ₩1,680 +4.93%); vol 109,004; mcap ≈ ₩266.5bn; loan/equity 10.5%; loan/mcap ≈ 10.9%

DART

₩21.0bn control SPA at ₩7,200/sh (39.96% block) to Jay's Commerce — 65% premium to close

2026-09-23 15:47 KST: K3I (케이쓰리아이, 431190, KOSDAQ) filed a stock transfer agreement accompanying a change of largest shareholder (최대주주변경을수반하는주식양수도계약체결). Sellers: Lee Jae-young (이재영) 2,800,027 sh (37.40%) + three related parties (이서보/서흥덕/이현석) — prior largest shareholder and specials. Buyers: Jay's Commerce Co. (제이스커머스) 2,083,334 sh (27.83%) + Galaxy No.1 Investment Partnership (갤럭시1호투자조합) 833,333 sh (11.13%). Block: 2,916,667 shares (=39.96% of 7,486,442 issued) at ₩7,200/sh; total consideration ₩21,000,000,000 (=₩21.0bn / 210억). Payment: 10% deposit ₩2.1bn on 2026-09-23; 90% balance ₩18.9bn by 2026-11-26. New largest shareholder: Jay's Commerce (27.83%) effective 2026-11-26. Control: buyers to seat directors at a subsequent EGM; articles change to add business purposes on buyer request. No lock-up on transferred shares. Jay's Commerce (e-commerce; founded May 2018; CEO/max holder Kim Jin-ho 40%): YE2025 assets ₩5.836bn / equity ₩1.561bn / sales ₩6.869bn / NI ₩0.184bn. Seller Lee Jae-young falls from 45.00% to 7.60%. rcpNo 20260923900518 / dcmNo 11591076 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (K3I / 케이쓰리아이 matches). Live at enrich (Daum A431190 @~15:58 KST, after cash close): ₩4,360 (+510 / +13.25% vs prev ₩3,850); high ₩4,860 (+26.23%); vol ≈1.09m; mcap ≈ ₩326억 (₩32.64bn); deal price ₩7,200 = +65.1% premium to close / +87.0% vs prev; face/mcap ≈ 64.3%.

What: After the cash close, K3I's prior largest shareholder group agreed to sell 2,916,667 shares (39.96% of 7.49m issued) for ₩21.0bn at ₩7,200/sh to Jay's Commerce (27.83%, new largest) and Galaxy No.1 Investment Partnership (11.13%), with 10% down today and 90% by 26 Nov, plus buyer-designated directors at a follow-on EGM. Why mixed: real control transfer at a 65% premium to the ₩4,360 close, but the buyer is a ₩1.56bn-equity e-commerce vehicle — control-flip / shell path (Artist Studio / Nexa class), not a named strategic industrial bid. Why 8%+: face is ~64% of the ~₩33bn mcap and the deal price is far above tape — overnight gap class is 8%+ volatility, not a 3-8% grind. Why p≈28%: after-close stamp so the product is next open; same-day tape already +13%/+26% high before DART cuts unused leftover.

Daum A431190 ₩4,360 (+13.25% / high ₩4,860 +26.23%); vol ≈1.09m; shares 7,486,442; mcap ≈ ₩32.64bn; deal ₩7,200 = +65% vs close; face/mcap ≈ 64%

DART

₩52.0bn SPC ABL guarantee to Hana (14.5% equity / ~63% mcap) — own-receivables financing

2026-09-23 15:40 KST: EcoPlastic (에코플라스틱, 038110, KOSDAQ) filed a decision on debt guarantee for others (타인에대한채무보증결정). Debtor: Heungguk On Enterprise No.8 EcoPlastic LLC (흥국온기업제8호에코플라스틱 유한회사) — relationship: subsidiary. Creditor: Hana Bank. Debt (borrowed) amount: ₩40,000,000,000 (=₩40.0bn / 400억). Guarantee amount: ₩52,000,000,000 (=₩52.0bn / 520억) — 130% of the loan principal per the facility. Equity on the form (2025 YE consolidated): ₩359,728,114,713 (=₩359.73bn) → guarantee/equity 14.5%. Large-corporation filer: yes. Guarantee period: 2026-09-30 start → 2029-09-30 end (may change at contract). Total guarantee balance: ₩474,059,000,000 (=₩474.06bn). Board / decision date: 2026-09-23 (outside directors 0 present / 1 absent; auditor absent). Notes: parent joint-guarantees the SPC so it can borrow from Hana to acquire the Class-1 beneficiary interest issued under EcoPlastic’s monetary-claim trust with Industrial Bank of Korea (SME bank) — an asset-backed loan (ABL) for investment and working capital; KRW figures use Seoul FX mid ₩1,360.00/USD on 2026-09-23; debtor is a new SPC so summary financials are blank. rcpNo 20260923900502 / dcmNo 11591031 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (EcoPlastic / 에코플라스틱 matches). Live at enrich (Naver 038110 @~15:40 KST, cash just closed): ₩1,990 (+6 / +0.30% vs prev ₩1,984); open ₩1,987; high ₩2,030 (+2.32%); low ₩1,971; volume 170,079; shares 41,169,370; mcap ≈ ₩819억 (₩81.93bn); guarantee/mcap ≈ 63.5%; Naver BPS ≈ ₩9,352 → ~0.21× book.

What: After the cash close, EcoPlastic resolved to jointly guarantee ₩52.0bn (130% of a ₩40.0bn Hana loan) for subsidiary SPC Heungguk On Enterprise No.8 EcoPlastic LLC so the SPC can fund purchase of Class-1 beneficiary rights under EcoPlastic’s IBK monetary-claim trust — an ABL for investment and working capital running into Sep 2029 (14.5% of YE2025 consol equity / ~63% of the ~₩82bn mcap; total guarantee book ₩474bn). Why mixed: contingent parent guarantee is a credit/leverage stamp, but the structure finances EcoPlastic’s own receivables via an ABL SPC — ops funding shoe, not a third-party bailout. Why 1-3% (not 3-8%/8%+): Namkwang rule cuts contingent guarantees well below face/mcap; deep discount to book inflates the mcap ratio; existing ₩474bn guarantee book already prices leverage. Why p≈22%: 15:40 KST is after cash close — overnight/NXT leftover only; cash finished +0.3%/high +2.3%, so same-session alpha is gone and overnight is a modest credit grind.

Naver 038110 ₩1,990 (+0.30% / high ₩2,030 +2.32%); vol 170,079; shares 41,169,370; mcap ≈ ₩81.93bn; guarantee/equity 14.5%; guarantee/mcap ≈ 63.5%; BPS ≈ ₩9,352

DART

Cancel 0.997m already-held treasury (4.74% of shares / book ₩1.03bn); float shrink dated 30 Sep

2026-09-23 14:51 KST: Inter-M (인터엠, 017250, KOSDAQ) filed a stock-cancellation decision (주식소각결정). Common shares to cancel: 996,542; preferred: none. Issued common outstanding on the form: 21,045,467 → cancel ≈ 4.74% of shares. Par ₩500. Planned cancel amount (book value of already-held treasury at board date): ₩1,030,877,576 (=₩1.03bn / 10.31억). Acquisition method: already-held treasury (기취득 자기주식) — no new open-market buy window (start/end blank; broker blank). Cancel scheduled date: 2026-09-30 (may change with regulators). Board resolution: 2026-09-23 (outside directors 1 present). Notes: cancel under Commercial Act Art. 343(1) — issued share count falls but capital stock does not; target is treasury acquired 2026-02-25 through 2026-09-15 only (older treasury excluded); purpose is shareholder-value enhancement; this cancel filing also substitutes for a treasury-disposal disclosure. rcpNo 20260923900399 / dcmNo 11590793 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (Inter-M / 인터엠 matches). Live at enrich (Daum A017250 @~15:14 KST): ₩1,084 (+21 / +1.98% vs prev ₩1,063); open ₩1,045; high ₩1,090 (+2.54%); low ₩1,033; volume 40,767; turnover ≈₩0.43억; shares 21,045,467; mcap ≈ ₩228억 (₩22.81bn); cancel-shares/float ≈ 4.74%; book/mcap ≈ 4.5%.

What: Mid-session, Inter-M resolved to permanently cancel 996,542 already-held common treasury shares (4.74% of the 21.05m issued; book ₩1.03bn ≈ 4.5% of the ~₩22.8bn mcap) with no new buyback bid — float shrink dated 30 Sep, capital stock unchanged, covering only the Feb–Sep 2026 buy window. Why up: already-held treasury cancel is mechanical permanent float shrink (PlumbFast / KTis / Sammok class), not a soft price-support trust and not an ESOP return-to-float. Why 3-8% (not 1-3%/8%+): ~4.7% of shares on a ~₩23bn microcap clears a mid thin-name cancel band; refuse 8%+ because size is well below the PlumbFast/KTis ~10%+ float-shrink class. Why p≈30%: stamp 14:51 KST; enrich still shows live +2.0% / high +2.5% — unused clip inside 3-8%, haircut for mid-afternoon latency and a 30-Sep cancel date.

Daum A017250 ₩1,084 (+1.98% / high ₩1,090 +2.54%); vol 40,767; shares 21,045,467; mcap ≈ ₩22.81bn; cancel 4.74% of shares; book/mcap ≈ 4.5%

DART

₩17.75bn high-Ni NCM precursor PO to Umicore (~13% mcap / 12.5% sales; no advance; supply thru mid-Nov)

2026-09-23 14:36 KST: Eco&Dream (에코앤드림, 101360, KOSDAQ) filed a single sales/supply contract (단일판매ㆍ공급계약체결). Contract: high-nickel NCM precursor supply PO (하이니켈 NCM 전구체 공급 PO). Confirmed contract amount: ₩17,752,896,000 (=₩17.75bn / 177.53억) — USD 13,053,600 at Hana Bank first-posted rate ₩1,360.00/USD on 2026-09-23. Latest sales (2025 YE consolidated): ₩141,958,412,396 → sales ratio 12.51%. Conditional contract: no. Counterparty: Umicore SA (Energy Materials / Recycling / Catalysis); relationship blank "-"; same-type contracts with CP in last 3 years: yes. Region: customer-designated domestic and overseas plants. Period start 2026-09-23 (PO receipt date) → end 2027-01-03 (payment-receipt schedule); actual supply end stated as 2026-11-14. Down payment / advance: none. Payment: within 65 days of the last day of the shipping month. Production: in-house. Contract (award) date: 2026-09-23. Notes: amount uses prior-supply raw-material prices and may change with major input prices; period may change with customer talks. rcpNo 20260923900346 / dcmNo 11590734 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (Eco&Dream / 에코앤드림 matches). Live at enrich (Daum/Naver 101360 @~14:47 KST): ₩7,640 (+290 / +3.95% vs prev ₩7,350); open ₩7,410; high ₩8,000 (+8.84%); low ₩7,310; volume 56,113; turnover ≈₩4.2억; shares 17,786,114; mcap ≈ ₩1359억 (₩135.89bn); face/mcap ≈ 13.1%.

What: Mid-session, Eco&Dream booked a signed ₩17.75bn (USD 13.05m) high-nickel NCM precursor PO to Umicore SA — 12.51% of 2025 consolidated sales and ~13% of the ~₩136bn mcap — with in-house supply through mid-November 2026, no advance, and payment within 65 days of each shipping month-end. Why up: named global cathode/precursor CP, near-term delivery window, and double-digit face vs both sales and mcap on a KOSDAQ materials name — real orderbook print, not an affiliate pipeline restatement. Why 3-8% (not 1-3%/8%+): sales % is only the disclosure bar; band comes from ~13% of mcap + near-term cash timing (Toptec mid-cap supply). Cap below 8%+ because there is no down payment and the won amount can move with raw-material prices (Vinatech / no-advance haircut). Why p≈12%: enrich lands after high already +8.8% / live +3.9% — reaction window was the first minutes after the 14:36 stamp; leftover is don’t-chase inside a band the tape already tested.

Daum/Naver 101360 ₩7,640 (+3.95% / high ₩8,000 +8.84%); vol 56,113; shares 17,786,114; mcap ≈ ₩135.89bn; face/mcap ≈ 13.1%

DART

₩185.64bn SPC guarantee for 3×26K chemical-tanker newbuilds (71% of equity / ~43% mcap) — Jun-1 facility shoe

2026-09-23 12:15 KST: Heung-A Shipping (흥아해운, 003280, KOSPI) filed a decision on debt guarantee for others (타인에대한채무보증결정). Debtors: GMF HA 26K NO.1 S.A., GMF HA 26K NO.2 S.A., GMF HA 26K NO.3 S.A. (relationship field blank "-"; notes say SPCs set up to take buyer status for the vessels). Creditors: WUCHANG SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY GROUP CO., LTD. and CHINA SHIPBUILDING TRADING CO., LTD. Debt / guarantee amount: ₩185,640,000,000 (=₩185.64bn / 1,856.4억) — KRW conversion of USD 136,500,000 (USD 45,500,000 per vessel × 3) at Hana Bank first-posted mid rate ₩1360.00/USD on 2026-09-23. Equity on the form (2025 YE consolidated total equity): ₩259,908,884,187 (=₩259.91bn) → guarantee/equity 71.43%. Large-corporation filer: no. Guarantee period: 2026-09-23 start → 2029-06-30 end (last vessel delivery; may slip with build schedule). Total guarantee balance: ₩185,640,000,000. Board / contract date: 2026-09-23. Per-SPC balances: ₩61,880,000,000 each (NO.1 to 2028-12-31; NO.2 to 2029-03-31; NO.3 to 2029-06-30 — form labels one row NO.2 twice). Notes: guarantee covers the SPCs’ vessel purchase price and all obligations to the creditors after Heung-A transferred buyer status for the three 26K DWT stainless-steel chemical tankers disclosed as a new facility investment on 2026-06-01. rcpNo 20260923800224 / dcmNo 11590267 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (Heung-A Shipping / 흥아해운 matches). Live at enrich (Naver 003280): ₩1,790 (−11 / −0.61% vs prev ₩1,801); open ₩1,801; high ₩1,813 (+0.67%); low ₩1,786; volume 1,148,499; shares 240,424,899; mcap ≈ ₩4304억 (₩430.4bn); guarantee/mcap ≈ 43.1%.

What: Mid-session, Heung-A Shipping resolved to guarantee ₩185.64bn (USD 136.5m) of vessel-purchase debt for three SPCs buying 3× 26K DWT stainless chemical tankers from Wuchang / China Shipbuilding Trading — 71.43% of YE2025 consolidated equity (₩259.91bn) and ~43% of the ~₩430bn mcap — with the guarantee running into mid-2029. Why mixed: the contingent-liability stamp is large vs equity (credit/guarantee class is stronger than backlog), but this is the financing shoe of the already-disclosed 2026-06-01 new facility investment — buyer status moved to SPCs and the parent guarantees own-fleet newbuild obligations, not a surprise third-party bailout. Asset-backed ship finance vs consol leverage. Why 1-3% (not 3-8%/8%+): Namkwang-class contingent guarantee ≠ same-afternoon 8%+ cash hole; already-known second shoe of the Jun-1 tanker order cuts the band hard (admin/known-deal haircut). Face/equity looks huge; discovery of the ships is not new. Why p≈18%: stamp 12:15 KST into live cash; Naver still ~₩1,790 (−0.6% / high only +0.7%) so the 1–3% band is unused on tape, but leftover is only a credit-conscious grind on a known financing stamp — not discovery alpha.

Naver 003280 ₩1,790 (−0.61% / high ₩1,813 +0.67%); vol 1,148,499; shares 240,424,899; mcap ≈ ₩430.4bn; guarantee/equity 71.43%; guarantee/mcap ≈ 43.1%

DART

Cancel 3.40m already-held treasury (~9.8% of shares / book ₩9.93bn); float shrink dated 30 Oct

2026-09-23 10:22 KST: KTis (케이티아이에스, 058860, KOSPI) filed a stock-cancellation decision (주식소각결정). Common shares to cancel: 3,397,048; preferred: none. Issued common outstanding on the form: 34,802,000 → cancel ≈ 9.76% of shares. Par ₩500. Planned cancel amount (book value of already-held treasury at board date): ₩9,928,036,305 (=₩9.93bn / 99.28억). Acquisition method: already-held treasury (기취득 자기주식) — no new open-market buy window (start/end blank; broker blank). Cancel scheduled date: 2026-10-30 (may change with regulators). Board resolution: 2026-09-23 (outside directors 3 present / 0 absent). Notes: cancel under Commercial Act Art. 343(1) — issued share count falls but capital stock does not; amount is accounting book value of directly held treasury. rcpNo 20260923800133 / dcmNo 11589961 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (KTis matches). Live at enrich (Naver 058860): ₩2,865 (+415 / +16.94% vs prev ₩2,450); open ₩2,475; high ₩2,930 (+19.59%); low ₩2,455; volume 1,018,904; turnover ₩28.7억; shares 34,802,000; mcap ≈ ₩997억 (₩99.7bn); cancel-shares/float ≈ 9.8%; book/mcap ≈ 10.0%.

What: Mid-session, KTis resolved to permanently cancel 3,397,048 already-held common treasury shares (~9.8% of the 34.8m issued; book ₩9.93bn ≈ 10% of the ~₩100bn mcap) with no new buyback bid — float shrink dated 30 Oct, capital stock unchanged. Why up: already-held treasury cancel is mechanical permanent float shrink (PlumbFast / KIE / Sammok class), not a soft price-support trust and not an ESOP return-to-float. Why 8%+ (not 1-3%/3-8%): ~10% of shares cancelled on a ~₩100bn KOSPI name clears the Handsome mid-cap 3–8% ceiling and sits in PlumbFast-size cancel territory; thin-name ADV can gap the announcement harder than the first day’s math. Why p≈12%: stamp 10:22 KST into live cash; by enrich Naver already ₩2,865 (+16.9%) / high ₩2,930 (+19.6%) on ~1.0m shares — the 8%+ band already printed (and more). Leftover is don’t-chase / fade-or-hold autopsy, not unused alpha (BQ / PlumbFast post-spike class).

Naver 058860 ₩2,865 (+16.94% / high ₩2,930 +19.59%); vol 1,018,904; shares 34,802,000; mcap ≈ ₩99.7bn; cancel 9.8% of shares; book/mcap ≈ 10.0%

DART

₩90.0bn Seongsu Phase-2 office EPC via sub HL D&I Halla (~26% of Holdings mcap; HL REIT CP; no advance; 35mo) — parent echo

2026-09-23 09:36 KST: HL Holdings (HL홀딩스, 060980, KOSPI) filed a single sales/supply contract as a subsidiary major-management matter (자회사의 주요경영사항). Subsidiary named on the form: HL D&I Halla Co., Ltd. (에이치엘디앤아이한라(주)). Contract name: Seongsu-dong 2-ga Office Development Project Phase 2 new construction (성수동2가 오피스 개발사업 2단계 신축공사). Contract amount (VAT excluded): ₩89,965,000,000 (=₩90.0bn / 899.65억). Latest sales on the form (2025 YE consolidated of the subsidiary): ₩1,741,923,655,122 → sales ratio 5.16% (not a large-corporation filer; ratio is vs the sub’s sales, not Holdings). Counterparty: HL No.7 Seongsu Project Trust-Managed REIT (주식회사에이치엘제7호성수프로젝트위탁관리부동산투자회사); relationship field blank ("-"), but CP name is HL-branded group REIT. Site: Seoul Seongdong-gu Seongsu-dong 2-ga 236-5 — underground 6 / above-ground 14 floors office plus neighborhood retail. Down payment / advance: none. Payment: progress billing (기성불). Contract (award) date: 2026-09-22. Duration: 35 months from construction start (start/end blank); amount/period may change with permits and progress. Same economics as HL D&I (014790) rcpNo 20260923800065 stamped 09:27 KST. rcpNo 20260923800083 / dcmNo 11589741 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (HL Holdings matches). Live at enrich (Naver 060980): ₩38,850 (-100 / -0.26% vs prev ₩38,950); open ₩39,500; high ₩39,800 (+2.18%); low ₩38,800; volume 1,411; turnover ₩55.3m; shares 8,956,347; mcap ≈ ₩3480억 (₩0.348tn); face/mcap ≈ 25.9%.

What: Mid-session, HL Holdings restated its construction sub HL D&I Halla’s signed ₩90.0bn Seongsu Phase-2 office EPC (5.16% of the sub’s 2025 sales; ~26% of Holdings’ ~₩348bn mcap) with zero advance and ~35 months of progress-bill cash against an HL No.7 Seongsu REIT counterparty — the same deal HL D&I filed nine minutes earlier. Why mixed: parent ownership gives economic exposure to the backlog, but this is an affiliate-pipeline / related-party restatement (HL-branded REIT CP) with no near-term cash, and the market already saw the identical stamp on 014790 at 09:27 (Doosan Fuel Cell / HyAxiom affiliate haircut + Seohan / HS Hwaseong no-advance construction skepticism). Why 1-3% (not 3-8%/8%+): refuse the face/mcap trap (~26% of Holdings); sales % on the form is the sub’s disclosure bar, not Holdings revenue; cash dribbles over ~3 years with no down payment. Why p≈14%: info was already public via the sub filing; Holdings live −0.26% / high only +2.2% — leftover for a Holdings-specific 1–3% close grind is thin.

Naver 060980 ₩38,850 (-0.26% / high ₩39,800 +2.18%); vol 1,411; shares 8,956,347; mcap ≈ ₩3480억; face/mcap ≈ 25.9%

DART

₩90.0bn Seongsu Phase-2 office EPC (5.16% of sales / ~96% of mcap; HL No.7 REIT CP; no advance; 35 months)

2026-09-23 09:27 KST: HL D&I (014790, KOSPI) filed a single sales/supply construction-award contract. Contract name: Seongsu-dong 2-ga Office Development Project Phase 2 new construction (성수동2가 오피스 개발사업 2단계 신축공사). Contract amount (VAT excluded): ₩89,965,000,000 (=₩90.0bn / 899.65억). Latest sales (2025 YE consolidated): ₩1,741,923,655,122 → sales ratio 5.16% (not a large-corporation filer). Counterparty: HL No.7 Seongsu Project Trust-Managed REIT (주식회사에이치엘제7호성수프로젝트위탁관리부동산투자회사); form relationship field blank ("-"), but CP name is HL-branded group REIT. Site: Seoul Seongdong-gu Seongsu-dong 2-ga 236-5 — underground 6 / above-ground 14 floors office plus neighborhood retail. Down payment / advance: none. Payment: progress billing (기성불). Contract (award) date: 2026-09-22. Duration: 35 months from construction start (start/end dates blank); amount/period may change with permits and progress. rcpNo 20260923800065 / dcmNo 11589690 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (company name matches). Live at enrich (Naver 014790): ₩2,470 (+20 / +0.82% vs prev ₩2,450); open ₩2,490; high ₩2,650 (+8.16%); low ₩2,440; volume 25,303; turnover ₩63.5m; shares 37,858,601; mcap ≈ ₩93.5bn; face/mcap ≈ 96.2%.

What: Mid-session, HL D&I booked a signed ₩90.0bn Seongsu Phase-2 office EPC (5.16% of 2025 sales / ~96% of the ~₩93.5bn mcap) with zero advance and ~35 months of progress-bill cash, against an HL No.7 Seongsu REIT counterparty. Why mixed: backlog optics are real on face, but the buyer is an HL-branded group REIT (affiliate-pipeline class even with a blank relationship field) and there is no near-term cash — Doosan Fuel Cell / HyAxiom affiliate haircut plus Seohan / HS Hwaseong / Inticube no-advance construction skepticism. Why 1-3% (not 3-8%/8%+): refuse the face/mcap trap (~96% of mcap); sales % is only a disclosure bar; cash dribbles over ~3 years with no down payment on a thin ~₩93bn KOSPI builder. Why p≈18%: stamp 09:27 KST into live cash; Naver already showed high ₩2,650 (+8.16%) with live only +0.82%, so the headline clip printed and faded before enrich — leftover is don’t-chase / fade-or-hold inside 1–3%, not unused band (BQ / thin-name spike-and-fade class).

Naver 014790 ₩2,470 (+0.82% / high ₩2,650 +8.16%); vol 25,303; shares 37,858,601; mcap ≈ ₩93.5bn; face/mcap ≈ 96.2%

DART

₩882.8bn Gamcheon Zone-2 housing redevelopment win (2.84% of sales / ~6.0% of mcap; no advance; 49 months)

2026-09-23 08:26 KST: Hyundai Engineering & Construction (현대건설, 000720, KOSPI) filed a single sales/supply construction-award contract. Contract name: Gamcheon Zone 2 housing redevelopment project (감천2구역 주택재개발정비사업). Counterparty: Gamcheon Zone 2 Housing Redevelopment Association (감천2구역 주택재개발정비사업조합); no affiliate flag. Location: Busan Saha-gu Gamcheon-dong 94-1 area — underground 7 / above-ground 33 floors, 21 buildings plus ancillary facilities. Contract amount (HDEC 100%, VAT excluded): ₩882,824,000,000 (=₩882.8bn / 8,828.24억). Latest sales (2025 YE consolidated): ₩31,062,912,168,499 → sales ratio 2.84% (large-corporation filer). Down payment / advance: none. Payment: billed and paid as construction progresses. Contract (award) date: 2026-09-22. Duration: 49 months after actual start (demolition period excluded); amount/period may change under the construction contract. rcpNo 20260923800033 / dcmNo 11589515 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (company name matches). Live at enrich (Yahoo 000720.KS pre-open ref): ₩131,300; shares outstanding 111,355,765; mcap ≈ ₩14.62tn; face/mcap ≈ 6.0%.

What: Pre-open, Hyundai E&C booked a signed ₩882.8bn Busan Gamcheon Zone-2 housing redevelopment EPC win (100% HDEC share) with zero advance and ~49 months of progress-bill cash after start. Why up: this is a signed construction award that adds housing backlog against a non-affiliate redevelopment association — real work, not a preferred-bidder tease or related-party restatement. Why 1-3% (not 3-8%/8%+): face is only 2.84% of ₩31.1tn sales and ~6% of the ~₩14.6tn mcap; with no advance and multi-year progress billing on a liquid mega-cap builder, near-term cash does not match the headline (Samsung E&A / HS Hwaseong progress-bill class — refuse the face trap). Why p≈40%: stamp is 08:26 KST (~34 min into the 09:00 auction), so leftover is the pre-open window; liquid KOSPI construction often pays only a ~1% headline tax then fades, so this is not a high-confidence hold-to-close 1–3%.

Yahoo 000720.KS ₩131,300 (pre-open ref); mcap ~₩14.62tn; face/mcap ~6.0%; ~34 min to 09:00 auction

DART

₩14.0bn Series-7 private CB refinance (cv ₩1,855 / 30.1% shares; refix to ₩1,299) offsets full Series-5 CB cancel; after-close

2026-09-22 15:51 KST: Xplus Inc. (엑스플러스, 373200, KOSDAQ) filed a paired major-matter set. (A) rcpNo 20260922000356 / dcmNo 11588817 — Series 7 nameless interest-bearing unguaranteed private convertible bond issue. Face: ₩14,000,000,000 (=₩14.0bn / 140억). Purpose: debt repayment ₩14.0bn (no facility/working-capital line). Coupon 2.0% surface / 7.0% maturity; maturity 2029-09-30; private; pay-in 2026-09-30 (method: other/offset). Conversion: 100% @ ₩1,855/sh → 7,547,169 common = 30.14% of shares outstanding (25,043,237). Conversion window 2027-09-30 to 2029-08-30. Refix every 5 months down to 70% floor ₩1,299. Put from 2027-09-30 quarterly (compound 7%); issuer call with YTC 8% sleeve. Allottees: Sangsangin Savings Bank ₩7.0bn + Sangsangin Plus Savings Bank ₩7.0bn (same lenders as Series 5). (B) companion rcpNo 20260922000342 / dcmNo 11588821 — early acquisition of entire Series 5 private CB (issued 2025-04-10, maturity 2028-04-10, face ₩14.0bn) for ₩14.0bn principal, settled by offset against Series-7 pay-in on 2026-09-30, then KSD cancel. Series 5 conversion was ₩3,390 / 4,129,793 sh = 16.49% of shares. Both rcpNos confirmed on DART HTML viewer (company name matches). Live at enrich (Yahoo 373200.KQ session close): ₩1,696 (prev close ₩1,750, −3.09%); recent daily vol ~19k–44k shares; shares 25,043,237; mcap ₩424.7억 (~₩42.5bn); face/mcap ≈ 33.0%; new cv is ~9.4% OTM vs ₩1,696 (old cv ~100% OTM).

What: After the cash close, Xplus rolled its entire ₩14.0bn Series-5 CB into a new ₩14.0bn Series-7 private CB with the same Sangsangin lenders via a cashless offset on 30 Sep — retiring the old 16.5%-of-shares overhang at ₩3,390 and replacing it with a 30.1%-of-shares overhang at ₩1,855 (refixable to ₩1,299). Why mixed: maturity is extended and no cash leaves the company today, but equity dilution capacity nearly doubles and the strike moves from deep-OTM to near-spot with a 70% refix ratchet — classic refinance-into-worse-terms, not a clean de-lever. Why 8%+: face is ~33% of the ₩42.5bn mcap and potential share count is 30% on a micro-ADV KOSDAQ name; after-close stamps of this size can gap hard at the Wed auction even though conversion is locked until Sep 2027. Why p≈40%: leftover is the overnight/Wed open product (15:51 KST is after the 15:30 cash close); thin ADV can print an 8%+ whip then fade, so this is not a high-confidence hold-to-close band.

Yahoo 373200.KQ ₩1,696 (prev ₩1,750, −3.09%); mcap ~₩42.5bn; after cash close

DART

KOSPI +0.15% to 7,017.91 after early +2% fade; Samsung +0.91%, SK hynix −1.5%

Tue 22 Sep: KOSPI closed 7,017.91 (+10.19 / +0.15%) after intrad high 7,171.44. Samsung Electronics +0.91% to ₩276,500; SK hynix −1.5% to ₩1.84m. Individuals −₩1.6tn / institutions −₩121.8bn / foreigners +₩76.2bn. Won 1,358.2/USD at 15:30 (+7.2 from prior close). Meta Muse #1 App Store cited for AI-agent CPU/server sentiment.

Wed PREOPEN base after Tue fade — Hynix underperformed Samsung; do not invent Wed gap from Yahoo prev-close.

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KOSPI gives back early 2% surge, holds just above 7,017; won to 1,358.2

Tue 22 Sep BK close tape: KOSPI opened 7,161.61 (+2.20%), high 7,171.44, closed 7,017.91 (+0.15%). KOSDAQ 834.38 (−0.23%). Won/USD closed 1,358.2. Foreign/institution selling restricted upside after early AI/tech bounce.

Confirms Yonhap fade tape into Wed open — supply/demand heavy at highs; Chuseok-adjacent caution.

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Alibaba Apsara: teases 5–10T-param Qwen roadmap + Zhenwu V900 ‘China’s most powerful’ AI chip

Tue 22 Sep Apsara (Hangzhou): Alibaba teased Qwen models scaling toward 5–10 trillion parameters; unveiled T-Head Zhenwu V900 (claimed 3× prior M890; mass production targeted Q1 2027). Cloud DC capacity aim >20 GW by 2032.

Hard China AI/full-stack color for BABA/9988 + domestic ASIC narrative; competitive overlay vs NVDA China, soft for HK AI complex.

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AI investment drives soaring eSSD demand; Q4 orders may top strong Q3 — Samsung/SK hynix expand lineups

Tue 22 Sep BK: TrendForce — CSP eSSD demand forecasts revised up; Q4 order volumes may exceed elevated Q3. JPMorgan cited: eSSD could be 48% of NAND bit demand by 2027. Samsung shipping PCIe 6.0 PM1763 for Nvidia Vera Rubin; SK hynix pushing PEB210 / PS1110 / 122TB QLC PS1101.

Hard constructive NAND/eSSD ASP + mix for 000660/005930 Solidigm sleeve — joins prior NAND ASP raise tape.

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HK AI Tue: Z.AI 742 (−6.6% vs Mon 794); MiniMax 286.4 (−3.9% vs Mon 298); HSI ~25,088

Tue 22 Sep Yahoo: 2513.HK Z.AI closed 742 (Mon 794); 0100.HK MiniMax 286.4 (Mon 298). HSI Yahoo live ~25,087.75 (Mon close 25,042.71; Tue bar close not finalized in chart pull).

HK AI cools after Mon strength into Apsara week — mixed China AI beta vs Alibaba product drop.

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Ant Group consolidates Alipay ops in big bet on AI ‘agentic commerce’

Tue 22 Sep SCMP: Ant Group consolidating Alipay operations as a push into AI agentic commerce (same-day Apsara complex).

Soft constructive China agent/payments AI narrative — joins Muse/agent demand tape; not a KR memory print.

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Day’s best PAPER arb

PAPER: Seoul rule NO (Tue cash −1.50%, need ≤−8%; ADR prem ~44.2% rich alone does not clear). BN↔HL mark spread N/A (Binance geo-blocked). Watch HL SKHX fund ~+0.6 bp vs SKHY -0.23 bp — research only. Secondary: ADR ~+44.2% still rich to parity after Tue KR fade + US SKHY rip = multi-day premium research. eSSD/NAND constructive vs Samsung HBM-share + 16Hi delay = mixed Hynix beta. CSOPSKHYNIX2L is 2× HK ETF — not the stock. Paper only. No live.

Charts refreshed 23 Sep 2026 08:06 HKT / 23 Sep 2026 09:06 KST (rolling 7d BN↔HL). SKHYNIX↔SKHX mark ~+21.5 bp · SKHY↔SKHY mark ~+14.7 bp · ADR/KRX prem ~+38.88% Research/paper only.

Charts on disk are prior rolling 7d (not re-pulled this fire). Live HL marks 2026-09-23 07:52 HKT / 2026-09-23 08:52 KST. Research/paper only.

BN fapi GEO-BLOCKED from this box (Binance Eligibility / restricted location) — cannot refresh BN premiumIndex / fundingRate. HL xyz dex OK.

xyz:SKHX mark ~1,409.6 / fund ~+0.6 bp / prevDay 1390.8 · xyz:SKHY mark ~196.11 / fund -0.23 bp / prevDay 190.71. BN↔HL spread N/A. ADR/KRX prem Tue ~+44.2%.

Bottom strip is ADR vs KRX cash premium (SKHY×10×USDKRW/000660−1), not the old backtest equity curve. Paper.

Seoul paper rule NO (Tue cash −1.50%, not ≤−8%). Excluded CSOPSKHYNIX2LUSDT. Paper only.

Ticker	Follow	Note
AVGO	Y	Live. Standing Y. Afternoon tape: FT via Jukan — China surveying Broadcom switch dependence in DCs (soft China-sleeve caution; not a cut).
NIO	Y caution	China concentration. Unchanged.
EOS	Y avoid	Separate from EOSE.
NVDA	Y	Still live. Tue RTH $228.87 (Mon $227.38). Glass/CoPoS PRIOR + Muse hardware = already_in_Y overlay. Not a new add.
MRVL	Y	Follow-up Y. Unchanged.
MU	Y	Cheapest PEG (22 Aug AJ). Overnight AJ: +23% since Jul $885 call — confirmation, not a new memo. NAND/eSSD tape supportive.
XPEV	Y	AJ $12.20 / IRON. Overnight: “cheapest humanoids play” — reinforces standing Y.
META	booked	Tactical. Muse/WhatsApp hardware scarcity = color only.
AMD	Y	Y confirmation: AJ buy flag $453 (2 Sep). $1tn print = momentum color, not a new memo.
LITE	Y	Standing NEW Y (17 Sep). Optical/AI networking. Paper until memo body checked.
ORCL	Y	Wait sleeve (AJ). Still wait, don’t chase.
PLTR / AAPL	N / event	PLTR expensive. AAPL event sleeve — not an AJ AAPL long.
EOSE	avoid	AJ red flags
TSLA	caution	AJ Permanent Bubble / 176x True PE. Caution↑↑ — not a long.
SPCX	watch	Watch, not a Y.
RIVN	N	Skip.
DELL	watch title	AJ Sat email lists Dell initiation title — body paywalled; not a Y.
INTC	color	HBM5 base-die late-2028 PRIOR (Zephyr) — still not an AJ Y.

2026-09-23 07:52 HKT / 2026-09-23 08:52 KST. US cash Tue done. AJ overnight: XPEV humanoids + MU confirmation — no brand-new Y ticker. Do not invent targets. Paper.

KRX PREOPEN. Attractive list EMPTY besides Hynix desk. Tue close: KOSPI 7,017.91 (+0.15%) after early +2% fade; 000660 ₩1,840,000 (−1.50%); 005930 ₩276,500 (+0.91%). Won 1,358.2 at Tue 15:30. SKHY ADR Tue $195.37; prem ~+44.2%. No overnight 000660 DART keep. data.krx missing. Tue flows: Hynix For −217,556 / Inst −159,679 / Ind −217,329; own 50.15%.

DART age-window: EcoPlastic 038110 mixed 1-3%/p≈22% (₩52.0bn SPC ABL @15:40 after-close); Inter-M 017250 up 3-8%/p≈30% (already-held cancel ~4.74% @14:51); Eco&Dream 101360 up 3-8%/p≈12% (₩17.75bn Umicore precursor PO @14:36 — high +8.8% don’t-chase); Heung-A Shipping 003280 mixed 1-3%/p≈18% (₩185.64bn SPC tanker guarantee @12:15 — Jun-1 shoe); KTis 058860 up 8%+/p≈12% (already-held cancel ~9.8% @10:22 — live +17%/high +20% don’t-chase); HL D&I 014790 mixed 1-3%/p≈18% (₩90.0bn Seongsu Phase-2 @09:27 — affiliate REIT/no advance; high +8% already); Hyundai E&C 000720 up 1-3%/p≈40% (₩882.8bn Gamcheon Zone-2 @08:26); Xplus 373200 mixed 8%+/p≈40% (₩14.0bn Series-7 CB refinance @15:51 Tue).

No new Korea attractive idea beyond Hynix desk + pre-open Hyundai E&C. Tue fade from 7,170 elevated — watch Wed auction. No live trade recs. Paper.

Jukan/FT: China reviews dependence on Broadcom switches in data centres

FT (Zijing Wu / Eleanor Olcott): China surveying Broadcom switch dependence in data centres amid drive to boost domestic players and cut foreign AI-infra reliance. Jukan frames as full-stack hardware independence including switches.

Soft caution on AVGO China switch/AI-networking sleeve (standing AJ Y stays; not a cut). Soft constructive China domestic Ethernet/switch names longer-dated. Survey/review, not an announced ban — selective, not clean AVGO dump.

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Jukan: JPM HBM model — 16Hi HBM adoption 2029 at the earliest

Morning note: JPMorgan updated HBM model; expects 16-high HBM stacking adoption no earlier than 2029.

Soft caution on near-dated ultra-high stack density narrative — timeline pushout vs hype; does not erase HBM4/ASP tightness already on book.

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Citrini: Agentic Reality — ramifications of widespread agentic adoption (long note)

Publishes ‘Agentic Reality’ revisit of 2023 ‘Less Deus, More Machina’ losers framework now that agents move from novelty to reality. Companion: 25 AI-disruptor short basket −38% vs SPY +75% over 3y.

Hard constructive agent-adoption / hardware-demand narrative (joins Muse/DRAM tape); soft caution for named disruptor shorts already worked. No single new AJ Y.

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AJ: Xpeng — cheapest way to play humanoids in the stock market

AJ flags XPEV as cheapest listed humanoid/robotics equity proxy (quotes XPENG_Global).

Reinforces standing XPEV Y — not a brand-new memo; humanoid overlay on existing book.

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AJ: Micron +23% in two months since Jul $885 call — ‘Bullseye’

Score-settling on prior MU call (Jul post); flags +23% move. Separate HC promo spam dropped.

Soft constructive MU standing Y confirmation — not a new add; NAND/DRAM tape still supportive.

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Jukan: Nvidia pushes KR/JP/TW substrate makers for glass within ~2y (before 2028)

KiPost: Nvidia asking substrate makers in Korea/Japan/Taiwan to finish glass development within two years. Zephyr labels path CoPoS.

Soft constructive advanced packaging/substrate — longer-dated NVDA packaging roadmap.

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Zephyr: HBM5 base die → Intel late 2028; TSMC keeps HBM4/HBM4E

Switch to Intel for HBM5 late 2028; TSMC handles HBM4/HBM4E base die.

Hard constructive INTC foundry/base-die sleeve; soft constructive TSMC near-term HBM4/4E base. Still not an AJ Y.

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Jukan: Samsung weighing 4nm expand + new 2nm line for HBM4/HBM5 base dies; prices up

Samsung considering 4nm expand + new 2nm for HBM4 base-die demand; raised prices on new 4nm/HBM4 base; Q3 HBM4 revenue expected >3× QoQ.

Hard constructive Samsung foundry + HBM4 mix/ASP — competitive share pressure vs SKHY HBM leadership.

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Jukan: China smuggling South Korean-made HBM through Malaysia (not EMIB)

Attributes China HBM access to smuggling KR-made HBM via Malaysia vs SemiAnalysis EMIB framing.

Soft bearish leakage/competition overlay for 000660/SKHY HBM scarcity premium.

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Jukan/DigiTimes: CXMT↔YMTC turning hostile — YMTC into LPDDR5, CXMT into NAND

Prior DRAM/NAND split breaking; head-to-head expected ~2028.

Competitive China memory pressure — soft mixed/bearish long-run share overlay for SKHY.

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Zephyr: Meta skipped Muse on WhatsApp — not enough CPU/GPU/DRAM/SSD for 2B users

Hardware scarcity as binding constraint on personal-agent rollout at Meta scale.

Hard constructive DRAM/NAND + CPU demand under agent adoption.

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Method: afternoon fxtwitter scrape (api.fxtwitter.com/2/profile/{handle}/statuses); Home unavailable. Cutoff after morning 2026-09-23 07:52 HKT. JSON: x-feed.json.

Overall: mixed — one NEW afternoon priority keep; no label shift. China switch localization adds soft AVGO caution on standing Y. No clean broad risk-on/off.

AJ US watchlist: Y: LITE (standing); standing Y unchanged (AVGO/MU/MRVL/NVDA/XPEV/META/AMD); AVGO China-switch survey = soft caution color only; XPEV/MU morning confirmation still PRIOR; ORCL wait; TSLA caution↑↑; SPCX watch; EOSE avoid; NIO caution; EOS avoid; DELL watch title; INTC color only. No brand-new AJ Y this pass.