Markets desk

Morning report — Fri 25 Sep 2026 ~07:52 HKT (research/paper)

Research/paper only. No live orders or recommendations. KRX Chuseok HOLIDAY day 2 (Thu 24–Fri 25); cash resumes Mon 28 Sep 09:00 KST.

watchlists US AJ: NEW overnight board rows none. Outlook CONNECTED (kruusamae@live.com); no new AJ research memo overnight. X color only: Jensen underrated (NVDA confirmation); Tesla Q3 US −31% Cox with tax-credit pullforward caveat (caution sleeve). Standing Y: AVGO, MU, MRVL, NVDA (HC), XPEV, META, AMD, LITE. Wait ORCL; Caution TSLA, NIO; Watch SPCX; Avoid EOSE, EOS; N PLTR, AAPL, RIVN. Korea attractive: EMPTY. 000660 is Hynix desk only.

asia news Thu+Fri age-cut n=7 (Wed dropped). Lead: Yonhap — Trump/Xi AI guardrails split (Xi “human control” vs Trump “hoax”); Xi–Trump new trade arrangement / Bessent truce to Jan 10; Korea–Mexico Joint Action Plan includes AI; Lee chip-double pledge retained (Thu 00:22 update). SCMP: Xi–Trump AI-cooperation takeaways; Tencent TenPayGo; DBS selective China tech. HKET 403; named China AI labs (Zhipu/MiniMax/DeepSeek/Moonshot) thin in RSS.

X Sentiment mixed, medium · Home unavailable · morning n_new=3 since eve 22:08 HKT. NEW: Citrini AI-disruption buy-vs-own; AJ Jensen underrated; AJ Tesla Q3 Cox −31% w/ pullforward caveat. Eve PRIOR retained: Jukan DeepSeek ARR ~$1bn + Muse Meta-distro; Citrini NET/FSLY/META; Samsung D0a→B1b. Dropped BowTied lifestyle + xAI culture-war.

DART Age-window ≥Wed 15:40 KST: 4 keeps retained (no 000660) — Chuseok holiday KEEP (first cash Mon 28). Daeyang Metal 009190 down 3-8%/p≈30%; Aprogen Biologics 003060 mixed 1-3%/p≈24%; K3I 431190 mixed 8%+/p≈28%; EcoPlastic 038110 mixed 1-3%/p≈22%. RSS empty all night/morning; last_seen 20260923000601 @16:46 Wed.

funding BN fapi GEO-BLOCKED this morning (restricted-location). HL xyz OK: xyz:SKHY mark 186.13 / fund +6.25e-06; xyz:SKHX mark 1325.2 / fund +6.25e-06. BN−HL spreads UNKNOWN (no BN marks). Paper only.

Hynix KR HOLIDAY — Wed last cash 000660 ₩1,863,000 (+1.25%) O/H/L 1,899k/1,900k/1,836k · vol 2,886,116 (Naver/Daum). Samsung Wed ₩286,500 (+3.62%). KOSPI Wed 7,080.92 (+0.90%). SKHY Thu RTH $186.37 (−1.54%); cross-session prem vs Wed KRX/FX 1,358.4 ≈ +35.89% (Wed same-session was +38.01%). HL xyz:SKHY 186.13 / xyz:SKHX 1325.2. Paper Seoul rule vs Wed: NO (Leg A +1.25% fail; Leg B <40%). No NEW 000660 DART. Do not treat Yahoo as a Mon/holiday gap.

HYROX Warsaw registration announced (not open): opens 14 Oct 2026 12:00 CET / 18:00 HKT; race 7–11 Apr 2027. Official “Ticket sales start soon!”. Outlook: no newer Warsaw OPEN mail. Already pinged date; ping_needed=false.

Trump, Xi show apparent differences over AI guardrails at White House meeting

Thu 24 Sep White House summit (Yonhap Fri 05:13 KST): Xi stressed AI should remain “under human control”; Trump opposed additional AI guardrails, casting AI-safety fears as a “hoax.” Summit also covered trade/security.

Why it matters: Hard AI-policy color — US/China framing gap on safety vs pace. Soft for China AI names (Zhipu/MiniMax/DeepSeek/Moonshot) and NVDA-China tape: regulatory uncertainty, not a ticker print.

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Xi says U.S., China reach new trade arrangement; Bessent: truce extended to Jan 10

Thu 24 Sep summit (Yonhap Fri 4th LD): Xi said US–China reached a new trade arrangement (Xinhua). U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent told Fox the trade truce extends two months to Jan 10. Details of the “arrangement” not elaborated in the Yonhap lead.

Why it matters: Soft constructive risk-on macro / Asia beta into Fri; reduces near-term tariff cliff risk. Not a chip-earnings catalyst.

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S. Korea, Mexico adopt joint action plan — defense, crude oil, AI (2026–2030)

Thu 24 Sep Mexico City: Presidents Lee and Sheinbaum signed Korea–Mexico Joint Action Plan 2026–2030 expanding cooperation into crude oil, critical natural resources, defense, and artificial intelligence (Yonhap Fri updates).

Why it matters: Soft constructive Korea AI/defense diplomacy color; secondary to Hynix desk. Not a same-session KRX print (holiday).

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Lee pledges to double chip production in 5 years, build shock-resistant AI supply chains

Wed 23 Sep NY Korea Investment Summit (Yonhap LEAD updated Thu 00:22 KST — inside Fri age-cut window): President Lee said Korea will double semiconductor production capacity within five years and build AI supply chains “not shaken by any shocks,” pitching U.S. investment into chip cluster + AI facilities and a “Future Fund.”

Why it matters: Hard constructive policy/capex color for 000660/005930 into Mon cash reopen — retained from Thu update; not a same-day earnings print.

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B-2 Spirit, AI cooperation, no US-China conflict: key Xi-Trump takeaways so far

Thu 24 Sep SCMP (16:44 UTC / ~00:44 Fri HKT): Xi–Trump White House remarks highlighted AI cooperation framing alongside security optics; piece summarizes early summit takeaways including stated desire to avoid US–China conflict.

Why it matters: Soft constructive China/US AI-cooperation headline tape; pairs with Yonhap guardrails split — mixed policy signal, not a name-specific China AI earnings print. Zhipu/MiniMax/DeepSeek/Moonshot RSS still thin overnight.

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Tencent rolls out TenPayGo payment app for foreign travellers ahead of Apec summit

Thu 24 Sep: Tencent launched TenPayGo, a mobile payment app targeting foreign visitors, seeking inbound tourism spend ahead of APEC.

Why it matters: Soft constructive Tencent consumer/fintech sleeve (China AI complex adjacency) — not a model/compute catalyst.

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Investors pivot to selective China bets as technology displaces property — DBS

Thu 24 Sep SCMP: DBS says investor view of China as a “single bet” is giving way to picking individual winners, with technology displacing property as the growth engine.

Why it matters: Soft constructive selective China tech beta / HSI AI sleeve — allocation narrative, not a ticker catalyst. Named China AI labs still thin in Thu+Fri RSS.

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Best paper arb idea (holiday): no Seoul cash until Mon 28 — watch HL xyz:SKHY ↔ SKHY ADR tight (~−13 bp this morning) and ADR prem fade (+38%→+36%) into Mon open auction vs Wed leftover DART names. Research/paper only — no live recs. Field: /workspace/desk-site/_pack/20260925-am/.

Charts refreshed 25 Sep 2026 08:09 HKT / 25 Sep 2026 09:09 KST (rolling 7d BN↔HL). SKHYNIX↔SKHX mark ~+5.7 bp · SKHY↔SKHY mark ~+3.2 bp · ADR/KRX prem ~+38.50% Research/paper only.

Live marks refreshed 25 Sep 2026 07:52 HKT / 25 Sep 2026 08:52 KST. BN fapi GEO-BLOCKED (restricted-location eligibility) — BN−HL mark bp UNKNOWN this morning. ADR/KRX cross-session prem ~+35.89%. Research/paper only.

HL xyz dex OK: xyz:SKHY mark 186.13 / mid 186.075 / oracle 186.17 / fund +6.25e-06 / OI ~944k / dayNtlVlm ~$43.3M. xyz:SKHX mark 1325.2 / mid 1325.05 / oracle 1325.5 / fund +6.25e-06 / OI ~238k / dayNtlVlm ~$105.7M. Est. HL carry ~0.68% ann (8h×3×365) if funding stays flat — caveat: rate and OI move; paper only.

BN: fapi premiumIndex SKHYUSDT/SKHYNIXUSDT returned restricted-location error. data-api.binance.vision also blocked. No BN marks/funding/next-funding this fire.

Paper only. No fills. No live bots. Caveat: without BN, spread/arb watch is HL↔ADR only.

Ticker	Follow	Note
AVGO	Y	Live. Standing Y. Unchanged.
NIO	Y caution	China concentration. Unchanged.
EOS	Y avoid	Separate from EOSE. AJ overnight valuation jab — still avoid.
NVDA	Y	Still live / HC. Overnight AJ: “Jensen still underrated” — confirmation color, not a new add.
MRVL	Y	Follow-up Y. Unchanged.
MU	Y	Cheapest PEG (22 Aug AJ). Unchanged.
XPEV	Y	AJ $12.20 / IRON / humanoids. Unchanged.
META	booked	Tactical. Muse Meta-distro PRIOR + capacity strain = color only.
AMD	Y	Standing Y. Unchanged.
LITE	Y	Standing NEW Y (17 Sep). Paper until memo body checked.
ORCL	Y	Wait sleeve (AJ). Still wait.
PLTR / AAPL	N / event	PLTR expensive. AAPL event sleeve.
EOSE	avoid	AJ red flags
TSLA	caution	AJ Permanent Bubble. Overnight Cox −31% Q3 US w/ pullforward caveat — still caution↑↑, not a long.
SPCX	watch	Watch, not a Y.
RIVN	N	Skip.
DELL	watch title	Not a Y.
INTC	color	Still not an AJ Y.

2026-09-25 07:52 HKT / 2026-09-25 08:52 KST. Thu US cash done. No brand-new Y ticker overnight. Do not invent targets. Paper.

HOLIDAY (Chuseok) day 2 — Fri 25 Sep 2026. Cash CLOSED. Resumes Mon 28 Sep 09:00 KST. Attractive list EMPTY besides Hynix desk. Wed last cash: KOSPI 7,080.92 (+0.90%); 000660 ₩1,863,000 (+1.25%); 005930 ₩286,500 (+3.62%) (Naver/Daum). Won 1,358.4 at Wed 15:30 (Yonhap). SKHY Thu RTH $186.37; cross-session prem ≈ +35.89%. No overnight 000660 DART keep. data.krx missing.

DART age-window (≥Wed 15:40 KST) gap leftover into Mon 28 open (holiday KEEP — do not prune for Thu): Daeyang Metal 009190 down 3-8%/p≈30%; Aprogen Biologics 003060 mixed 1-3%/p≈24%; K3I 431190 mixed 8%+/p≈28%; EcoPlastic 038110 mixed 1-3%/p≈22%.

Citrini: AI-disrupted names — stock worth buying vs worth owning; multiple compression first

Existential tech threat → gradual cycle: selloff overextends vs near-term fundamentals, dip-buy rebound, then long underperformance (Macy’s 2015–19). Disruption shows first as multiple compression while earnings still look fine.

Implication: Framework caution on AI-disrupted longs (buy≠own). Soft constructive clear AI winners; soft risk-off legacy disrupted sleeves. Not a new AJ Y.

x.com/citrini/status/2103256952574767166

AJ: Jensen still underrated — top entrepreneur by outcomes

AJ: Jensen Huang still underrated; top entrepreneur of our time measured by actual outcomes.

Implication: Soft reinforces standing NVDA Y / HC — confirmation color, not a new memo.

x.com/alojoh/status/2103155276136231282

AJ: Cox est. Tesla Q3 US sales −31% YoY — tax-credit pullforward; adj. trend ~flat

Cox: Tesla Q3 US sales −31% YoY mostly Q3’25 EV tax-credit end pullforward from Q4’25; adjusting shows recent sales trend broadly flat.

Implication: Soft TSLA caution sleeve color — haircuts headline −31%; still not a long.

x.com/alojoh/status/2103155008489332884

Jukan/The Information: DeepSeek ARR ~$1bn — 70/30 train/infer; gaming GPUs

Evening PRIOR: DeepSeek ARR ~$1bn; 70% train / 30% infer; NVIDIA gaming GPUs for smaller-model inference — RTX 5090 retail dry-up cited.

Implication: Hard constructive DeepSeek commercial scale; soft NVDA gaming-GPU demand. Retained.

x.com/jukan05/status/2103010622019699076

Jukan: Muse viral via Meta distribution — capacity strained <1M users

Evening PRIOR: Muse Meta-distribution moat; capacity already strained before 1M users.

Implication: Soft constructive META booked / agentic; capacity strain = soft mixed caveat. Retained.

x.com/jukan05/status/2103005414485082594

Citrini: $NET $FSLY $META green on a red day — Agentic Reality / Muse

PRIOR: NET/FSLY/META outperformance; Agentic Reality overlay.

Implication: Soft META booked / agentic. Morning disruption NEW adds buy≠own filter.

x.com/citrini/status/2102819094177153036

Jukan/ZDNet: Samsung revises D0a DRAM roadmap — B1b hybrid bonding pulled forward

PRIOR: D0a→B1b hybrid bond; HBM5 B1b ~2029; commodity D0a ≥2y.

Implication: Hard constructive Samsung advanced DRAM packaging; soft longer-dated HBM5 vs SKHY. Retained into Mon open.

x.com/jukan05/status/2102642359687401795

Method: morning fxtwitter scrape (api.fxtwitter.com/2/profile/{handle}/statuses); Home unavailable. Cutoff after evening 2026-09-24 22:08 HKT. Priority: @alojoh @citrini @zephyr_z9 @jukan05 @BowTiedBull. Dropped: BowTiedBull lifestyle; alojoh xAI culture-war; alojoh EOS one-liner; citrini gap stub; no new Zephyr/jukan since eve.