Markets desk

Morning report — Mon 5 Oct 2026 ~07:55 HKT / 08:55 KST (research/paper)

Research/paper only. No live orders or recommendations. KRX CLOSED today (substitute holiday for Sat 3 Oct National Foundation Day) — last completed cash Fri 2 Oct; next cash Tue 6 Oct 09:00 KST. Fri/weekend prices are not a Monday gap. HKEX open today; Stock Connect southbound suspended until 8 Oct (mainland Golden Week). Monday age cut: news Fri 2 → Mon 5; DART ≥ Fri 2 Oct 15:40 KST.

watchlists US AJ: no new board rows. New Outlook AJ mail since Fri pack: Tesla Q3 2026 preview (Sun 4 Oct 01:10 HKT — deliveries 486,532 / 13.7 GWh; modeled revenue $29.1bn but operating margin only 1.4%; $0.45 non-GAAP EPS relies on non-operating items) → reinforces TSLA Caution; Market Valuation update (S&P 500 7,723 Fri, fwd P/E 19.1x, −0.1x w/w); a Masterclass education note; 3 app-only trade alerts Fri (not extractable). Standing Y: AVGO, MU, MRVL, NVDA (HC), XPEV, META, AMD, LITE. Wait ORCL; Caution TSLA, NIO; Watch SPCX; Avoid EOSE, EOS; N PLTR, AAPL, RIVN, SNDK; DELL watch title. Korea attractive: EMPTY (holiday).

asia news 8 items. Lead: HSI −2.60% to 23,972.29 on Fri reopen (worst day since 23 Mar; HSTECH −2.26%); HK AI names weak (MiniMax −3.0%, Zhipu −2.3%; price-war narrative). KOSPI Fri 7,003.74 (+0.45%) — first close above 7,000; foreigners sold ₩20.3tn of KOSPI Sep 1–Oct 2 (₩12.0tn in SK hynix) but the pace is easing. Samsung Q3 prelim due ~8 Oct. Trump 300%-tariff threat + N. Korea missile tests over the weekend.

X Priority authors only (fxtwitter OK 5/5). n_new=15 since Fri 21:55 HKT. Sentiment mixed / medium: memory/AI-infra constructive (custom-HBM base die, Samsung IGZO DRAM 2028, KR glass-substrate orders, LITE pricing) vs AJ TSLA bear stack, AMD 2027 packaging constraint, OpenAI chip-yield rumour and rates angst. Home timeline unavailable (no browser) — light inference from priority only.

DART Age window ≥ Fri 2 Oct 15:40 KST: 2 keeps (Duoback 073190 DOWN 8%+ — halted; Sangsangin 038540 UP 1-3% — leftover now into Tue 6 Oct open). todayRSS 0 items (holiday). No new SK hynix 000660 filing (window 18 Sep–5 Oct: 3 filings, newest 30 Sep).

funding BN vs HL (2026-10-05 07:49 HKT): SKHY BN 194.87 / HL 194.94 (-3.59 bp); SKHYNIX 1381.03 / SKHX 1381.10 (-0.51 bp). Majors within ±3 bp. Next BN funding 08:00 HKT. No spread usable after fees. Paper only.

Hynix Fri 2 cash 000660 ₩1,841,000 (+0.44%) O/H/L 1,830k / 1,855k / 1,825k · vol 2.03M · For −115k / Inst +76k / Ind −452k; foreign ownership 49.75%. SKHY Fri $195.13 (+0.84%); won 15:30 Fri 1,350.6 → same-session ADR premium +43.15%. Perps imply ~+1% over Fri close in USD terms — no cash session to test until Tue. Paper Seoul rule: NO.

HYROX Warsaw (7–11 Apr 2027, PGE Narodowy): ticket page still “Sale starts soon”; registration opens Wed 14 Oct 2026 12:00 CET / 18:00 HKT (already announced 23 Sep). Outlook re-checked this morning: no new Warsaw “registration open” mail. Nothing unsubscribed.

HK AI-model stocks slide on Fri reopen: MiniMax −3.0%, Zhipu (Z.ai) −2.3%; SenseTime among heavy decliners

Fri 2 Oct close (Yahoo): MiniMax 0100.HK HK$242.8 (−2.96% vs Wed 250.2); Zhipu/Z.ai 2513.HK HK$626.5 (−2.26% vs 641.0). Tiger cites an escalating global LLM price war (OpenAI/Anthropic/DeepSeek cheaper models), CICC's earlier 29.1% target cut on MiniMax and elevated short-selling. Longbridge lists SenseTime, Horizon Robotics, Kuaishou among the day's big losers.

Implication: China AI names entered Mon with price-war and valuation pressure intact and no southbound bid until 8 Oct; weak tape for HK AI beta.

www.itiger.com/news/1187432535

Alibaba lays out full-stack AI roadmap: Qwen 4 in training, Qwen 4.5/5 at 5–10T params, T-Head Zhenwu V900 chip

Alibaba said Qwen 4 is in training and Qwen 4.5/Qwen 5 will scale to 5–10 trillion parameters; T-Head's Zhenwu V900 AI processor claims 3× the Zhenwu M890 and targets mass production in Q1 2027. Alibaba 9988.HK closed Fri HK$104.4 (−2.1%); Tencent 0700.HK HK$421.2 (−2.3%) (Yahoo).

Implication: Constructive China in-house AI silicon + model roadmap, but the HK tape ignored it on a risk-off reopen; watch mainland reopen 8 Oct.

datacenternews.asia/story/alibaba-unveils-full-stack-ai-push-with-new-qw

Hang Seng −2.60% to 23,972.29 on holiday reopen — steepest drop since 23 Mar; HSTECH −2.26%

HSI −640.98 pts to 23,972.29; HSCEI −2.31% to 8,030.54; HSTECH −2.26% to 4,157.94. Catch-up to a global bond sell-off (US 10y ~24-year high), China stimulus disappointment; AIA −5.98%, HSBC −5.38% led. Southbound Stock Connect suspended from 1 Oct, resumes 8 Oct. Four straight weekly losses (−6.54% over 4 weeks).

Implication: HK enters Mon thin (no mainland flows) and rates-sensitive; rates are the swing factor for HK financials and tech.

www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/640433

KOSPI closes above 7,000 (+0.45% to 7,003.74); SK hynix +0.44% to ₩1.84m; Samsung flat at ₩276,000

Fri 2 Oct: KOSPI +32.39 pts to 7,003.74 on tech bargain hunting despite rates/oil worries; won firmer. Foreigners −₩143.78bn, individuals −₩1.72tn, institutions +₩381.38bn. Volume light (₩15.29tn). Last KRX cash before Mon 5 Oct substitute holiday.

Implication: Hard last-cash base for the Hynix desk; next cash Tue 6 Oct 09:00 KST — no Monday gap to measure.

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20261002006252320

Foreigners sold net ₩20.3tn of KOSPI in Sep–2 Oct; ₩12.0tn in SK hynix, ₩5.2tn in Samsung

Sep 1–Oct 2 net foreign sales ₩20.305tn (net buyers on 7 of 22 days); SK hynix ₩12.009tn, Samsung ₩5.186tn. Hynix foreign ownership 49.76% (lowest since May 2023). Pace easing: +₩243bn Oct 1, −₩190bn Oct 2. Samsung preliminary Q3 due ~8 Oct. KED (4 Oct): selling spreading beyond chipmakers as buying dries up.

Implication: Supply overhang on 000660 is fading, not gone; Samsung Q3 prelim (~8 Oct) is the next catalyst for foreign flows back into memory.

www.koreaherald.com/article/10892894

Micron closes in on SK Hynix for No. 2 in global DRAM — Q2 share gap just 1 percentage point

KED: Micron trailed SK Hynix by only ~1 pp of global DRAM market share in Q2 2026 (full article body not extractable this pull; headline/lead only).

Implication: Competitive read for 000660 DRAM share vs MU; tempers Hynix share narrative even as pricing stays tight.

www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipmakers/newsView/ked202610020004

China stockpiled ~343 ASML immersion DUV tools; ex-US officials urge total export ban

CTS report (Nicholas Brown, Saif Khan): Chinese-owned fabs held ~343 immersion DUV systems by early 2026, ~270 of them NXT:1980i; >US$13bn spent on ~90 in 2024 and 89 in 2025. China was 41% of ASML system sales in 2024, 33% in 2025.

Implication: Policy risk for ASML China sales and for China's 7nm-class/HBM ramp (Huawei Ascend, CXMT); tighter curbs would be a relative positive for KR memory.

www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3369557/china-stockpiles-asml-lithogr

Trump threatens tariffs up to 300% on firms that don't build US plants; presses Seoul on $350bn pledge and Alaska LNG

Trump said foreign companies that fail to build US factories could face tariffs of up to 300%, as Korea faces pressure over how it executes its $350bn US investment commitment; Yonhap (3 Oct) reports he threatened to 'charge' Korea more if it rejects the Alaska LNG project. Separately N. Korea fired an IRBM (3 Oct) and claimed a hypersonic test (4 Oct).

Implication: Headline tariff/geopolitical risk for the Tue KRX reopen; tariff threat is a negotiating lever, not an enacted rate.

www.koreaherald.com/article/10892919

Holiday read (arithmetic, not a gap): SKHYNIXUSDT 1381.03 vs Fri close ₩1,841,000 ÷ 1,350.6 = $1,363.1 → perp ≈ +1.3% over Fri close in USD (≈ +0.8% using Mon offshore USD/KRW ~1,343 from Yahoo). Best paper idea: log the perp-implied Tue open (~₩1.86m) against the Tue 09:00 KST auction as a perp-as-predictor test; BN−HL basis on SKHY/SKHX is only −3.6 / −0.5 bp and HL funding is noisy (24h realized only +0.7 / +0.3 bp), so no carry trade clears fees. Paper Seoul rule: NO (Leg A +0.44% fails ≤ −8%; Leg B +43.15% passes alone). No live, no SKHY short.

Live marks pulled 2026-10-05 07:49 HKT (BN via www.binance.com/fapi/v1 premiumIndex + fundingRate; HL POST api.hyperliquid.xyz/info metaAndAssetCtxs default + dex=xyz). KRX shut — SKHX/SKHYNIX oracles have no live cash leg today. Research/paper only. No fills.

Pair	BN−HL (bp)	BN lastFR	HL funding/hr	mark vs index/oracle bp (BN / HL)
BTCUSDT / BTC	-2.48	7.5200e-05	1.2500e-05	-4.29 / -1.83
ETHUSDT / ETH	-2.79	9.3050e-05	1.2500e-05	-3.19 / -0.73
SOLUSDT / SOL	-0.48	1.0000e-04	1.2500e-05	-4.78 / -4.81
SKHYUSDT / xyz:SKHY	-3.59	0.0000e+00	4.8956e-05	+10.65 / +12.33
SKHYNIXUSDT / xyz:SKHX	-0.51	5.4620e-05	4.3468e-05	+4.00 / +10.87

Marks: BN SKHY 194.87 / HL 194.94; BN SKHYNIX 1381.03 / HL SKHX 1381.10. Next BN funding 08:00 HKT (all five; SKHYNIXUSDT on 4h cadence). BN settled last 24h: SKHYUSDT 0 / 0 / 0; SKHYNIXUSDT 0 at 20:00, 00:00, 04:00 HKT.

Estimated carry (short HL / long BN, per 8h at live prints): BTC ≈ +0.25 bp; ETH ≈ +0.07 bp; SOL ≈ 0; SKHY ≈ +3.9 bp (BN 0 vs HL 4.9e-5/hr); SKHX ≈ +2.4 bp (HL 3.5 bp − BN 1.1 bp). But HL 24h realized sums are far lower (xyz:SKHY +7.4e-5, xyz:SKHX +3.0e-5 per day; BTC/ETH ~+3e-4) — the live hourly print is a spike, not a run rate. Round-trip taker fees across both venues (~15–20 bp) swamp every row. Verdict: no usable spread; observe only.

HL funding is hourly (×8 is a rough match to BN 8h). No HL SKHYNIX symbol — paired to xyz:SKHX. SKHY/SKHX marks sit +10–12 bp over index/oracle on both venues (holiday thin books). Carry ignores fees, borrow, caps, inventory, liquidation risk.

Ticker	Follow	Note
AVGO	Y	Standing Y. Unchanged.
MU	Y	Standing Y (AJ FQ4 memo Thu 1 Oct: thesis reinforced; one exception paywalled).
NVDA	Y (HC)	Standing. Weekend X: custom HBM (NVHBM) frees GPU die area.
MRVL	Y	Unchanged.
XPEV	Y	Standing Y.
META	Y	Standing Y.
AMD	Y	Standing Y. X color: 2027 server-CPU upside packaging-constrained (mixed).
LITE	Y	Standing Y. X color: laser pricing power.
ORCL	Y wait	Wait sleeve. Unchanged.
TSLA	caution	NEW AJ Q3 preview (Sun 4 Oct 01:10 HKT): 486,532 deliveries, 13.7 GWh; modeled revenue $29.1bn, operating profit $419m (1.4% margin vs 2.3% Q2 ex one-offs); $0.45 non-GAAP EPS leans on non-operating items. Plus X: storage growth at 4-year low, Cybertruck −86% vs target, robotaxi-hours mockery. Caution reinforced.
NIO	caution	Unchanged.
SPCX	watch	Watch, not a Y.
EOSE / EOS	avoid	Still avoid.
PLTR / AAPL / RIVN / SNDK	N	Unchanged.
DELL	watch title	Not a Y (initiation still paywalled).

Other AJ mail: Market Valuation & Featured Coverage Update (Sat 3 Oct 13:45 HKT — S&P 500 7,723, −0.3% w/w; forward P/E 19.1x, −0.1x; rest paywalled); Masterclass “Tactical Timing Layer” (Sun 12:47 HKT, education, no ticker); trade alerts Fri 17:16 / 17:19 / 22:06 HKT are app-only — tickers not visible. No new Y ticker. Paper.

KRX CLOSED Mon 5 Oct 2026 (substitute holiday for National Foundation Day, Sat 3 Oct). Last cash Fri 2 Oct; next cash Tue 6 Oct 09:00 KST. Attractive list: EMPTY (no sourced non-Hynix name; DART keeps are not list promotions).

Fri 2 cash: KOSPI 7,003.74 (+0.45%); 000660 ₩1,841,000 (+0.44%); 005930 ₩276,000 (0.00%). Yonhap flows: foreigners −₩143.78bn / institutions +₩381.38bn / individuals −₩1.72tn. Won 15:30 1,350.6 (−7.8). Month-to-date context: foreigners −₩20.3tn Sep 1–Oct 2 (Hynix −₩12.0tn). Watch into Tue: Samsung Q3 prelim (~8 Oct), Trump tariff/Alaska LNG pressure, N. Korea tests. Fri 9 Oct is Hangeul Day (public holiday) — confirm KRX closure before Thu pack.

Jukan / The Wire China: China's YMTC expects the NAND shortage to last another three years — 'and you're still modeling NAND oversupply by end of next year?'

Implication: Constructive memory-cycle duration read (Samsung / SK hynix NAND, MU/SNDK); even a Chinese capacity-adder sees no glut soon. Source is a company view, not data.

x.com/jukan05/status/2106940458761089227

Zephyr 'More love for Ibiden' QT FundaAI: high-end ABF substrate capacity still can't keep pace with AI-chip area/layer counts; Intel/AMD 2027 server CPU +36%/+62% on 56–63% larger substrates; next price step at 27Q1 contract renewals.

Implication: Constructive ABF/substrate sleeve (Ibiden 4062 JP and peers); consistent with the AMD packaging-constraint post. Sell-side style forecast, not a print.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2106916539589177690

Jukan (3 posts): ~60% of SPCX's 10GW goes to its own demand, only 40% to external customers; SPCX also reportedly building its own optical fiber and reverse-engineering racks/chillers to vertically integrate.

Implication: Mixed: strong in-house AI compute demand (good for GPU/HBM pull) but a negative read for third-party rack, cooling and fiber suppliers. SPCX stays Watch. Hearsay ('apparently').

x.com/jukan05/status/2106907946890457304

Jukan RT FredaDuan: 'AI drug discovery is becoming a bottleneck trade' — TWST guides triple-digit AIDD order growth FY26 and FY27; GenScript AIDD doubled YoY in 1H26; CRO/animal-testing capacity tight.

Implication: Off-core theme (biotech picks-and-shovels); no read for KR/memory book. Context only.

x.com/FredaDuan/status/2106851949400469887

PRIOR (Mon AM): Zephyr: Powertech's FOPLP advanced-packaging capacity is 'a huge problem for AMD'; QT Aletheia: AMD 2027E server-CPU upside supply-constrained (~$40b / 13.5m units), 2028E +70% / +30% as TSMC N2 and ASE FOCoS-Bridge output grow.

Implication: AMD (Y-list) demand intact but 2027 upside capped by packaging supply; mixed AMD, constructive for packaging suppliers.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2106719792891851255

PRIOR (Mon AM): Jukan: keeps hearing OpenAI's first-gen in-house chip 'Jalapeño' has yield issues; rumours OpenAI is pulling in the 2nd generation.

Implication: Unverified rumour; mixed for OpenAI custom-ASIC partners and a reminder GPU/HBM demand isn't easily displaced near term.

x.com/jukan05/status/2106704525960851930

PRIOR (Mon AM): Jukan QT SemiAnalysis: Meta's 'Muse Charm' personal AI device expected to run on Qualcomm Snapdragon; notes QCOM also working with OpenAI.

Implication: Soft constructive QCOM edge-AI devices; not a KR cash print.

x.com/jukan05/status/2106580842797826068

PRIOR (Mon AM): Jukan / KIPOST: Japan's Toppan and DNP expected to order glass-substrate manufacturing equipment from Korean companies this month; Toppan targets glass-core FC-BGA production in 2028.

Implication: Constructive for Korean glass-substrate equipment makers into Tue reopen (names not given in post — do not infer).

x.com/jukan05/status/2106577689809424537

PRIOR (Mon AM): AJ (4 posts) mocks Elon's reason for moving Robotaxi hours from 10pm to 11pm ('avoid grey kittens') — argues it's an excuse after 12bn miles.

Implication: Adds to AJ's TSLA bear stack (robotaxi credibility); TSLA stays Caution.

x.com/alojoh/status/2106447642700165163

PRIOR (Mon AM): Zephyr '👀' QT TheElec: Samsung to bring IGZO cell transistors (replacing silicon) to DRAM mass production in 2028 — 4F2 vertical channel first, then stacked layers toward monolithic 3D.

Implication: Constructive Samsung DRAM roadmap; competitive watch for 000660 tech lead.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2106286872490287235

PRIOR (Mon AM): Jukan / Culpium: TSMC exploring participation in Musk's Terafab; Intel collaboration 'not making progress'. Follow-up 16:22: Elon replied 'Just discussions, but something may come of it.'

Implication: Mixed: incremental TSMC US-capacity optionality; negative read for Intel foundry hopes on Terafab.

x.com/jukan05/status/2106149596418470138

PRIOR (Mon AM): Zephyr RT SemiAnalysis: custom HBM moves the memory controller onto the HBM base die — NVHBM cuts HBM controller/PHY share of GPU die from ~16% (Rubin) to ~4% (Feynman); Samsung custom HBM4 interface ~60% smaller than standard PHY.

Implication: Constructive memory-maker value capture (base die) for Samsung/SK hynix in HBM4E+.

x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2106217837643575607

PRIOR (Mon AM): Zephyr on LITE valuation question: 'They can easily squeeze the ASPs of their lasers — will Michael Hurlston pull the trigger?'

Implication: Pricing-power argument for LITE (standing Y).

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2106158758938427770

PRIOR (Mon AM): BowTiedBull: reads policy as cutting debt/GDP via above-expected inflation ('fiscal dominance and financial repression') — 'same reason TIPS are mooning'; earlier: 'markets rally as job data worsens'.

Implication: Opinion, not data; mixed rates/real-asset color consistent with the bond sell-off backdrop.

x.com/BowTiedBull/status/2106101729666486768

PRIOR (Mon AM): AJ: Ford Q3 2026 EVs dropped to ~6K units (~1% of total) — 'Ford killed EVs, as predicted'.

Implication: Bearish legacy-auto EV demand read; context for TSLA/XPEV/NIO sleeve.

x.com/alojoh/status/2106069689562784056

PRIOR (Mon AM): Zephyr RT teortaxes: 'surprisingly little buzz' about DeepSeek's DeepGEMM-Ascend open-source release (99.8% of hardware limit on GEMM, 98% on MegaMoE) — 'a warning shot'.

Implication: Constructive China AI-on-domestic-silicon (Huawei Ascend) path; soft negative NVDA-China narrative.

x.com/teortaxesTex/status/2106068568421097943

PRIOR (Mon AM): AJ: Tesla 'Other Models' ≈ Cybertruck at ~8.3K in Q3 → ~33K annualized, 86% below the original 240K target.

Implication: TSLA Caution reinforced.

x.com/alojoh/status/2106064950263181435

PRIOR (Mon AM): AJ: Tesla energy-storage growth at a 4-year low — LTM deployments +15% YoY (lowest since Sep 2022); YTD +11%.

Implication: Bearish TSLA Energy leg; pairs with Fri deliveries beat / storage miss.

x.com/alojoh/status/2106042408676794368

PRIOR (Mon AM): Zephyr QT: Rosenblatt first to defend STX, arguing Toshiba's Philippine HDD expansion lands closer to 2030; QT'd author calls it a weak excuse.

Implication: Mixed STX/WDC after Fri −10%: sell-side pushback vs supply-add risk.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2106036165036130452

PRIOR (Fri eve): AJ — TSLA deliveries beat Street by ~5.3% but missed storage deployments by ~13.8% (~2.2 GWh).

Implication: Mixed TSLA print; Caution sleeve.

x.com/alojoh/status/2106018087933722951

Method: api.fxtwitter.com/2/profile/{handle}/statuses (curl UA). Cutoff NEW: after 2026-10-04 20:15 HKT. home_available=false (no Home timeline read this run; tape inferred lightly from priority authors). Skipped non-market: alojoh: 'saved Tesla investors' self-promo + fan RTs; Elon-kittens argument RT; citrini: RT 'Hyperliquid perps live on the Terminal' (product promo); zephyr_z9: Napoleon telegraph code-break RT/QT; BowTiedBull: mortgage payoff, newsletter promo, FSD insurance, crypto-cycle anecdote, lifestyle.