Markets desk

Pack written to the site (not just chat). Paper only.

watchlists AJ last extract 22 Aug. No new mail/X from AJ overnight. MU still largest seat. XPEV still the long (VLA 630 + left-for-dead). TSLA caution (Cybertruck +6–7% after volume collapse). ORCL wait, EOSE avoid, SPCX watch. Korea: Hynix after Tue +0.42%.

news Overnight: DeepSeek-V4-Flash #1 on Vercel open-weight surge (Zhipu GLM-5.2 #4); Jack Ma >HK$600m 09988 buy after the placing; KED Groq 3 LPX mass production at Samsung Foundry (lede); Hynix union rejects wage deal 50.08–49.92; KOSPI Tue +0.68% with foreigners −₩3.82trn. GLM-5.3 weights still ~Fri 28 Aug. No MiniMax/Kimi.

X Dominant: OpenAI Jalapeño custom ASIC (SemiAnalysis/Hot Chips) vs Vera Rubin NVL72, Samsung HBM4. Jukan: 9-month design cycle, manufacturing is the remaining moat; YMTC/CXMT raising ex-China memory share. Zephyr: labs co-design faster than NVDA/AMD. AJ/Citrini none post-cutoff. Tape mixed, tilting risk-on AI-infra with a rotation undertone.

DART no 000660. Two AM keeps: Daegu Department Store 006370 SPA terminated (down 3–8%, 8–20% tail); Iljin Power 094820 ₩15.7bn Dongseo overhaul (up 1–3%). Aptn/Golfzon/Koiz/Wonpung/Samryung/Serim stay. Hanmi still lead from 24 Aug.

funding Paper. SKHYNIXUSDT 1225.52 vs xyz:SKHX 1228.4 (HL +23.5 bp, half of Tue). SKHYUSDT 159.38 vs xyz:SKHY 159.23 (HL −9 bp). BN funding 0; HL +0.06 / +0.42 bp per hour. Carry does not cover taker. No new BN–HL sit. Next 08:00 HKT.

Hynix Tue close 000660 = 1,678,000 (+0.42%) V 4.03m. For −1.23m / Inst +197k; shorts UNKNOWN. SKHY 159.53. USDKRW 1,385.97. ADS=0.1 → prem +31.77%. Not convert arb. Union rejected tentative wage deal. Best paper idea: no new BN–HL sit.

DeepSeek-V4-Flash leads Chinese open-weight surge on Vercel

Open-weight models were 54% of Vercel AI Gateway token volume as of Tue (closed 46%); record 62%/38% on Sat vs 28%/72% on 24 Jun. Tue top-5 by tokens: DeepSeek-V4-Flash #1, StepFun Step 3.7 Flash #2, OpenAI GPT-5.6 Luna #3, Zhipu/Z.ai GLM-5.2 #4, DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731 #5.

HK/KR AI names: inference demand is rotating to cheap Chinese open weights (DeepSeek, Zhipu), not US closed models — supports token-volume, hurts API-pricing power into NVDA print.

SCMP

Jack Ma buys >HK$600m of Alibaba shares after AI placing

Sources: Ma bought more than HK$600m of HK-listed 09988 on consecutive days as an AI-ambition signal. Filings: Tsai + Wu spent a cumulative HK$202m over two days — Tsai ~HK$82m Tue after ~HK$80m Mon, Wu ~HK$40m Mon. Came after Sunday’s new-share issuance. Alibaba (SCMP owner) had not commented as of Tue.

Overnight 09988 tape is founder+chair+CEO buying vs Sunday dilution. Watch whether the Ma print sticks in the open or fades as another placing-overhang tell.

SCMP

Alibaba’s HK$80bn AI placing: shareholders pay first

Column: after saying AI Cloud +45% and capex can pay back in three years, Alibaba placed HK$80bn of new shares Sunday. Five-year AI-cloud commercial-revenue target US$100bn (~Rmb720bn) at 20% EBITA vs current ~Rmb100bn-level revenue (needs ~50% CAGR; margin 12%→20%). Prior: US$5bn converts May-24, ~US$5bn USD+dim-sum Nov-24, HK$12bn Ali Health exchangeables Jul-25, ~US$3.2bn converts Sep-25 — debt first, now ordinary shares. CMR −7% latest quarter.

09988 open is still equity-financed AI capex, not model scores. Follow-on risk stays on the tape even with Ma/Tsai/Wu buys.

HKET

Samsung foundry: Nvidia Groq 3 LPX enters mass production

KED 25 Aug (lede; rest of page is related-story dump): Nvidia has begun mass production of its Groq 3 LPX inference accelerator for AI-agent workloads, which KED calls a significant milestone for Samsung Electronics’ foundry as the unit seeks a return to profitability this year.

NVDA-China/KR tape: foundry print is the overnight Samsung offset to Mon–Tue memory-skid. Do not extrapolate yields/ASP — only the lede loaded.

KED Global

KOSPI +0.68% to 6,742.74 into Nvidia earnings week

Tue close: KOSPI +45.78 pts / +0.68% at 6,742.74 after opening −2.4% (Mon was −3%+ as chipmakers fell on AI-investment profitability fears). Individuals net +W1.0trn, institutions +W1.17trn, foreigners −W3.82trn. Overnight US mixed (Dow +0.26%, Nasdaq −0.76%). Warsh speaks Jackson Hole Fri US time.

Seoul bounced but foreign selling stayed heavy into NVDA. Open is still a chip-beta event, not a trend reversal.

Yonhap

SK hynix union rejects tentative wage deal 50.08%–49.92%

Tue news summary: after two months of talks, 7,535 of 15,045 voting members (50.08%) rejected the tentative deal in an e-ballot that closed 09:00 Tue; turnout 93.8% (15,045 of 16,083). KED same-day lede (ked202608250003, truncated): both sides back to the table; next talks expected to centre on performance-sharing bonus distribution.

Labour overlay on Hynix into NVDA week. Not a production-halt print, but bonus-mix is back in play after the 40trn-won buyback.

Yonhap

Apple-supply chain: memory-price squeeze hits 1H profits

Lens Technology 1H net income nearly halved to Rmb577m (US$85.8m); revenue −12.4% to Rmb28.9bn. Company blamed soaring consumer-electronics memory costs for weaker demand and cut output at Xiangtan; FX also squeezed profit. Filing Tue: 2H hopes rest on UTG / CPI / 3D glass for a foldable with its key client (widely understood as Apple). Kuo Ming-chi has named Lens as Apple UTG supplier.

Memory tightness is now a handset-BOM hit, not just HBM ASP. Samsung/Hynix pricing power vs end-demand is the same two-sided tape as the NVDA server-hike debate.

SCMP

BOK business sentiment 99.6, near 4-year high, vs CCSI drop

Wed: CBSI all-industry 99.6 in Aug, +1.1pt, highest since Sep 2022 (102). Manufacturing 103.8 (+0.6), 4th month >100 since May (first >100 since Aug 2022). Non-manufacturing 96.7 (+1.5) on vacation-season transport/leisure/broadcasting. Sep outlook 99.6 (+3.1 from 96.5). ESI 99.4 (+1.5). Reading <100 means pessimists still outnumber optimists.

Corporate sentiment diverges from yesterday’s CCSI 104.5 first drop in 4 months. Factories still bid the cycle; households already marked the KOSPI correction. Macro is not the open catalyst vs NVDA.

Yonhap

SKHYUSDT vs SKHYNIX/10 premium + BN funding

Share-equivalent hedge is 10 SKHY per 1 SKHYNIX. Dollar hedge leaves leftover Hynix beta.

26 Aug 07:21 HKT. SKHYNIXUSDT 1225.52 vs xyz:SKHX 1228.4 (HL +23.5 bp). SKHYUSDT 159.38 vs xyz:SKHY 159.23 (HL −9 bp). BN funding 0 (SKHY 8h / SKHYNIX 4h); HL +0.0625 bp/h SKHY, +0.419 bp/h SKHX. Next 08:00 HKT. 8h $100k carry +$5 / +$33.50 vs ~$280 RT taker. no new BN–HL sit.

Seoul paper rule did not fire Mon or Tue. KRX 09:00 KST. Paper only.

Ticker	Follow	Note
MU	Y	Cheapest PEG in 22 Aug AJ article. China-memory export (YMTC/CXMT) is the overnight overlay.
XPEV	Y	AJ $12.20 / long-XPEV deep dive + VLA 630 “gap not 4–5 years”. No new AJ overnight.
META / AMD	Y	Corridor entries after the dump. Jalapeño is a merchant-GPU headwind for AMD.
ORCL	Y	Wait, don’t chase. Home tape: Saline Township MI DC campus promo.
PLTR / AAPL	N	Expensive growth. Apple eval of CXMT/YMTC is a Jukan overlay, not an AJ print.
EOSE	avoid	AJ red flags
TSLA	caution	Cybertruck +6–7% after volume collapse; sells at ~cost. No new AJ overnight.
SPCX	watch	AJ follow-up unchanged. Home: Starbase Louisiana $100bn+ spaceport chatter.

Source @alojoh 22 Aug extract. No new overnight mail or AJ posts after 21:35 HKT.

Tue 25 Aug: KOSPI +0.68% to 6,742.74 after a −2.4% open (Yonhap). Individuals +₩1.0trn, institutions +₩1.17trn, foreigners −₩3.82trn. 000660 1,678,000 (+0.42%) V 4.03m; For −1.23m / Inst +197k; shorts UNKNOWN. Official daily MDC still missing.

Hynix union rejected the tentative wage deal 50.08%–49.92% (93.8% turnout). KED: Nvidia Groq 3 LPX mass production is a Samsung Foundry milestone (lede only). Memory-price squeeze hitting Apple-supply 1H profits (SCMP / Lens).

Mon 24 still in the tape: KOSPI −3.12%, Samsung −8.7% on ₩90–110tn return. Last week 17–21 Aug: Liberation Day Mon; Wed crash then Thu bounce after ₩40조 buyback/cancel.

Jalapeño: design moat erodes, manufacturing remains

Barrier to chip design is collapsing. Manufacturing is the remaining moat — until robots. Who benefits as the design moat erodes.

Tape: rotation thesis — long TSMC / HBM / ABF-packaging; fade pure design premium (NVDA, ARM, AMD).

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Labs co-design silicon faster than Nvidia/AMD

Because they have cutting-edge internal models. QT: GPT-Astra helped develop Jalapeño; Codex+GPT-Astra for kernels. Background: Jalapeño claimed better perf/$ and perf/W than Vera Rubin NVL72, Samsung HBM4.

Tape: custom-ASIC share-gain vs merchant GPU. Negative-at-the-margin NVDA/AMD into earnings week.

tweet

YMTC/CXMT pushing memory outside China

DigiTimes: raising the share of memory shipped ex-China. YMTC selling NAND to third-party module makers for enterprise drives. Apple evaluating CXMT/YMTC; possible US green light around Sept Trump–Xi.

Tape: China memory finding indirect NA cloud routes. Medium-term NAND/DRAM overhang — MU, 000660, Samsung.

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Jalapeño chip in nine months

“It's amazing that they managed to develop the chip in just nine months.”

Tape: design-cycle compression is the shock, not the spec sheet. NVDA moat-narrowing.

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Jalapeño-bullish-Cerebras argument — Jukan doesn’t buy it

Flags the idea that Jalapeño forces Meta/AWS to adopt Cerebras more aggressively. Not his view.

Tape: watch CBRS chatter and META/AMZN accelerator capex. Not a bid.

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Ajinomoto ABF film shortage — AI/high-end first, 2Q26 full

Meritz channel checks: Ajinomoto tells customers of acute ABF film shortage, prioritizing AI/high-end. 2Q26 ABF lines already at full utilization.

Tape: AI-server substrate bottleneck. Positive ABF/substrate names; risk to non-AI package supply.

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CXMT seen as key LPDDR6 supplier for Xiaomi Xring O3

Chinese media: CXMT expected to be a key LPDDR6 supplier for Xiaomi’s Xring O3.

Tape: CXMT moving up the LPDDR stack. Medium-term mobile-DRAM pricing risk for Samsung/SKHY.

tweet

XPeng VLA 630: gap is nowhere near 4–5 years

QT of @thinkercar on XPeng 2nd-gen VLA 630 upgrade. “Not a one horse race.”

Tape: continues the long-XPEV / fade-TSLA autonomy-gap trade.

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Cybertruck +6–7% after volume collapse

Standard & Premium hike, framed as loss-per-unit repair. AJ: TSLA sells Cybertrucks at ~cost.

Tape: TSLA demand-side negative. Pricing is margin defense, not strength.

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Qwen 3.8 Flash Next tomorrow — Qwen 4 architecture

125B params + 51B N-gram, 6B active. Releasing tomorrow.

Tape: China open-weight cadence. Supports BABA / Alibaba-ecosystem AI.

tweet

Blackwell getting killed at higher interactivity

Caveat: labs don’t serve users at 100+ tps/user.

Tape: mild NVDA-bear datapoint vs inference-ASIC narrative into earnings week.

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Macro memo: bank liquidity regs, Bessent twist, Warsh Jackson Hole

Stayed up writing it. Not published yet. Joke Bessent post skipped.

Tape: SLR / duration-supply tease. Long XBI Short QQQ standing unchanged. No PCE print on the timeline.

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US asked Seoul to build memory fabs in the US

Per local Korean media (Chosun): the U.S. government asked the South Korean government to build memory fabs in the U.S. and ensure stable memory supply.

Tape: onshore capex/cost risk for Samsung/Hynix after Monday’s dump; supply-security bid for US memory/equipment. Not a DART print.

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Samsung + SK Hynix step up NAND capex in China

Samsung converting local lines to latest NAND; Hynix adding ~30k wpm H2'26–2027 (zdnet.co.kr).

Tape: NAND capex upcycle; supply risk 2027 NAND pricing. Mildly negative memory-price bulls, positive equipment; SKHY China NAND mix.

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XPeng left for dead: −71% vs market while launching humanoids + global FSD

Deep dive at ajinvestmentresearch.com (+ paid HC follow-up). AJ rotating anti-TSLA / pro-China-EV into a long XPEV thesis.

Tape: dir-up XPEV / mixed vs TSLA. Earlier 20:22 HKT XPeng GM vs TSLA is before cutoff — not a NEW card.

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GROQ 3 LPX in Full Production LFG

QT Wall St Engine: NVDA Groq 3 LPX low-latency inference extending Vera Rubin NVL72 in full production.

Tape: bullish NVDA inference; supports +15% accelerator hike.

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#SamsungFoundry QT of Groq 3 LPX

Groq 3 LPX maybe Samsung Foundry — a foundry offset to Samsung −8.7%.

Tape: 005930 foundry color, not a bits print. Paired with Zephyr Groq 3 LPX full-production QT.

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“What happened? Has another one of Leopold's funds blown up?”

AI-fund blow-up chatter. No ticker named in the post.

Tape: mixed. Overlay on NVDA week / AI-hardware bid, not a SKHY print.

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Xiaomi bonding 50μm→1.4μm — “who is actually stacking this chip??”

“Extremely similar to Huawei's Logic Folding.” Advanced packaging / China stacking. Just before the 21:30 HKT cutoff; not on last evening strip (that had the 15:52 HKT TSMC-fab question).

Tape: China stacking color. Not a SKHY print.

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Long XBI Short QQQ?

No new public post overnight. Exact standing text unchanged. Pin is the 2022 $SIVB short.

Tape: long biotech vs mega-cap tech. Unchanged vs the AI-hardware bid / NVDA week.

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TSLA Cybercab: “none of which has been priced in, right?”

Evening still-live. Sarcastic fade of a bull arguing EV/FSD/Megapack/Semi ramps are real. Treats the Cybercab event as already in the price.

Tape: leftover, not NEW. Still fading TSLA into the event; AM add is the long-XPEV leg above.

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Following via logged-in @levturtle. Morning pass. Cutoff newer than 21:35 HKT 25 Aug.

• Dominant: OpenAI Jalapeño custom ASIC (SemiAnalysis/Hot Chips) claimed better perf/$ and perf/W than NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72, Samsung HBM4.
• Jukan: 9-month design cycle; manufacturing is the remaining moat; YMTC/CXMT raising ex-China memory share (NAND via third-party modules; Apple eval).
• Zephyr: frontier labs co-design faster than NVDA/AMD via internal models. AJ none. Citrini none; XBI/QQQ standing. BowTied lifestyle only.
• Home: mixed, tilting risk-on AI-infra with a rotation undertone. Anthropic >$30tn opportunity chatter, Oracle MI DC campus, Goldman AI-credit. No PCE, no KOSPI, no explicit NVDA-week positioning — Jalapeño is the NVDA headwind.

Overall: mixed, tilting risk-on in AI-infra with a rotation to fabs/HBM/packaging. JSON: x-feed.json

Dongseo Power Dangjin #6 overhaul — ₩15.7bn, 6.22% of sales

자율공시. 한국동서발전 당진 6호기 A급 보일러 계획예방정비. KRW 15.666bn, 6.22% of 2025 consol. sales (₩252bn). 31 Aug–16 Nov. Repeat counterparty, signed 25 Aug, no advance. Last 11,900 pre-open, mcap ~₩179bn → contract ~8.7% of mcap.

DART

Control-change SPA terminated — 2nd installment unpaid

구정모 외 6인 25.82% @ ₩8,000 (₩22.4bn) SPA auto-terminates after ₩7.0bn 2nd installment missed 25 Aug. Buyer had already swapped to 리앤고파트너스. ₩3.4bn already paid is forfeit to sellers, not the company. Last 4,410 already ~45% below deal. Illiquid; 8–20% tail if gap-and-go.

DART

Exclusive license for GPC-100 (Burixafor) — ₩6.5bn cash, big milestones

Buys exclusive license from GPCRT for GPC-100 (CXCR4 antagonist) + combo method. Cash ₩0.5bn due 26 Aug + ₩6.0bn due 24 Nov (₩6.5bn). Last FY sales ₩16.90bn → cash is ~38% of sales. Conditional on regulator OK; can terminate on R&D halt or approval fail. Milestones to originator GPC-R: MM NDA ₩30bn, SCD NDA ₩20bn, AML NDA ₩20bn, plus sales-tier fees; running royalty 10% of net sales.

DART

Board opinion on SJ Partners 2nd tender — take-private / delist path

SJ Partners (One-Hundred Partners 100%) 2nd tender 10 Aug–2 Sep for remaining 5,742,701 sh after buying 9,742,319 on 7 Aug. 1st tender 29 Jun–5 Aug targeted 15,485,020 sh (36.15% of 42.84m, ex largest holder Kim Young-chan + treasury). Holders: Kim Won-il 43.37%, Kim Young-chan 10.65%, SJ Partners 22.74% (76.76% combined), treasury ~9.8%. Goal: 100% sub then delist.

DART

Delisting clock: 56 days below ₩20bn mkt cap, 0 days above

Management-issue since 5 Jun (30-day mkt-cap miss). After 90 trading days must have 10 consecutive days ≥₩20bn or 30 days cumulative. As of 25 Aug close: 56 days elapsed, 56 days under ₩20bn, 0 days over. At 61 days under, the 30-day-over test is mathematically dead and delist process starts.

DART

Delisting clock: 10 more days under ₩20bn can force delist

Management-issue since 3 Jul. Needs 45 consecutive days ≥₩20bn within 90 trading days. 36 days elapsed, 0 consecutive days over. If mkt cap stays under ₩20bn for 10 more consecutive days, delisting can proceed.

DART

Unfaithful-disclosure pre-notice — late CEO-change filing

Type: disclosure failure. Event 27 Mar, filed 30 Jul, pre-notice 25 Aug. Decision deadline 17 Sep. Trailing 1-year penalty points 0.0. If designated and this case ≥8 pts, 1-day halt; ≥10 trailing can trigger substantive review.

DART

Management-issue warning — close under ₩1,000 for 25 sessions

KOSDAQ rule: close <₩1,000 for 30 consecutive sessions → management issue. As of 25 Aug, 25 sessions under. Five more sessions from 26 Aug and it can be designated.

DART

Control change: ₩13bn 3rd-party to a 1-month-old shell

Siwon Innotech (₩990m equity, no sales) becomes largest holder 15 Sep. Plus ₩8bn CB (18% if converted) and a ₩4.5bn old-CB buyback.

DART

Unfaithful-disclosure warning — paid-in date slipped 6+ months

Pre-notice, decision 16 Sep. Zero points on the clock, so halt is not the base case. Tiny name still gaps on these.

DART

Buys 90% of Future Hitech (semi test gear) for ₩34bn

11% of assets, 13% of equity. Kids-book publisher walking into semiconductor equipment. FTC filing required.

DART

Humanoid-robot reducers — ₩1.92bn, 27% of FY sales

Unnamed Korean OEM, through Apr 2028. No down payment. Tiny reducer name; 27% of sales is the gap.

DART

Ansan plant ₩55.5bn, 57% of equity

Eye-drop/solid-dose building + warehouse through Sep 2029. Includes the Nov 2025 ₩9.5bn. Capacity up, cash out mostly in 2027.

DART

Ammonia cargo to PHILPHOS — ₩3.71bn, 29% of FY sales

USD 2.68m, T/T, through 27 Dec. Spot trade, not production. Tiny name; 29% of sales is the gap.

DART

LGD Vietnam OLED laminator — ₩5.8bn, 18% of FY sales

USD 4.15m, 90% down, through Nov 2027. Small tool name; 18% of sales is the gap.

DART

MOBIS NA HEV inverter — ₩20bn, 11.8% of FY sales

USD 14.6m, FOB, through 15 Apr 2027. Straight equipment print.

DART

Rehab abolished — no plan filed

Court (2025회합196) ended rehab 20 Aug, confirmed today. Next is likely bankruptcy. Tiny name, may already be halted.

DART

Genentech takes HM17321 — $190m up front, $2.31bn headline

LA-UCN2 agonist, worldwide ex-Korea. Milestones $2.12bn + royalties. Cash is the $190m; the rest is binary. Parent filed the same notice.

DART

Expo 2027 Montenegro — ₩73bn, 43.5% of FY sales

EUR 45m pavilion job through Dec 2027. Huge vs a ~₩70bn name. Collection/execution risk, but the % is the gap.

DART

AI NPU ASIC — ₩18.2bn, 15% of FY sales

Signed 12 Mar, disclosed now. Mix $8.7m + ₩5.4bn. Delayed, so some of it may be in the price.

DART

FY swing to ₩7.4bn profit vs a loss

Sales +6.7% to ₩178bn, OP +27% to ₩8.4bn. Unaudited. Triggered the 30% P&L-change rule.

DART

Daesan NCC shutdown story: not confirmed, plan was rejected

Creditors rejected a ~₩1.2tn restructuring plan 23 Feb. Still looking at NCC cuts. Firm answer in 6 months.

DART

US Big Tech DC substation — ₩231bn, 4.65% of FY sales

Via LS ELECTRIC AMERICA. Signed 8 Jun, amount locked 21 Aug, through 30 Jan 2027. Same print at parent LS — count once.

DART

Old job marked up: ₩143bn → ₩193bn (12.3% of sales)

Correction, not a new award. End date slipped to 30 Apr 2027. Small-cap construction; +₩50bn can still print. Holdings 060980 is the same filing.

DART

Supply contract KRW 21bn — 14.9% of last FY sales

Hoffman Construction (US, Idaho), PFC abatement gear, USD 15.1m, 21 Aug 2026–30 Jul 2027. Large vs 141bn FY sales. Not a rumor; DART during the cash session.

DART

CTP51 Keytruda biosimilar — Korea product-license application

Application, not approval. Small positive if the street was not already counting a KR filing; not a rerating on its own.

DART