Markets desk

Morning report — Fri 2 Oct 2026 ~07:48 HKT (research/paper)

Research/paper only. No live orders or recommendations. KRX Fri cash — open 2 Oct 09:00 KST (still PREOPEN at pack). Last completed cash Thu 1. Age-cut: news Thu 1 + Fri 2; DART ≥ Thu 1 15:40 KST.

watchlists US AJ: no NEW overnight board rows (Outlook CONNECTED; Thu 1 MU Fiscal Q4 memo teaser reiterates constructive view — MU already standing Y, not a new row; 6× app-only Trade alerts). Standing Y: AVGO, MU, MRVL, NVDA (HC), XPEV, META, AMD. Wait ORCL; Caution TSLA, NIO; Watch SPCX; Avoid EOSE, EOS; N PLTR, AAPL, RIVN, SNDK. Korea attractive: EMPTY. 000660 is Hynix desk only. Dell/Warsh still not added.

asia news (unchanged from prior desk card — morning pack did not re-pull Asia tape). See prior Thu brief / desk boards for Micron FQ4 read-through color.

X Morning pack: @alojoh fxtwitter 403 (UNAVAILABLE). No new public AJ teaser. Outlook remains source of record.

DART 000660 window 18 Sep–2 Oct: 총 3건, no NEW rcpNo since Wed 30 (`20260930000861` Seo Jin-woo still newest). No Hynix in todayRSS. Shorts/program UNKNOWN (data.krx login).

funding BN OK via www.binance.com/fapi. SKHY BN 192.20 / HL 192.15 (+2.60 bp); SKHYNIX 1360.48 / SKHX 1359.4 (+7.93 bp). Next BN funding 08:00 HKT. Paper only.

Hynix KR PREOPEN → 09:00. Thu cash 000660 ₩1,833,000 (+3.21%) O/H/L 1,762k/1,833k/1,749k · vol 2.21M · For −124k / Inst +24k / Ind −500k; FO 49.77%. Official close (basic/Yahoo); integ secondary 1,828,000 not desk. SKHY Thu $193.50; prem vs Thu KRX/FX 1,358.4 ≈ +43.40%. Paper Seoul: NO (Leg A +3.21% fails).

HYROX Warsaw registration watch unchanged from prior desk card (opens 14 Oct 2026 12:00 CET / 18:00 HKT; race 7–11 Apr 2027). Morning pack did not re-verify.

HK reopen Fri without Stock Connect (to 8 Oct); HSI last 24,613; Micron catch-up watch for SMIC/Hua Hong

Thu 1 Oct HKEX closed National Day; HSI held Wed close 24,613.27 (+0.37%). Fri 2 Oct reopen 09:30–16:00 HKT with Stock Connect north/south suspended 1–7 Oct (resume 8 Oct). BBN flags Micron FQ4 chip rally catch-up risk for HK-listed semis (SMIC/Hua Hong) on thinner offshore liquidity; MiniMax/Zhipu last Wed prints 0100 HK$250.2 / 2513 HK$641 (Yahoo; no Thu session).

Implication: Hard rank-a China AI / HK tech session framing inside age-cut — first post-holiday print without southbound support; pairs with KR memory surge into Fri open.

www.bbntimes.com/financial/hong-kong-stock-exchange-closed-for-national-

KOSPI 6,971.35 (+1.95%) nears 7,000; Hynix +3.21% / Samsung +2.79%; KOSDAQ +4.48%

Thu 1 Oct: KOSPI 6,971.35 (+133.31 / +1.95%) after open −0.34%; KOSDAQ 894.29 (+38.38 / +4.48%, 5th up day). Samsung ₩276,000 (+2.79%); SK hynix ₩1,833,000 (+3.21%). SEDaily: Inst KOSPI +₩417bn; foreign −₩337bn; retail −₩1.71tn. Drivers: Micron outlook + record Sep chip exports $60.3bn (+263% YoY).

Implication: Hard Thu cash base for Fri KR open — memory led snapback after 3-day losing streak; foreign still net seller on main board.

en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/01/kospi-nears-7000-on-record-chip-export

KOSPI +1.95% ends 3-day losing streak on chip gains; won 1,358.4; foreign −₩1.43tn

Thu 1 Oct (2nd LD): KOSPI +133.31 pts / +1.95% (desk uses SEDaily/Naver print 6,971.35; Yonhap body typo 6,917.35). Samsung +2.79% to ₩276,000; SK hynix +3.21% to ~₩1.83m. Foreign −₩1.43tn; individuals −₩547bn; institutions +₩334bn. Won 15:30 1,358.4 (−5.6원).

Implication: Official wire for Thu flows/FX into Fri auction — inst supported chips while foreign kept selling.

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20261001007952320

Sept exports record $120.9bn; semiconductor exports $60.3bn (+263% YoY)

Thu 1 Oct MOTIR: Sep exports $120.9bn (+83.5% YoY); semiconductor exports $60.3bn (+263%) first-ever >$60bn month; trade surplus $49.85bn. China +123% / US +137% on chips. Jan–Sep exports already >$800bn.

Implication: Hard macro/export confirmation under the memory cycle — supports 000660/005930 earnings path into Q3 guides.

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20261001002752320

Micron: memory shortage deepens through 2028; Samsung/Hynix record OP consensus

Thu 1 Oct 14:31 KST: Micron FQ4 rev $54.23bn; >75% FY27 output committed; SCA commitments $32bn (from $22bn Jun); Mehrotra ‘much tighter’ 2027–28. FnGuide: Samsung Q3 OP consensus ₩110.3tn; SK hynix ₩78.1tn.

Implication: Core multi-year tightness narrative for MU/000660/005930 — extends Wed FQ4 print into Thu KR cash and Fri follow-through.

www.koreaherald.com/article/10890616

Micron signals longer AI bonanza for Samsung / SK hynix — 2027 HBM mostly sold

Thu 1 Oct 11:15 KST: Micron Q1 guide $61.5bn±1.5bn; Mehrotra says vast majority of 2027 HBM bit already sold at much higher prices than 2026; TrendForce HBM ASP 2027 +121% YoY cited. Early Thu KR chips mostly flat on UST yields before later rally.

Implication: Earnings-path color for Hynix desk — HBM sold-out + ASP into Q3 guides; paper only.

www.ajupress.com/view/20261001110756946

LNG carriers ×2 공사수주 ₩672.2bn (~3.8% mcap / 6.3% sales); advance yes; deliver 2029-05

2026-10-02 10:59 KST: Samsung Heavy Industries (삼성중공업, 010140, KOSPI) filed single sales/supply contract (단일판매ㆍ공급계약체결). Type: construction order (공사수주). Name: LNG carriers ×2 (LNG운반선 2척). Firm ₩672,200,000,000 (₩672.2bn / 6,722억; FX @1,359.6/$ on contract day; rounded below 억원). Recent consol. sales ₩10,650,000,000,000 → 6.3% of sales. Large-corp: yes. CP: Asian regional shipowner (아시아 지역 선주; relationship "-"). Region: Asia. Period 2026-10-02→2029-05-31 (delivery end may change with progress). Advance/deposit: yes (유); payment by construction progress (공사진척에 따른 수금). Contract date 2026-10-02. rcpNo 20261002800245 / dcmNo 11600948 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (삼성중공업 matches). Live at enrich (Naver 010140 @2026-10-02 11:07 KST OPEN): last ₩19,940 (+1.12%); high ₩19,980 (+1.32%); open ₩19,780; prev ₩19,720; vol 1,566,743; OS 880,000,000 → mcap ≈ ₩17.55tn (175,472억); face/mcap ≈ 3.8%.

Why: What: Samsung Heavy (010140) LNG carriers ×2 construction order ₩672.2bn (6.3% YE2025 consol sales / ~3.8% of ~₩17.6tn mcap); advance yes; progress-bill; deliver by 2029-05; unnamed Asian owner. Why UP: Named LNG newbuild with advance = real order-book fuel on a liquid KOSPI shipyard. Why 1-3%: Face ~3.8% of ₩17tn liquid mega; unnamed owner + multi-year progress-bill → Samsung Heavy class headline blip; refuse 3-8%. Why p≈18%: Mid-session live already +~1.2% / high +~1.3% — most of a 1-3% band printed; don’t-chase.

DART 20261002800245

TKG Solmics Pyeongtaek remodel 도급 ₩37.5bn (~140% mcap / 17.8% sales); advance yes; ~6mo

2026-10-02 10:26 KST: Shinwon Construction (신원종합개발, 017000, KOSDAQ) filed single sales/supply contract (단일판매ㆍ공급계약체결). Content: TKG Solmics expansion project (TKG솔믹스 증설 프로젝트) — remodel existing plant + reinforce production infra for semiconductor equipment-parts capacity. Firm ₩37,500,000,000 (₩37.5bn / 375억; VAT excl.). Recent individual sales ₩211,310,547,626 → 17.75% of sales. Conditional: no. CP: TKG Solmics Co., Ltd. (주식회사티케이지솔믹스; relationship "-"; semi equipment-parts maker; CP sales ₩189,985,791,761). Region: Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi. Period 2026-10-01→2027-03-31. Advance/deposit: yes (유); payment by progress rate (공정률). Mode: 도급 contract (not in-house/outsource production). Contract date 2026-10-01. Notes: amount/term may change per subcontract; VAT excl.; sales YE2025 individual. rcpNo 20261002900197 / dcmNo 11600832 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (신원종합개발 matches). Live at enrich (Naver 017000 @2026-10-02 10:27 KST OPEN): last ₩2,290 (−0.43%); high ₩2,440 (+6.09%); open ₩2,275; prev ₩2,300; vol 29,699; OS 11,668,027 → mcap ≈ ₩26.7bn (267억); face/mcap ≈ 140%.

Why: What: Shinwon Construction (017000) signed TKG Solmics Pyeongtaek factory remodel/infra 도급 ₩37.5bn (17.75% YE2025 sales / ~140% of ~₩26.7bn mcap); advance yes; pay by progress; 2026-10-01→2027-03-31; amount/term may change. Why MIXED: Construction remodel backlog with progress-bill + flex — not a cash-upfront product PO; live already faded from high. Why 3-8%: Face ≫ mcap on thin KOSDAQ + named semi CP + short 6mo + advance clears mid band (CK Solution); refuse 8%+ for progress-bill/flex; refuse Seohan 1-3% floor. Why p≈18%: High already +6.1%; live −0.4% — don’t-chase mid-session.

DART 20261002900197

UK 400kV grid cable supply+install ₩187.2bn (~4.7% mcap / 9.15% sales); no advance; end TBD

2026-10-02 07:36 KST: Iljin Electric (일진전기, 103590, KOSPI) filed single sales/supply contract (단일판매ㆍ공급계약체결). Content: product supply — 400kV transmission-grid cable supply and installation (400kV 송전망 케이블 공급 및 설치). Firm ₩187,172,249,990 (₩187.2bn / 1872억; GBP 104,088,672.00 @ GBP/KRW 1,798.20 on 2026-10-01 Hana Bank). Recent consol. sales ₩2,044,552,052,338 → 9.15% of sales. Large-corp: no. CP: J. MURPHY & SONS LIMITED (relationship "-"). Region: UK. Period start 2026-10-01; end blank. Advance/prepay: none (무); payment per supply-contract claims. Contract date 2026-10-01. Notes: full end date TBD pending owner NTP then PMI; amount/term may change; will amend when end date fixed. rcpNo 20261002800002 / dcmNo 11600599 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (일진전기 matches). Live at enrich (Naver 103590 @2026-10-02 08:09 KST PREOPEN/AH): last ₩82,900 (0.00% cash); AH/over ₩88,600 (+6.88%); OS 47,685,390 → mcap ≈ ₩3.95tn (39,531억); face/mcap ≈ 4.7%.

Why: What: Iljin Electric (103590) UK 400kV grid cable supply+install for J. Murphy & Sons — ₩187.2bn (GBP 104.1m; 9.15% YE2025 consol sales / ~4.7% of ~₩3.95tn mcap); no advance; end date TBD (NTP/PMI). Why UP: Named non-affiliate UK HV-cable award = real export demand on a grid-theme name. Why 3-8%: ~5% mcap clears mid band on ₩4tn KOSPI; refuse 8%+ for zero advance, blank end-date, amount/term flex. Why p≈15%: Pre-market already +6.9% (₩88,600) — top of 3-8% mostly printed; don’t-chase into 09:00.

DART 20261002800002

Q3 sales ₩4.77bn vs Q2 ₩41m / LY ₩168m; OP/NP blank in FD

2026-10-01 15:54 KST: Shaperon (샤페론, 378800, KOSDAQ) filed consolidated preliminary operating results FD (연결재무제표기준영업(잠정)실적). Period Q3 2026-07-01~2026-09-30. Sales ₩4,771m (₩4.771bn) vs Q2 ₩41m (+11,536.6% QoQ) and vs Q3’25 ₩168m (+2,739.9% YoY). 9M sales ₩4,878m vs ₩179m YoY (+2,625.1%). Operating profit, pretax and net income lines all blank (“-”) in the FD. rcpNo 20261001900342 / dcmNo 11599854 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (샤페론 matches). Live at enrich (Naver 378800 @2026-10-01 16:05 KST): last ₩2,535 (1.81% vs prev); mcap ≈ 234억; AH open.

Why: What: Shaperon (378800) Q3 sales ₩4.771bn vs Q2 ₩41m / LY ₩168m on ~₩23bn micro biotech; OP/NP not disclosed. Why UP: Step-change revenue vs near-zero run-rate is an earnings positive print after yesterday’s Phase-2 fail. Why 8%+: Quarterly sales ≈20% of mcap on thin KOSDAQ biotech = shock/vol class. Why p≈32%: After-close→next open leftover, but haircut for blank OP (one-time license risk) and live already +~2% AH.

DART 20261001900342

Paper Seoul rule: NO (Leg A +3.21% fails ≤−8%; Leg B prem +43.40% would pass alone). No SKHY short, no xyz perps, no live. Research/paper only. Field: /workspace/am1002/hynix.md · /workspace/hynix-2026-10-02-am.md.

Live marks refreshed 2026-10-02 07:48 HKT / 2026-10-02 08:48 KST (BN pull ~07:44; HL meta ~07:44, allMids after 429 cooldown). Research/paper only. No fills.

Pair	BN−HL (bp)	BN lastFR	HL funding/hr
BTCUSDT / BTC	−0.41	2.9000e-05	7.7245e-06
ETHUSDT / ETH	−3.62	5.4480e-05	1.2500e-05
SOLUSDT / SOL	+0.84	4.4480e-05	1.0757e-05
SKHYUSDT / xyz:SKHY	+2.60	−5.3319e-04	-2.7396e-05
SKHYNIXUSDT / xyz:SKHX	+7.93	0.0000e+00	6.2500e-06

Marks: BN SKHY 192.20 / HL 192.15; BN SKHYNIX 1360.48 / HL SKHX 1359.4. Next BN funding all five 08:00 HKT. Widest gap: SKHX +7.93 bp.

Paper only. HL funding is hourly (×8 ≠ matched BN 8h). SKHYNIX ~4h cadence. No HL SKHYNIX symbol. Carry ignores fees/borrow/liq. Caveat: HL allMids 429 once then OK; fundingHistory SOL/SKHX 429 then OK; BN via www.binance.com/fapi (direct fapi sometimes geo-blocked).

Ticker	Follow	Note
AVGO	Y	Live. Standing Y. Unchanged.
MU	Y	FQ4 printed Wed AH; NEW AJ Q4 memo Thu (teaser: thesis reinforced except one paywalled point). Already Y.
NVDA	Y	Live / HC. Standing.
MRVL	Y	Unchanged.
XPEV	Y	Standing Y.
META	Y	Standing Y.
AMD	Y	Standing Y.
LITE	Y	Standing Y. OCS PRIOR color.
ORCL	Y wait	Wait sleeve. Unchanged.
NIO	Y caution	China concentration. Unchanged.
TSLA	caution	Caution stack intact.
SPCX	watch	Watch, not a Y.
EOSE / EOS	avoid	Still avoid.
PLTR / AAPL / RIVN	N	Unchanged.
DELL	watch title	Not a Y (initiation still paywalled).

2026-10-02 07:46 HKT / 2026-10-02 08:46 KST. No brand-new Y ticker. Paper.

PREOPEN → OPEN 09:00 KST — Fri 2 Oct 2026. Attractive list EMPTY besides Hynix desk. Thu cash: KOSPI 6,971.35 (+1.95%); 000660 ₩1,833,000 (+3.21%); 005930 ₩276,000 (+2.79%). Yonhap For −₩1.43tn / Inst +₩334bn / Ind −₩547bn. Won 1,358.4. SKHY Thu $193.50; prem ≈ +43.40%. HSI last Wed 24,613.27; HK reopen Fri w/o Stock Connect. No material 000660 DART keep. data.krx missing.

DART live pack (≥Thu 1 15:40 KST): 4 keeps — Samsung Heavy Industries 010140 UP 1-3%; Shinwon Construction 017000 MIXED 3-8%; Iljin Electric 103590 UP 3-8%; Shaperon 378800 UP 8%+.

PRIOR (eve): Zephyr: ‘Very interesting — Anthropic will buy around 5GW of compute from Broadcom.’

Implication: Constructive AVGO (Y-list) AI-ASIC / custom-silicon demand + Anthropic capex path. Stacks on PRIOR Anthropic SpaceX compute and afternoon ORCL–Tencent lease. Soft for Google-TPU / Broadcom HBM pull-through into memory tape.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105607529372004492

PRIOR (eve): Jukan on Micron call: most valuable comment is 2028 supply expected even tighter than 2026 — substantial 2028 volume already contracted via LTAs; rejects Street oversupply-2028 claims; argues memory P/E should re-rate if demand locked through 2028.

Implication: Core constructive MU / 000660 / SKHY / Samsung memory multiple narrative — extends afternoon beat/guide confirmation into multi-year tightness. Soft bullish HBM ASP durability vs short-cycle fade thesis.

x.com/jukan05/status/2105544291800297587

PRIOR (eve): Jukan (w/ HBM pricing Q&A screenshot): Broadcom HBM procurement now roughly on par with NVIDIA — same price level, reversing prior NVDA-favored terms; TW sources say TPU volumes may exceed NVIDIA’s in 2027. Companion 2027 memory outlook Substack absorbed.

Implication: Constructive AVGO / GOOGL-TPU HBM pull + seller pricing power for Samsung/Hynix; soft mixed for NVDA share-of-accelerator framing into 2027. Reinforces HBM ASP / buyer-volume concentration narrative.

x.com/jukan05/status/2105581560632312312

PRIOR (eve): Zephyr ‘I wonder who the customer is 🤔😏’ + GlobeNewswire clip: Coherent (COHR) sampling 300mm high-thermal-conductivity SiC substrates to leading AI semiconductor partners (thermal management for AI/HPC).

Implication: Soft constructive COHR / advanced substrate thermal path — pairs with PRIOR Vital Optics InP / optical-CPO stack. Materials winner color, not a near KR cash print.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105582895440306527

PRIOR (aft): Jukan flags FT: Oracle signs ~$7bn deal to lease compute capacity to Tencent — largest Tencent overseas cloud lease; ~100k advanced AI chips across Oracle SEA DCs (5yr); ~30% upfront; weighed on Tencent 2Q FCF.

Implication: Constructive ORCL (Wait sleeve) AI-cloud / GPU-lease demand + China AI compute off-shore path via SEA. Soft for NVDA-supply stack into Oracle; Tencent AI catch-up color.

x.com/jukan05/status/2105498127189107048

PRIOR (aft): Jukan: Japan’s PCB export unit prices are skyrocketing — METI/Meritz chart shows monthly avg PCB ¥/m² accelerating through 2025 into mid-2026 peak above ~¥100k/m².

Implication: Constructive AI-infra PCB/CCL ASP tape (pairs with PRIOR Ming-Chi HC CCL / Shengyi NVL576). Soft for KR/JP PCB suppliers into AI server boards.

x.com/jukan05/status/2105448244973392222

PRIOR (aft): AJ on Micron print: HC earnings estimate beat Street, and Q1’27 estimate is very close to MU guidance — Street must raise substantially to catch up.

Implication: Constructive MU (Y-list) / memory process confirmation — stacks on FQ4 beat+guide; read-through constructive for 000660 / SKHY / Samsung. Evening Jukan 2028-LTA NEW extends this.

x.com/alojoh/status/2105396666551398587

PRIOR (aft): Zephyr ‘LFG!!!’ QT Micron FQ4’26: rev $54.23B / EPS $33.42 beat; Q1’27 guide rev $61.5B±1.5 / EPS $38.15±1; GM ~87%; Cloud Memory $16.3B — record FY26, stronger FY27 commentary.

Implication: Priority-handle confirmation of MU beat/guide — constructive memory/HBM demand into KR names.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105388693167255631

PRIOR (aft): Zephyr: ‘Google back at Number 3’ — DeepMind Gemini 4 Argon eval table leads many benches vs GPT-6 Astra / Claude Opus 5.5.

Implication: Soft constructive GOOGL / Gemini model-race color — AI-lab competitive tape; not a near KR cash print.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105388983329104051

PRIOR (aft): Zephyr QT AMD MI455/MI400 $28k/$20k ‘very competitive’ claim: ‘Not possible — just 432GB of HBM costs $12k–$14k.’

Implication: Tempers AMD cheap-pricing narrative vs NVDA — HBM BOM alone challenges those ASPs. Soft mixed for AMD; constructive for HBM ASP.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105304786728051173

PRIOR (eve): Jukan + TrendForce chart: DRAM/NAND contract prices — HBM blended 4Q26F +15–20% (vs 3Q26E +8–13%); conventional DRAM 4Q +10–15%; NAND 4Q +15–20%.

Implication: Constructive for 000660 / SKHY / Samsung memory — HBM ASP acceleration is core desk tape; pairs with evening 2028-LTA NEW.

x.com/jukan05/status/2105287840284438882

PRIOR (eve): Zephyr on Ming-Chi HC CCL: hydrocarbons win Dk/Df vs glass, but soft board / high CTE warpage / copper-adhesion risk; tech immature vs PTFE — questions NVDA path for Rubin Ultra.

Implication: Nuances HC-CCL UP — materials path for NVL576 still open; soft temper on CCL/PCB winners until spec locks.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2105291031189311696

PRIOR (eve): Jukan+Zephyr RT Ming-Chi: Nvidia testing glass-free hydrocarbon CCL (+HC PP) for Rubin Ultra NVL576 switch-tray PCB (2H27 MP); Shengyi lead — not final select.

Implication: Constructive AI-infra PCB/CCL into NVL576 — pairs with LITE OCS / CPO path; 2H27 timing.

x.com/mingchikuo/status/2105199423680893343

PRIOR (aft): Jukan RT: $LITE OCS setup — Street models whole co ~$9.6B rev / ~$3.4B NI FY28; his work says OCS alone can do $10B+ rev / ~$3B profit by 2028 (+$GOOGL).

Implication: Constructive LITE (Y-list) optical/OCS upside vs Street — stacks on NVDA CPO / Spectrum-X path.

x.com/X______0x/status/2105104559274340596

PRIOR (AM): Jukan flags The Information — Anthropic discloses $84.5bn SpaceX compute agreements.

Implication: Large constructive AI-compute demand signal — now reinforced by evening Zephyr Anthropic–Broadcom ~5GW NEW.

x.com/jukan05/status/2104958339520311458

PRIOR (PM): Nvidia CPO scale-out faster than expected; Spectrum-X CPO mass production; shipment path 15k→100k (4Q26→2027). Likes LITE/AVGO-path names.

Implication: Constructive NVDA optical/CPO + LITE (Y-list) — reinforced by LITE OCS PRIOR.

x.com/sssjeffpu/status/2104803715010154519

Method: api.fxtwitter.com attempted — Cloudflare blocked (HTTP 403 / challenge HTML). Cutoff for NEW: after 2026-10-01 21:46 HKT. Evening NEW demoted to PRIOR. Priority: @alojoh @citrini @zephyr_z9 @jukan05 @BowTiedBull. home_available=false.