Markets desk

last refresh 2026-11-02 08:23 HKT / 2026-11-02 09:23 KST · DART KEEP×5 live (+ Fri residual n=9) · age cut ≥ Fri 30 Oct 15:40 KST

Daily brief

Morning report — Mon 2 Nov 2026 ~07:50 HKT / 08:50 KST (research/paper)

Research/paper only. No live orders or recommendations. Age cut: news Fri 30 after-close → Mon pre-open (Fri + Sat/Sun + Mon morning colour); DART ≥ Fri 30 Oct 15:40 KST. KRX Mon PREOPEN at pack snapshot (cash open 09:00 KST / 08:00 HKT). Weekend closed Fri→Mon.

today SK hynix Fri official close ₩1,418,000 (−7.08% / −₩108,000) vs Thu ₩1,526,000. SKHY Fri RTH $149.21 (−7.95%); AH ~$149.79 (+0.39%). Yonhap FX 15:30 1,334.3; same-session prem +40.40%. Paper Seoul rule NO (−7.08 fails ≤−8 by 0.92pp; prem passes ≥+40). Flows Fri: for −300,349 / inst −131,567 / indiv +191,452; FO ~48.7%. KIND NEW Fri–Sun: none. Standing Wed Q3 20261028800036 Rev ₩104.62T / OP ₩83.33T. Mon PREOPEN carry ₩1,418,000.

watchlists US AJ: NEW rows 0. Standing Y: AVGO, MU, MRVL, NVDA (HC), XPEV, META, AMD. Wait ORCL; Caution TSLA, NIO; Watch SPCX; Avoid EOSE, EOS; N PLTR, AAPL, RIVN, SNDK. Outlook connected; Sandisk/MSFT/AMZN/Intel/Rivian Post Q3 memos = no NEW (Rivian members-locked). Nine Fri Trade alerts app-teaser only. HC Fri colour: SNDK adds @$1,288/@$1,206 KEEP N; RIVN exit @$12.54 KEEP N; NVDA/MU/MRVL already Y; LITE/AMZN off-board. Korea attractive: EMPTY.

asia news Weekend window: Korea JoongAng Fri Samsung/SK hynix dump despite record profits (KOSPI −3.48%; HBM sold-out through 2029 colour); Hynix Fri −7.08% / ADR soft; DeepSeek super-agent design (China AI); CXMT G6 ES validated Q3; Altman SK visit Samsung/Hynix colour.

X Home unavailable this morning — infer from priority. Sentiment mixed / medium (Fri US risk-off + AI-capex fear; memory sold-out structural; DeepSeek/CXMT/Altman SK visit constructive pockets). Priority: @alojoh XPeng ATH / NIO −15%; @jukan05 Intel EMIB vs CoWoS + Altman SK; @zephyr_z9 DeepSeek RT + CXMT G6; @citrini Fri rotation humour; @BowTiedBull screen tip.

DART KEEP×5 live (plus Fri residual; age cut ≥ Fri 15:40 KST): POSCO International 047050 UP 1-3% don't-chase · SNT Holdings 036530 DOWN 3-8% · SNT Motive 064960 DOWN 3-8% · SNT Dynamics 003570 DOWN 3-8% don't-chase · GC Corp 006280 MIXED 1-3% don't-chase. No new 000660 DART gap.

funding BN vs HL (~07:38 HKT; next BN 08:00 HKT): BTC −2.01 / ETH −2.07 / SOL +1.59; SKHY +30.22 bp, SKHYNIX/SKHX +37.38 bp (SKHY wider BN-rich vs Fri AM +17.1). Paper only. BN+HL direct API OK this run.

HYROX Warsaw HYROX: OPEN since Wed 14 Oct (PL saleStatus=onSale; last_pinged_id pl-page-onsale-2026-10-14). Morning check ~07:50 HKT: no new OPEN/sold-out wave. ping_needed=false — no re-ping.

US / AJ

Standing board, NEW rows 0. Outlook connected (kruusamae@live.com); Sandisk / Microsoft / Amazon / Intel / Rivian Post Q3 since Fri AM — Rivian members-locked teaser; no extractable ticker|thesis → no NEW. Hardcore readable via browser. Fri PM HC: SNDK adds @$1,288/@$1,206 → KEEP N; RIVN exit @$12.54 → KEEP N; NVDA/MU/MRVL already Y; LITE @$858 + AMZN @$224→exit @$240 off-board.

TickerFollowNote
AVGOYStanding Y. Unchanged.
MUYStanding Y. Fri HC more @$880 — sleeve stays Y. Paper only.
NVDAY (HC)Standing HC. Fri HC more @$207 — stays Y. No sleeve change.
MRVLYStanding Y. Fri HC reentered @$205 — stays Y. Paper only.
XPEVYStanding Y. @alojoh: XPeng Oct sales ATH (+20% YoY / +22% MoM) — colour, sleeve unchanged.
METAYStanding Y. Unchanged.
AMDYStanding Y. Unchanged.
ORCLWaitWait sleeve. Unchanged.
TSLACautionCaution standing. @BowTiedBull relative-strength colour only — no Avoid upgrade.
NIOCautionCaution. @alojoh: Oct sales −15% YoY — colour, sleeve unchanged.
SPCXWatchWatch standing — SpaceX bailout-vehicle colour. Paper only.
EOSEAvoidAvoid (standing with EOS).
EOSAvoidAvoid standing.
PLTRNN.
AAPLNN.
RIVNNN. Fri HC exit @$12.54 + Rivian Post Q3 members-locked — KEEP N.
SNDKNN. Fri HC more @$1,288 then @$1,206 (+ prior @$1,333). KEEP N — no auto-promote.

Paper only. AJ portal not accessed. Nine Fri Trade alerts app-teaser only (tickers via HC). LITE/AMZN/GOOG/AIXA/MSFT/INTC not invented onto board.

Korea / KRX

KRX Mon 2 Nov PREOPEN at morning snapshot (~07:30–07:50 HKT). Attractive list: EMPTY (no Markets-sourced KRX/KIND/DART promotion; 000660 on Hynix desk only; DART keeps stay on DART board).

Fri 30 official: SK hynix ₩1,418,000 (−7.08%) vs Thu ₩1,526,000; foreign −300,349 / inst −131,567 / indiv +191,452; KSF For ₩−480.1bn; FO ~48.7%. Yonhap FX 15:30 1,334.3. JoongAng: KOSPI −3.48% to 5,730.74; Samsung ₩225,000 (−3.02%); HBM sold-out colour through 2029.

Mon PREOPEN carry lastClose ₩1,418,000. DART KEEP×4 residual (HS Hyosung / Dongkuk Steel / HL Mando / Partron); no new 000660 gap. Cash open 09:00 KST / 08:00 HKT.

Asia news tape

Monday age cut: Fri 30 after-close → Mon pre-open · n=6 (a 2 / b 4 / c 0) · refreshed 2026-11-02 07:52 HKT / 2026-11-02 08:52 KST. Rank a = China AI / HK; b = SK hynix/Samsung/KOSPI/HSI/NVDA; c = other macro. Confirmed sources only — no invented Yonhap/KED/SCMP/HKET.

Session context: Mon 2 Nov morning pack (~07:50 HKT). Last KRX cash Fri 30: 000660 ₩1,418,000 (−7.08%); SKHY $149.21 RTH / AH $149.79; FX 1,334.3; prem +40.40%. KRX Mon PREOPEN at snapshot. Weekend AI-capex fear + memory sold-out structural overlap.

rank aX @zephyr_z9 RT · DeepSeek · 2026-11-01

DeepSeek super-agent design colour — China AI rank-a weekend tape

@zephyr_z9 RT DeepSeekHarness: Exploring Super-agent Design (DeepSeek WeChat/agent piece). Weekend China AI design colour into Mon Asia open — not a Seoul cash print.

Implication: a-rank China AI: constructive pocket inside Fri US risk-off / AI-capex fear tape; adjacency for HK/China AI names, not a Hynix gap.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2116860015495819362

rank aX @zephyr_z9 · CXMT · 2026-10-31

CXMT G6 engineering samples validated Q3 — China memory gap closing

@zephyr_z9: CXMT G6 ES validated in Q3 → MP within a year; G5 MP since Sep; tech gap vs KR memory closing faster. Competitive China DRAM colour into Mon.

Implication: a-rank China memory: medium-term competitive pressure narrative vs Samsung/Hynix ASP/share — not a same-open Seoul gap.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2116398506340659698

rank bKorea JoongAng Daily · 2026-11-01

Samsung / SK hynix fell Fri despite record profits — AI-spend fears rattle KOSPI

Korea JoongAng Daily 1 Nov: Samsung closed ₩225,000 (−3.02%); SK hynix ₩1,418,000 (−7.08%); KOSPI −3.48% to 5,730.74. Record-profit prints failed to shield names as Big Tech AI-spend fears hit; HBM sold-out colour through 2029 noted alongside Alphabet −12.6% Thu / Intel −28.6% US colour.

Implication: b-rank: Fri Seoul memory dump + AI-capex fear is the weekend headline into Mon PREOPEN — structural HBM sold-out still constructive underneath the session print.

koreajoongangdaily.com … /12948729

rank bYahoo / KSF / Naver · 000660 · 2026-10-30 close

SK hynix Fri close ₩1,418,000 (−7.08%) — foreign −300k sh / ₩−480bn

Official Fri O/H/L/C ₩1,444,000 / 1,449,000 / 1,381,000 / 1,418,000 (−₩108,000 / −7.08% vs Thu ₩1,526,000). Vol 3.86M. Flows: For −300,349 / Inst −131,567 / Ind +191,452; KSF For ₩−480.1bn; FO ~48.7%. Naver quirk C ₩1,391,000 not used. Mon PREOPEN carry ₩1,418,000.

Implication: b-rank: sharp Fri foreign/inst supply after Thu digest; paper Seoul rule NO (misses −8% by 0.92pp).

finance.yahoo.com/quote/000660.KS/history/

rank bYahoo SKHY / Yonhap FX · 2026-10-30

SKHY Fri $149.21 (−7.95%); prem +40.40% — ADR tracks Seoul dump

SKHY Fri RTH $149.21 (−7.95%) (O/H/L 150.52 / 153.49 / 145.34); AH ~$149.79 (+0.39%). Yonhap FX 15:30 1,334.3 (DN 2.5 from Thu 1,336.8). Same-session prem +40.40% (passes ≥+40; prior Thu +41.99%).

Implication: b-rank ADR: RTH mirrored Seoul −7%; AH stabilized; prem still elevated into Mon Asia.

finance.yahoo.com/quote/SKHY/

rank bX @jukan05 · Altman SK visit · 2026-10-31

Altman top-secret SK visit — Samsung execs; local media also SK hynix

@jukan05 Sat: Altman visit to SK met Samsung top execs; local media says also SK hynix. Same timing colour as last year's RAM surge start. Weekend constructive adjacency for KR memory sleeve into Mon.

Implication: b-rank: demand/allocation colour for Samsung/Hynix — constructive pocket vs Fri AI-spend fear dump; not a filing.

x.com/jukan05/status/2116434574993666327

Gaps: Finance MCP / Markets promotion absent → Korea attractive EMPTY. AJ Rivian Post Q3 members-locked (portal not accessed). Nine Fri Trade alerts app-teaser only. KIND shorts/program/block UNKNOWN (data.krx wall). No fresh Yonhap/KED/SCMP/HKET Mon headlines fetched — fewer items OK. Home X unavailable this morning.

X tape

mixedconfidence medium · Fri US risk-off + weekend AI-capex fear · memory sold-out structural · DeepSeek/CXMT/Altman SK constructive pockets · Home unavailable · hardcore browser-readable

Priority: @alojoh, @citrini, @zephyr_z9, @jukan05, @BowTiedBull. Skip culture-war / lifestyle / Halloween. Refreshed 2026-11-02 07:52 HKT. Sources: priority_mon_am.json + digests; Home Following not scraped — sentiment inferred from priority.

X priority posts

2026-11-02 07:52 HKT / 2026-11-02 08:52 KST · Weekend → Mon AM priority (since Fri eve ~13:50 HKT cutoff). Sentiment mixed / medium. Home unavailable.

up@alojoh · Sun 21:24 HKT · conf high

Xpeng reports all-time best sales month. Vehicle sales increased in October 20% YoY and 22% MoM.

Why: Supports standing XPEV Y sleeve — colour only, no NEW row / no upgrade.

x.com/alojoh/status/2116884043039903751

down@alojoh · Sun 21:48 HKT · conf high

NIO’s October vehicle sales declined 15% year over year.

Why: Reinforces NIO Caution sleeve — colour only, no Avoid upgrade overnight.

x.com/alojoh/status/2116890140995985523

mixed@alojoh · Sun 16:24 HKT · conf medium

Rivian Q3 OL forecast within 10%: projected −$791m vs actual −$881m (18mo-old model).

Why: Estimate-quality colour on RIVN N sleeve; paired with Fri HC exit @$12.54 — KEEP N.

x.com/alojoh/status/2116808705530302577

down@jukan05 · Sun 17:44 HKT · conf high

Taiwanese media: Intel EMIB overall yield ~60–65%; silicon-bridge into ABF only ~25–30% vs TSMC CoWoS ~98%.

Why: Packaging yield gap vs CoWoS — idiosyncratic INTC/advanced-packaging DOWN colour; not a memory-beta break.

x.com/jukan05/status/2116828613777699280

up@jukan05 · Sat 09:38 HKT · conf high

Altman top-secret visit to SK: met Samsung top execs; local media says also SK hynix. Same timing as last year's RAM surge start.

Why: Demand/allocation colour for Samsung/Hynix into Mon — constructive pocket vs Fri AI-spend fear dump.

x.com/jukan05/status/2116434574993666327

mixed@jukan05 · Sat 10:09 HKT · conf medium

The Elec Terafab follow-up: ACM Research looking to supply PLP gear to Terafab despite 99% China revenue.

Why: Advanced packaging / PLP equipment colour — MIXED China-revenue optics; adjacency only.

x.com/jukan05/status/2116351827772051897

mixed@jukan05 · Sun 09:42 HKT · conf medium

Why did Anthropic pay SpaceX such a hefty premium while renegotiating prices with other cloud providers?

Why: Cloud/AI infra premium colour — MIXED for SPCX Watch sleeve; paper only.

x.com/jukan05/status/2116707485801381938

mixed@zephyr_z9 · Sun 19:48 HKT · conf high

RT DeepSeekHarness: Exploring Super-agent Design (DeepSeek WeChat/agent piece).

Why: China AI design colour (rank-a) — constructive pocket inside risk-off session narrative.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2116860015495819362

mixed@zephyr_z9 · Sat 13:14 HKT · conf high

CXMT G6 engineering samples validated Q3 → MP within a year; G5 MP since Sep; tech gap closing faster.

Why: China memory competitive colour vs KR — medium-term share/ASP pressure narrative, not same-open Seoul gap.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2116398506340659698

mixed@zephyr_z9 · Sat 01:54 HKT · conf medium

Customers want P-cores; Intel converting 18A capacity to Intel 3 to expand Granite Rapids.

Why: Intel process-mix colour after Fri dump — idiosyncratic, not memory-beta.

x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2116227300404686925

down@citrini · Sat 01:10 HKT · conf medium

Textbook rotation out of names you own into names you don’t — Fri US risk-off humour.

Why: Session risk-off humour stamp — overlays memory structural UP; not a Seoul beta flip.

x.com/citrini/status/2116216074878259615

down@citrini · Sat 00:42 HKT · conf medium

hearing rumors of an up blowing pod

Why: Fri risk-off humour — same session pocket as rotation post.

x.com/citrini/status/2116209197364744594

mixed@BowTiedBull · Fri 23:26 HKT · conf medium

Today good day to screen: green/not-down-much on zero news = great sign; down with market = no read.

Why: Light process tip into Fri risk-off — colour only.

x.com/BowTiedBull/status/2116190064082551286

up@BowTiedBull · Sat 02:02 HKT · conf medium

Tesla crushing on relative basis since summer.

Why: Relative-strength colour on TSLA Caution sleeve — no Avoid upgrade.

x.com/BowTiedBull/status/2116229167989874794

Home unavailable this morning. Hardcore browser-readable (Fri HC alerts already on US board colour). Skipped: @alojoh X-scam; @jukan Halloween/Shanghai food; BowTied lifestyle; culture-war.

DART material

last scan 2026-11-02 09:23 KST · KEEP×5 new this fire · Mon morning pack · age cut ≥ Fri 30 Oct 15:40 KST · board n=9 · POSCO International 047050 UP 1-3% don't-chase · SNT Holdings 036530 DOWN 3-8% · SNT Motive 064960 DOWN 3-8% · SNT Dynamics 003570 DOWN 3-8% don't-chase · GC Corp 006280 MIXED 1-3% don't-chase · + Fri residual HS Hyosung / Dongkuk Steel / HL Mando / Partron

up 1-3% don't-chasePOSCO International 047050 · KOSPI · 2026-11-02 09:18 KST · p≈12%

Q3 consol OP ₩400.7bn (+24% YoY); NI ₩401.8bn (+92% YoY)

Live-session Q3 print on a liquid ~₩8.8tn trader: YoY OP +24% and NI nearly doubled, but sequential sales/OP both eased ~6%. UP on the YoY earnings reset. Band 1–3%: mega-cap compression refuses mid-band even with the NI jump. Live already +3.2% sits at the top of the band → leftover don’t-chase, p≈12%.

Why direction: UP: consol OP +24% YoY and NI +92% YoY is a clean year-on-year beat despite a soft QoQ fade. · Why magnitude: 1-3%: ~₩8.8tn liquid mega-cap — framework compresses even solid YoY beats; refuse 3–8%. · Why probability: p≈12%: live already +3.2% has printed the small band minutes after the 09:18 stamp → don’t-chase residual only.

DART 20261102800220

down 3-8%SNT Holdings 036530 · KOSPI · 2026-11-02 09:11 KST · p≈48%

Q3 consol OP ₩45.1bn (−32% YoY); NI ₩12.7bn (−80% YoY)

Holdco earnings collapsed: OP −32% YoY and pretax/NI roughly −80% YoY with a matching sequential cliff — the miss runs through operating profit into a large non-operating hole. DOWN. Band 3–8%: YoY NI delta ~₩51bn is ~7.5% of ~₩679bn mcap, enough for mid-band on a mid-cap; refuse 8%+ because OP is still black. Live ~−0.2% leaves most of the band free → p≈48%.

Why direction: DOWN: OP −32% YoY plus pretax/NI −80% YoY is a clear earnings break, not a soft guide miss. · Why magnitude: 3-8%: NI hole ~₩51bn ≈7.5% of mcap clears mid-band; still-profitable OP refuses 8%+. · Why probability: p≈48%: stamp ~09:11 with live still near flat → unused mid-band into the morning session.

DART 20261102800213

down 3-8%SNT Motive 064960 · KOSPI · 2026-11-02 09:07 KST · p≈45%

Q3 pretax ₩3.94bn (−86% YoY) despite OP only −3% YoY

Auto-parts name where OP only slipped −3% YoY but pretax and NI cratered ~−85% — earnings quality broke below the operating line (DL E&C-class hole). DOWN. Band 3–8%: NI delta ~₩18bn is ~3.2% of ~₩564bn mcap plus a quality break clears mid; refuse 8%+ because OP itself is not the shock. Live ~−0.2% → most of the band unused, p≈45%.

Why direction: DOWN: pretax/NI −85% YoY with only a mild OP dip means a large non-operating hit hit equity value. · Why magnitude: 3-8%: NI hole ~3% of mcap + quality break = mid-band; OP still near flat refuses 8%+. · Why probability: p≈45%: live still flat minutes after the 09:07 stamp → unused tape into the morning.

DART 20261102800199

down 3-8% don't-chaseSNT Dynamics 003570 · KOSPI · 2026-11-02 09:01 KST · p≈18%

Q3 consol OP ₩6.07bn (−70% YoY / −65% QoQ)

Defense/machinery name with OP collapsed ~70% YoY and ~65% QoQ on softer sales — a clean operating miss, not a one-line quirk. DOWN. Band 3–8%: YoY OP delta ~₩13.8bn is ~2.2% of ~₩623bn mcap but the −70% rate shock still clears mid-band; refuse 8%+. Live already +2.2% against the miss → leftover is fade/digest only, p≈18% don’t-fight.

Why direction: DOWN: OP −70% YoY / −65% QoQ is a clear operating earnings break. · Why magnitude: 3-8%: sharp % OP collapse on a ~₩0.6tn name clears mid; absolute OP delta ~2% of mcap refuses 8%+. · Why probability: p≈18%: live already +2.2% opposite the call — leftover is fade residual, not unused DOWN alpha.

DART 20261102800197

mixed 1-3% don't-chaseGC Corp 006280 · KOSPI · 2026-11-02 09:01 KST · p≈14%

Q3 OP ₩49.2bn (+68.5% YoY) but sales −14% YoY; pretax ₩274bn one-off-heavy

Biopharma print is two-way: OP +68.5% YoY on sales still −14% YoY, while pretax ₩274bn is ~5.6× OP — the NI boom is one-off/non-op heavy, not a clean operating re-rating. MIXED. Band 1–3%: liquid ~₩1.55tn plus below-OP noise; refuse mid/shock. Live already +2.1% inside the small band → leftover don’t-chase, p≈14%.

Why direction: MIXED: OP beat fights shrinking YoY sales, and pretax/NI surge is far above OP so quality is two-way. · Why magnitude: 1-3%: ~₩1.55tn liquid name + one-off-looking pretax boom — compress to small band. · Why probability: p≈14%: live +2.1% has already used most of a 1–3% band → don’t-chase residual.

DART 20261102800193

up 8%+HS Hyosung 487570 · KOSPI · 2026-10-30 15:43 KST · p≈58%

Q3 consol OP ₩38.1bn (+159% YoY); sales ₩467.4bn (+28.7% YoY)

After-close Friday Q3 print: OP more than doubled YoY to ₩38.1bn on a ~₩174bn mcap name — the absolute OP level alone is ~22% of mcap, so the beat is equity-reset size into Monday’s open, not a soft guidance nudge. UP. Band 8%+: YoY OP delta ~₩23.4bn is ~13% of mcap and clears shock-class on a thin KOSPI holdco; refuse pricing the full OP/mcap ratio as a same-open must-print. Live only +1.7% into the stamp → most of the band is still Monday leftover, p≈58%.

Why direction: UP: consol OP +159% YoY / NI +356% YoY is a clean earnings reset on a small-cap holdco. · Why magnitude: 8%+: YoY OP delta ~₩23bn is ~13% of ~₩174bn mcap — clears shock band; liquidity is thin so gap risk is real. · Why probability: p≈58%: after-close Friday into Mon open, live only +1.7% so leftover is unused tape, not mid-session chase.

DART 20261030800806

down 3-8%Dongkuk Steel 084010 · KOSPI · 2026-10-30 15:42 KST · p≈36%

Q3 consol OP loss-turn −₩1.42bn (vs +₩8.0bn YoY / +₩16.3bn QoQ)

Sales still grew YoY but OP flipped to a −₩1.42bn loss against a +₩8bn year-ago and +₩16bn prior-quarter print — a clear margin break into the red. DOWN. Band 3–8%: loss-turn on a ~₩290bn steel name clears mid-band narrative, but the absolute OP hole is <1% of mcap so refuse 8%+. Live already +2.9% against the miss → Monday leftover is a fade/digest bet, not confirmed tape, p≈36%.

Why direction: DOWN: OP/pretax/NI all loss-turn vs still-profitable YoY and QoQ comps — margin break, not just soft growth. · Why magnitude: 3-8%: loss-turn is mid-band on a liquid midcap steel, but absolute OP hole ~₩1.4bn is tiny vs ~₩290bn mcap — refuse 8%+. · Why probability: p≈36%: live +2.9% votes against the print into the close, so Mon open is contested fade residual.

DART 20261030800834

down 3-8% don't-chaseHL Mando 204320 · KOSPI · 2026-10-30 15:42 KST · p≈22%

Q3 consol OP ₩51.5bn (−45% YoY/−52% QoQ); pretax/NI loss-turn (−₩41.2bn/−₩42.5bn)

Top line flat but OP halved YoY and pretax/NI flipped to ~₩42bn losses — earnings-quality break below OP on a large auto-parts name. DOWN. Band 3–8%: NI hole ~₩42bn is ~2.4% of ~₩1.74tn mcap so refuse 8%+, but loss-turn on liquid KOSPI auto still clears mid-band. Live already −3.8% has taken a chunk of that band into the close → Monday leftover don’t-chase, p≈22%.

Why direction: DOWN: OP −45% YoY plus pretax/NI loss-turn vs profitable comps is a real earnings miss, not a mix shift. · Why magnitude: 3-8%: loss-turn on ~₩1.7tn mcap auto-parts clears mid-band; absolute NI hole ~2.4% of mcap refuses 8%+. · Why probability: p≈22%: live −3.8% already sits inside the band after the after-close stamp → leftover is fade/Mon residual.

DART 20261030800817

down 3-8% don't-chasePartron 091700 · KOSDAQ · 2026-10-30 15:40 KST · p≈24%

Q3 consol OP ₩5.6bn (−66% YoY); NI loss-turn −₩4.5bn

Components name with OP collapsed −66% YoY and NI flipped to a −₩4.5bn loss despite a mild QoQ OP bounce — the YoY earnings break dominates. DOWN. Band 3–8%: NI hole ~₩4.5bn is ~1.9% of ~₩234bn mcap (refuse 8%+), but a two-thirds OP cut on a liquid KOSDAQ name still clears mid-band. Live already −4.0% → Monday leftover don’t-chase, p≈24%.

Why direction: DOWN: OP −66% YoY and NI loss-turn vs a still-profitable year-ago quarter is a clear earnings miss. · Why magnitude: 3-8%: YoY OP collapse on ~₩234bn mcap clears mid-band; absolute NI hole <2% of mcap refuses 8%+. · Why probability: p≈24%: live −4% already inside the band into the close → Mon leftover is residual, not unused alpha.

DART 20261030900818

BN vs HL (Korea pair)

Live marks pulled ~07:38 HKT Mon (BN Shell premiumIndex+fundingRate; HL metaAndAssetCtxs+fundingHistory main+xyz — direct API OK this run). Research series, paper only. Next BN funding at snap was 08:00 HKT (~22m).

PairBN−HL (bp)BN lastFRHL funding/hrBN mark−index (bp)HL mark−oracle (bp)
BTCUSDT / BTC−2.011.000e-041.250e-05−1.05−2.81
ETHUSDT / ETH−2.071.181e-051.250e-05−4.49−4.18
SOLUSDT / SOL+1.591.000e-04−8.046e-07−1.30−5.30
SKHYUSDT / xyz:SKHY+30.22−7.257e-04−5.110e-04+11.21+0.00
SKHYNIXUSDT / xyz:SKHX+37.38−8.177e-04−7.463e-04+16.12−17.34

Marks: BN/HL BTC 78189 / 78205; ETH 2270.2 / 2270.7; SOL 94.28 / 94.27; SKHY 150.16 / 149.71; SKHYNIX 1040.3 / SKHX 1036.4. SKHY/SKHX BN−HL +30.2 / +37.4 bp — SKHY wider BN-rich vs Fri AM (+17.1 / +35.3); SKHYNIX ~flat/slightly wider. Majors near flat.

Next funding: Binance 8h cycle; Hyperliquid hourly. No HL SKHYNIX — hedge is xyz:SKHX. HL SKHX under oracle (−17.3 bp). BN Hynix lastFR deeply negative (SKHY −7.26e-04 / SKHYNIX −8.18e-04); HL xyz funding/hr also negative.

Estimated carry (per 8h at live |BN−HL| spread proxy): BTC ≈ 2.01 bp · ETH ≈ 2.07 · SOL ≈ 1.59 · SKHY ≈ 30.22 · SKHYNIX ≈ 37.38. Snapshot only — fees/inventory/liquidation can erase it. Paper only; no live orders.

SK Hynix map

Korea line

000660 / SKHYNIX / xyz:SKHX

Fri 30 Oct official close ₩1,418,000 (−108,000 / −7.08%) vs Thu ₩1,526,000. O/H/L ₩1,444,000 / 1,449,000 / 1,381,000; vol 3.86M. Naver quirk C ₩1,391,000 not used. Mon PREOPEN lastClose carry ₩1,418,000. Flows Fri: For −300,349 / Inst −131,567 / Ind +191,452; KSF For ₩−480.1bn; FO ~48.7%. KIND NEW Fri–Sun: none. Standing Wed Q3 20261028800036: Rev ₩104.62T / OP ₩83.33T (OPM ~80%).

ADR / FX / premium

SKHY / xyz:SKHY

SKHY Fri RTH $149.21 (−7.95%); AH ~$149.79 (+0.39%). Yonhap FX Fri 15:30 1,334.3. Same-session premium Fri +40.40% (149.21 × 10 × 1,334.3 / 1,418,000 − 1). Thu prem was +41.99%.

Perps vs cash (~07:38 HKT): BN SKHYUSDT ~$150.16 (tracks Fri AH); SKHYNIX ~$1,040 vs Fri KRX-USD ~$1,063 (~−2%). BN−HL funding spreads +30.2 / +37.4 bp. HL SKHX mark−oracle −17.3 bp.

Paper Seoul rule: NO. Leg A Fri −7.08% fails (needs ≤ −8%; miss 0.92pp); Leg B prem +40.40% passes (needs ≥ +40%). Research flag only — paper only; no SKHY short / no xyz perps / no live.

Context: Fri dump after Thu digest; JoongAng AI-spend fear headline; Altman SK visit constructive pocket; no new Hynix HC; no new 000660 gap DART. Related perps: BN SKHYUSDT / SKHYNIXUSDT; HL xyz:SKHY / xyz:SKHX only. KIND shorts/program/block UNKNOWN (data.krx wall). Paper only.