Markets desk

Wed 23 Sep 2026 ~07:52 HKT — morning report

Research/paper only. No live. Age-cut: Tue–Fri; news Tue+Wed only; DART from Tue 2026-09-22 15:40 KST. Session: KR PREOPEN (cash 09:00 KST) · HK OPEN · US Tue RTH done.

watchlists Korea attractive EMPTY (besides Hynix desk; age-window DART = Hyundai E&C + Xplus only). AJ: NEW overnight — XPEV humanoids reinforce standing Y; MU +23% since Jul call = confirmation. Standing Y unchanged (AVGO/MU/MRVL/NVDA/XPEV/META/AMD/LITE); ORCL wait; TSLA caution↑↑; SPCX watch; EOSE avoid; NIO caution; EOS avoid; DELL watch title; INTC color (HBM base-die PRIOR, not AJ Y).

funding BN fapi GEO-BLOCKED. HL xyz:SKHX mark ~1,409.6 / fund ~+0.6 bp; xyz:SKHY ~196.11 / fund -0.23 bp. BN↔HL spread N/A. Seoul paper rule NO (Tue cash −1.50%, need ≤−8%; ADR prem ~+44.2% does not alone clear). No fills/recs.

Hynix Tue cash 000660 ₩1,840,000 (−28k / −1.50% vs Mon wire ₩1,868,000) · For −217,556 Inst −159,679 Ind −217,329 · foreign own 50.15% (Naver dealTrend 20260922; deal close ₩1,841,000). Samsung Tue ₩276,500 (+0.91%). KOSPI Tue 7,017.91 (+0.15%) after intrad 7,171.44. SKHY Tue RTH $195.37 · FX Yonhap Tue 15:30 1,358.2 · parity ~$135.5 · ADR prem ~+44.2%. KIND/DART: no 000660 keep. Tape: eSSD/Q4 CSP orders (BK/TrendForce); Alibaba Zhenwu/Qwen Apsara; JPM 16Hi HBM ≥2029 (Jukan). Paper Seoul NO.

news n=6 in age window (Tue+Wed; Mon dropped) — KOSPI fade after early +2%; Alibaba Apsara 5–10T + Zhenwu V900; eSSD Q4>Q3; HK AI Z.AI 742 / MiniMax 286; Ant agentic commerce.

X Home unavailable. Sentiment mixed / medium. n_new=4 since eve 22:15 HKT — Jukan JPM 16Hi≥2029; Citrini Agentic Reality; AJ XPEV humanoids + MU confirmation. Eve Samsung HBM4 / glass / Intel HBM5 demoted PRIOR.

DART Age-window keeps: Hyundai E&C 000720 up 1-3% / p≈40% (₩882.8bn Gamcheon Zone-2 @08:26 — gap-today into auction); Xplus 373200 mixed 8%+ / p≈40% (₩14.0bn Series-7 CB refinance @15:51 Tue; overnight/Wed open product). No 000660.

HYROX Warsaw still closed (“TICKET SALES START SOON!” / Get notified); Outlook OK — no Warsaw reg-open mail. No ping.

₩882.8bn Gamcheon Zone-2 housing redevelopment win (2.84% of sales / ~6.0% of mcap; no advance; 49 months)

2026-09-23 08:26 KST: Hyundai Engineering & Construction (현대건설, 000720, KOSPI) filed a single sales/supply construction-award contract. Contract name: Gamcheon Zone 2 housing redevelopment project (감천2구역 주택재개발정비사업). Counterparty: Gamcheon Zone 2 Housing Redevelopment Association (감천2구역 주택재개발정비사업조합); no affiliate flag. Location: Busan Saha-gu Gamcheon-dong 94-1 area — underground 7 / above-ground 33 floors, 21 buildings plus ancillary facilities. Contract amount (HDEC 100%, VAT excluded): ₩882,824,000,000 (=₩882.8bn / 8,828.24억). Latest sales (2025 YE consolidated): ₩31,062,912,168,499 → sales ratio 2.84% (large-corporation filer). Down payment / advance: none. Payment: billed and paid as construction progresses. Contract (award) date: 2026-09-22. Duration: 49 months after actual start (demolition period excluded); amount/period may change under the construction contract. rcpNo 20260923800033 / dcmNo 11589515 confirmed on DART HTML viewer (company name matches). Live at enrich (Yahoo 000720.KS pre-open ref): ₩131,300; shares outstanding 111,355,765; mcap ≈ ₩14.62tn; face/mcap ≈ 6.0%.

What: Pre-open, Hyundai E&C booked a signed ₩882.8bn Busan Gamcheon Zone-2 housing redevelopment EPC win (100% HDEC share) with zero advance and ~49 months of progress-bill cash after start. Why up: this is a signed construction award that adds housing backlog against a non-affiliate redevelopment association — real work, not a preferred-bidder tease or related-party restatement. Why 1-3% (not 3-8%/8%+): face is only 2.84% of ₩31.1tn sales and ~6% of the ~₩14.6tn mcap; with no advance and multi-year progress billing on a liquid mega-cap builder, near-term cash does not match the headline (Samsung E&A / HS Hwaseong progress-bill class — refuse the face trap). Why p≈40%: stamp is 08:26 KST (~34 min into the 09:00 auction), so leftover is the pre-open window; liquid KOSPI construction often pays only a ~1% headline tax then fades, so this is not a high-confidence hold-to-close 1–3%.

DART

₩14.0bn Series-7 private CB refinance (cv ₩1,855 / 30.1% shares; refix to ₩1,299) offsets full Series-5 CB cancel; after-close

2026-09-22 15:51 KST: Xplus Inc. (엑스플러스, 373200, KOSDAQ) filed a paired major-matter set. (A) rcpNo 20260922000356 / dcmNo 11588817 — Series 7 nameless interest-bearing unguaranteed private convertible bond issue. Face: ₩14,000,000,000 (=₩14.0bn / 140억). Purpose: debt repayment ₩14.0bn (no facility/working-capital line). Coupon 2.0% surface / 7.0% maturity; maturity 2029-09-30; private; pay-in 2026-09-30 (method: other/offset). Conversion: 100% @ ₩1,855/sh → 7,547,169 common = 30.14% of shares outstanding (25,043,237). Conversion window 2027-09-30 to 2029-08-30. Refix every 5 months down to 70% floor ₩1,299. Put from 2027-09-30 quarterly (compound 7%); issuer call with YTC 8% sleeve. Allottees: Sangsangin Savings Bank ₩7.0bn + Sangsangin Plus Savings Bank ₩7.0bn (same lenders as Series 5). (B) companion rcpNo 20260922000342 / dcmNo 11588821 — early acquisition of entire Series 5 private CB (issued 2025-04-10, maturity 2028-04-10, face ₩14.0bn) for ₩14.0bn principal, settled by offset against Series-7 pay-in on 2026-09-30, then KSD cancel. Series 5 conversion was ₩3,390 / 4,129,793 sh = 16.49% of shares. Both rcpNos confirmed on DART HTML viewer (company name matches). Live at enrich (Yahoo 373200.KQ session close): ₩1,696 (prev close ₩1,750, −3.09%); recent daily vol ~19k–44k shares; shares 25,043,237; mcap ₩424.7억 (~₩42.5bn); face/mcap ≈ 33.0%; new cv is ~9.4% OTM vs ₩1,696 (old cv ~100% OTM).

What: After the cash close, Xplus rolled its entire ₩14.0bn Series-5 CB into a new ₩14.0bn Series-7 private CB with the same Sangsangin lenders via a cashless offset on 30 Sep — retiring the old 16.5%-of-shares overhang at ₩3,390 and replacing it with a 30.1%-of-shares overhang at ₩1,855 (refixable to ₩1,299). Why mixed: maturity is extended and no cash leaves the company today, but equity dilution capacity nearly doubles and the strike moves from deep-OTM to near-spot with a 70% refix ratchet — classic refinance-into-worse-terms, not a clean de-lever. Why 8%+: face is ~33% of the ₩42.5bn mcap and potential share count is 30% on a micro-ADV KOSDAQ name; after-close stamps of this size can gap hard at the Wed auction even though conversion is locked until Sep 2027. Why p≈40%: leftover is the overnight/Wed open product (15:51 KST is after the 15:30 cash close); thin ADV can print an 8%+ whip then fade, so this is not a high-confidence hold-to-close band.

DART · companion (Series-5 cancel)

KOSPI +0.15% to 7,017.91 after early +2% fade; Samsung +0.91%, SK hynix −1.5%

Tue 22 Sep: KOSPI closed 7,017.91 (+10.19 / +0.15%) after intrad high 7,171.44. Samsung Electronics +0.91% to ₩276,500; SK hynix −1.5% to ₩1.84m. Individuals −₩1.6tn / institutions −₩121.8bn / foreigners +₩76.2bn. Won 1,358.2/USD at 15:30 (+7.2 from prior close). Meta Muse #1 App Store cited for AI-agent CPU/server sentiment.

Wed PREOPEN base after Tue fade — Hynix underperformed Samsung; do not invent Wed gap from Yahoo prev-close.

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KOSPI gives back early 2% surge, holds just above 7,017; won to 1,358.2

Tue 22 Sep BK close tape: KOSPI opened 7,161.61 (+2.20%), high 7,171.44, closed 7,017.91 (+0.15%). KOSDAQ 834.38 (−0.23%). Won/USD closed 1,358.2. Foreign/institution selling restricted upside after early AI/tech bounce.

Confirms Yonhap fade tape into Wed open — supply/demand heavy at highs; Chuseok-adjacent caution.

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Alibaba Apsara: teases 5–10T-param Qwen roadmap + Zhenwu V900 ‘China’s most powerful’ AI chip

Tue 22 Sep Apsara (Hangzhou): Alibaba teased Qwen models scaling toward 5–10 trillion parameters; unveiled T-Head Zhenwu V900 (claimed 3× prior M890; mass production targeted Q1 2027). Cloud DC capacity aim >20 GW by 2032.

Hard China AI/full-stack color for BABA/9988 + domestic ASIC narrative; competitive overlay vs NVDA China, soft for HK AI complex.

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AI investment drives soaring eSSD demand; Q4 orders may top strong Q3 — Samsung/SK hynix expand lineups

Tue 22 Sep BK: TrendForce — CSP eSSD demand forecasts revised up; Q4 order volumes may exceed elevated Q3. JPMorgan cited: eSSD could be 48% of NAND bit demand by 2027. Samsung shipping PCIe 6.0 PM1763 for Nvidia Vera Rubin; SK hynix pushing PEB210 / PS1110 / 122TB QLC PS1101.

Hard constructive NAND/eSSD ASP + mix for 000660/005930 Solidigm sleeve — joins prior NAND ASP raise tape.

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HK AI Tue: Z.AI 742 (−6.6% vs Mon 794); MiniMax 286.4 (−3.9% vs Mon 298); HSI ~25,088

Tue 22 Sep Yahoo: 2513.HK Z.AI closed 742 (Mon 794); 0100.HK MiniMax 286.4 (Mon 298). HSI Yahoo live ~25,087.75 (Mon close 25,042.71; Tue bar close not finalized in chart pull).

HK AI cools after Mon strength into Apsara week — mixed China AI beta vs Alibaba product drop.

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Ant Group consolidates Alipay ops in big bet on AI ‘agentic commerce’

Tue 22 Sep SCMP: Ant Group consolidating Alipay operations as a push into AI agentic commerce (same-day Apsara complex).

Soft constructive China agent/payments AI narrative — joins Muse/agent demand tape; not a KR memory print.

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Day’s best PAPER arb

PAPER: Seoul rule NO (Tue cash −1.50%, need ≤−8%; ADR prem ~44.2% rich alone does not clear). BN↔HL mark spread N/A (Binance geo-blocked). Watch HL SKHX fund ~+0.6 bp vs SKHY -0.23 bp — research only. Secondary: ADR ~+44.2% still rich to parity after Tue KR fade + US SKHY rip = multi-day premium research. eSSD/NAND constructive vs Samsung HBM-share + 16Hi delay = mixed Hynix beta. CSOPSKHYNIX2L is 2× HK ETF — not the stock. Paper only. No live.

Charts refreshed 23 Sep 2026 08:06 HKT / 23 Sep 2026 09:06 KST (rolling 7d BN↔HL). SKHYNIX↔SKHX mark ~+21.5 bp · SKHY↔SKHY mark ~+14.7 bp · ADR/KRX prem ~+38.88% Research/paper only.

Charts on disk are prior rolling 7d (not re-pulled this fire). Live HL marks 2026-09-23 07:52 HKT / 2026-09-23 08:52 KST. Research/paper only.

BN fapi GEO-BLOCKED from this box (Binance Eligibility / restricted location) — cannot refresh BN premiumIndex / fundingRate. HL xyz dex OK.

xyz:SKHX mark ~1,409.6 / fund ~+0.6 bp / prevDay 1390.8 · xyz:SKHY mark ~196.11 / fund -0.23 bp / prevDay 190.71. BN↔HL spread N/A. ADR/KRX prem Tue ~+44.2%.

Bottom strip is ADR vs KRX cash premium (SKHY×10×USDKRW/000660−1), not the old backtest equity curve. Paper.

Seoul paper rule NO (Tue cash −1.50%, not ≤−8%). Excluded CSOPSKHYNIX2LUSDT. Paper only.

Ticker	Follow	Note
AVGO	Y	Live. Standing. No new overnight AJ idea beyond existing book.
NIO	Y caution	China concentration. Unchanged.
EOS	Y avoid	Separate from EOSE.
NVDA	Y	Still live. Tue RTH $228.87 (Mon $227.38). Glass/CoPoS PRIOR + Muse hardware = already_in_Y overlay. Not a new add.
MRVL	Y	Follow-up Y. Unchanged.
MU	Y	Cheapest PEG (22 Aug AJ). Overnight AJ: +23% since Jul $885 call — confirmation, not a new memo. NAND/eSSD tape supportive.
XPEV	Y	AJ $12.20 / IRON. Overnight: “cheapest humanoids play” — reinforces standing Y.
META	booked	Tactical. Muse/WhatsApp hardware scarcity = color only.
AMD	Y	Y confirmation: AJ buy flag $453 (2 Sep). $1tn print = momentum color, not a new memo.
LITE	Y	Standing NEW Y (17 Sep). Optical/AI networking. Paper until memo body checked.
ORCL	Y	Wait sleeve (AJ). Still wait, don’t chase.
PLTR / AAPL	N / event	PLTR expensive. AAPL event sleeve — not an AJ AAPL long.
EOSE	avoid	AJ red flags
TSLA	caution	AJ Permanent Bubble / 176x True PE. Caution↑↑ — not a long.
SPCX	watch	Watch, not a Y.
RIVN	N	Skip.
DELL	watch title	AJ Sat email lists Dell initiation title — body paywalled; not a Y.
INTC	color	HBM5 base-die late-2028 PRIOR (Zephyr) — still not an AJ Y.

2026-09-23 07:52 HKT / 2026-09-23 08:52 KST. US cash Tue done. AJ overnight: XPEV humanoids + MU confirmation — no brand-new Y ticker. Do not invent targets. Paper.

KRX PREOPEN. Attractive list EMPTY besides Hynix desk. Tue close: KOSPI 7,017.91 (+0.15%) after early +2% fade; 000660 ₩1,840,000 (−1.50%); 005930 ₩276,500 (+0.91%). Won 1,358.2 at Tue 15:30. SKHY ADR Tue $195.37; prem ~+44.2%. No overnight 000660 DART keep. data.krx missing. Tue flows: Hynix For −217,556 / Inst −159,679 / Ind −217,329; own 50.15%.

DART age-window: Hyundai E&C 000720 up 1-3%/p≈40% (₩882.8bn Gamcheon Zone-2 @08:26 — gap-today); Xplus 373200 mixed 8%+/p≈40% (₩14.0bn Series-7 CB refinance @15:51 Tue).

No new Korea attractive idea beyond Hynix desk + pre-open Hyundai E&C. Tue fade from 7,170 elevated — watch Wed auction. No live trade recs. Paper.

Jukan: JPM HBM model — 16Hi HBM adoption 2029 at the earliest

Morning note: JPMorgan updated HBM model; expects 16-high HBM stacking adoption no earlier than 2029.

Soft caution on near-dated ultra-high stack density narrative — timeline pushout vs hype; does not erase HBM4/ASP tightness already on book.

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Citrini: Agentic Reality — ramifications of widespread agentic adoption (long note)

Publishes ‘Agentic Reality’ revisit of 2023 ‘Less Deus, More Machina’ losers framework now that agents move from novelty to reality. Companion: 25 AI-disruptor short basket −38% vs SPY +75% over 3y.

Hard constructive agent-adoption / hardware-demand narrative (joins Muse/DRAM tape); soft caution for named disruptor shorts already worked. No single new AJ Y.

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AJ: Xpeng — cheapest way to play humanoids in the stock market

AJ flags XPEV as cheapest listed humanoid/robotics equity proxy (quotes XPENG_Global).

Reinforces standing XPEV Y — not a brand-new memo; humanoid overlay on existing book.

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AJ: Micron +23% in two months since Jul $885 call — ‘Bullseye’

Score-settling on prior MU call (Jul post); flags +23% move. Separate HC promo spam dropped.

Soft constructive MU standing Y confirmation — not a new add; NAND/DRAM tape still supportive.

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Jukan: Nvidia pushes KR/JP/TW substrate makers for glass within ~2y (before 2028)

KiPost: Nvidia asking substrate makers in Korea/Japan/Taiwan to finish glass development within two years. Zephyr labels path CoPoS.

Soft constructive advanced packaging/substrate — longer-dated NVDA packaging roadmap.

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Zephyr: HBM5 base die → Intel late 2028; TSMC keeps HBM4/HBM4E

Switch to Intel for HBM5 late 2028; TSMC handles HBM4/HBM4E base die.

Hard constructive INTC foundry/base-die sleeve; soft constructive TSMC near-term HBM4/4E base. Still not an AJ Y.

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Jukan: Samsung weighing 4nm expand + new 2nm line for HBM4/HBM5 base dies; prices up

Samsung considering 4nm expand + new 2nm for HBM4 base-die demand; raised prices on new 4nm/HBM4 base; Q3 HBM4 revenue expected >3× QoQ.

Hard constructive Samsung foundry + HBM4 mix/ASP — competitive share pressure vs SKHY HBM leadership.

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Citrini: AI agents will monetize unused friction — loyalty points, insurance, sticky deposits

Agent adoption turns prior friction profit pools into cost centers for non-adapters.

Soft mixed — constructive agent narrative; soft caution for high-friction consumer finance. Superseded in part by overnight Agentic Reality NEW.

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Jukan: China smuggling South Korean-made HBM through Malaysia (not EMIB)

Attributes China HBM access to smuggling KR-made HBM via Malaysia vs SemiAnalysis EMIB framing.

Soft bearish leakage/competition overlay for 000660/SKHY HBM scarcity premium.

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Jukan/DigiTimes: CXMT↔YMTC turning hostile — YMTC into LPDDR5, CXMT into NAND

Prior DRAM/NAND split breaking; head-to-head expected ~2028.

Competitive China memory pressure — soft mixed/bearish long-run share overlay for SKHY.

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Zephyr: Meta skipped Muse on WhatsApp — not enough CPU/GPU/DRAM/SSD for 2B users

Hardware scarcity as binding constraint on personal-agent rollout at Meta scale.

Hard constructive DRAM/NAND + CPU demand under agent adoption.

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AJ: NASDAQ only today back at June 1st level

Macro tape note — NASDAQ reclaiming early-June level.

Soft mixed US index color — no new AJ Y at the time.

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Method: morning fxtwitter scrape (api.fxtwitter.com/2/profile/{handle}/statuses); Home unavailable. Cutoff after evening 2026-09-22 22:15 HKT. JSON: x-feed.json.

Overall: mixed — four NEW overnight/morning prints; foundry/HBM4/packaging still on book as PRIOR; 16Hi delay soft caution; China competitive + HBM leakage offsets. No clean broad risk-on label shift.

AJ US watchlist: Y: LITE (standing); standing Y unchanged (AVGO/MU/MRVL/NVDA/XPEV/META/AMD); XPEV humanoids = reinforce; MU +23% = confirmation; ORCL wait; TSLA caution↑↑; SPCX watch; EOSE avoid; NIO caution; EOS avoid; DELL watch title; INTC color only. No brand-new AJ Y this pass.