Markets desk

Pack written to the site (not just chat). Next fill Tue 7:30 HKT.

watchlists AJ: no new public note overnight. Last pack 22 Aug (paid). MU still the largest seat. XPEV Q2 was the AJ-adjacent catalyst. Korea: Hynix is the tape. No new Korea names added.

X AM: Jukan/Zephyr HBM4E 16 Gbps / ~100 TB/s still HBM-bound, SKHY names EMIB; NAND lag is price-up not bits. AJ faded $100k/robotaxi. Citrini quiet (Long XBI Short QQQ?). Evening add: AJ still fading TSLA into Cybercab; Zephyr asked if Xiaomi XRING is TSMC-fabbed. Tape shifted to cautious-mixed (chip/memory soft + Hormuz + PCE Wed on NVDA week).

DART After 22:17 KST Sat. Session keeps on the strip below (Hanmi Genentech lead, then contracts / Nex Dynamics control change). No 000660 DART.

funding Paper. BN SKHYNIX no longer rich vs HL SKHX (~1280 vs 1283). Last 8h gap ~7 bp vs ~19 bp RT — sit if already on, no new cross. Majors only if that book is idle.

Hynix Mon close 000660 = 1,671,000 (−3.41%) after Friday’s 1,730,000. Samsung −8.7% on the return plan. Yahoo prev-close trap still applies at the open. SKHY 163.41 / AH 163.77. USDKRW ~1,386. ADS=0.1 → prem vs AH ~+31%. Not convert arb. Buyback leftover ~₩37.8tn / ~22.8m sh. Best paper idea: no new BN–HL sit.

KOSPI −3.1% as Samsung return plan disappoints

Mon 24 Aug KOSPI −215.99 (−3.12%) to 6,696.96. Samsung −8.7% to 257,000; SK hynix −3.41% to 1,671,000 after Friday’s ₩90–110tn return plan lacked buyback detail.

Cash-return mechanics can wipe a session even with a tight HBM cycle. NVDA earnings is the next external catalyst.

Yonhap

Samsung skids on record shareholder return

Samsung plunged more than 8% first session after ₩90–110tn ($65–80bn) return package. Analysts: smaller-than-hoped payout, limited buyback room given ownership.

Memory boom is not automatically multiple expansion. Buyback vs dividend now moves the KOSPI heavyweight as much as HBM.

KED Global

Nvidia price hikes on memory crunch, cuts both ways

Nvidia told customers 23 Aug it will raise prices on Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell by at least 15% as memory costs surge.

Near-term Korean HBM/DRAM pricing power. Same piece: hyperscaler capex could slow if NVDA passes it through.

KED Global

Zhipu GLM-5.3 tied 4th globally with Kimi K3

Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index: GLM-5.3 score 60, joint-highest open-weight with Moonshot Kimi K3, ahead of Qwen3.8 Max. API $1.4/m in / $4.4/m out. Weights due open-source Fri 28 Aug. CLSA Outperform, TP HK$2,061.

HK AI names (Zhipu 02513, MiniMax 00100) trading on benchmark/open-source cycles. 28 Aug open weights is the next catalyst. No fresh MiniMax print today.

HKET

Goldman: China advanced-chip supply to surge by 2035

Goldman (Mon): China 7nm-and-below wafer supply 46% CAGR 2025–35 vs 17% demand; deficit 92% (2025) → 34% (2035). SMIC yields 23% in 2026 toward 75% by 2035. Lithography still the bottleneck.

NVDA-China risk is long SMIC catch-up, not zero supply. China AI labs stay mixed-stack.

SCMP

Xpeng Dogotix raises US$900m at US$6.3bn

Robotics unit Dogotix raised US$900m Mon (Alibaba, Tencent, IDG, Gaorong US$600m; Xpeng US$200m). Said to be largest single PE deal for a Chinese robotics maker. Q2 net loss widened 179% to 1.34bn yuan.

Alibaba/Tencent doubling down on embodied AI via listed EV platforms. Robotics funding hot while auto P&L worsens.

SCMP

YMTC parent CCSH Star Market IPO

Prospectus: sell 10–12% (1.98–2.43bn sh), earmark 33bn yuan (~US$4.9bn) for capacity/R&D. CXMT July IPO raised 66.6bn yuan.

Mainland will own both Chinese DRAM (CXMT) and NAND (YMTC) into a memory squeeze — pressure on Samsung/SKHY NAND mix.

SCMP

SKHYUSDT vs SKHYNIX/10 premium + BN funding

Share-equivalent hedge is 10 SKHY per 1 SKHYNIX. Dollar hedge leaves leftover Hynix beta.

24 Aug AM: gap ~7 bp vs ~19 bp RT. Sit only if already on. HIP-3 may be thinner than 1.5 bp slip.

Ticker	Follow	Note
MU	Y	Cheapest PEG in 22 Aug AJ article
XPEV	Y	AJ $12.20 / ~$11B call 21 Aug
META / AMD	Y	Corridor entries after the dump
ORCL	Y	Wait, don’t chase
PLTR / AAPL	N	Expensive growth
EOSE	avoid	AJ red flags

Source @alojoh subscriber article 22 Aug 2026. Weekend recap, not intraweek.

Last week 17–21 Aug: Mon Liberation Day (KRX shut). Wed 000660 −9.75% then Thu +12.7% after ₩40조 buyback/cancel. Foreigners net sold the week (Yonhap/KRX). Official daily MDC still missing. KIND + DART + data.krx flows/shorts stay on the morning report.

TSLA Cybercab: “none of which has been priced in, right?”

Sarcastic fade of a bull arguing EV/FSD/Megapack/Semi ramps are real. Treats the Cybercab event as already in the price.

Tape: still fading TSLA into the event. China volumes he treats as real (later reply).

tweet

Xiaomi XRING: “Is it even TSMC fabbed??”

On Xiaomi in-house AI silicon (6nm, wafer-on-wafer NPU–DRAM bonding). Questions the TSMC attribution.

Tape: China advanced-packaging / foundry color. Not a SKHY print.

tweet

Pushes back on “Tesla China data is fake”

China volumes treated as real even while he stays bearish on unit econ. Not a flip to long TSLA.

tweet

HBM4E 16 Gbps on Samsung slide

PHY IO in B-die chart: HBM4E marked 16 Gbps. DQ count steps ~1024→2048 from HBM4; HBM5 DQ speed ~24 Gbps on the same chart.

Tape: 000660 / 005930 / MU HBM mix; NVDA rack BW still HBM-bound.

tweet

Feynman Ultra ~100 TB/s via 16× HBM5

Quote of the HBM4E slide. Math: 6.4 TB/s per HBM5 stack × 16 = 102.4 TB/s.

Tape: NVDA next-gen still stack-count/speed; SKHY/Samsung/MU.

tweet

Samsung roast of Micron HBM4 base die

Laugh-only quote of Irrational Analysis: Samsung presenter saying Micron’s DRAM-process HBM4 base die is a bad idea.

Tape: MU custom logic-die path contested. Not a SKHY negative.

tweet

EMIB named on SK hynix 2.5D/HBM slide

Slide lists EMIB next to CoWoS-S/R/L; stress chart CoWoS-S vs CoWoS-L on HBM/interposer.

Tape: SKHY on Intel-style EMIB vs TSMC CoWoS. Packaging yield/stress, not a bits print.

tweet

NAND names weak despite ~7× price-up

Objective Analysis slide “Most of Growth is from Pricing”: branded DRAM spot ~7.1×, NAND ~6.9× from mid-2025. Caption is why NAND stocks have been weak. Slide is price, not volume.

Tape: SNDK / MU NAND lag vs HBM/DRAM.

tweet

Robotaxi $100k revenue/vehicle ignores cost

Reply to Kalshi (not on Posts tab). Cybercab needs a lot of paid miles; several quarters to cash-flow positive. No new public subscriber article.

Tape: fades TSLA robotaxi-revenue headlines vs yesterday’s Citizens IRR clip.

tweet

3D DRAM PDN “will be a nightmare”

Quote of Raptor 3D-DRAM vs HBM4 hype (F2F TSMC N4 logic, claims 100+ TB/s but 32 GB vs HBM4 192 GB): logic-on-memory power delivery is the blocker.

Tape: 3D DRAM not a near-term HBM killer. Softly defensive SKHY/MU/Samsung HBM.

tweet

US “less democratic” on AI to catch China

Lunch color, not a ticker print. Counterpart looked at him like he was crazy.

Tape: geo/industrial-policy color on the AI race.

tweet

36y: 4× on $1M = $4M

Reply doubling down on yesterday’s 30y homes/S&P post. Quote of ~4% inflation, COL doubles every 18y. Lifestyle $200k-burn reply skipped.

Tape: long-duration SPX/housing. No SKHY call.

tweet

Long XBI Short QQQ?

No new public post since last run. Exact standing text unchanged. Pin is the 2022 $SIVB short.

Tape: long biotech vs mega-cap tech. Still fights the HBM/NVDA-hike tape.

tweet

Home (For you + Following) via logged-in @levturtle Chrome. Evening pass 21:37 HKT.

• Macro overlay: Iran/Hormuz tanker threats; dollar weak on debt nerves; Core PCE Wed + Jackson Hole Fri sitting on NVDA week.
• EliteOptions: weakness in chip/AI/memory into NVDA + PCE. Semis softer than this morning’s HBM-roadmap tape.
• Alibaba $10.2B placement for AI capex; Xiaomi in-house XRING silicon (Zephyr questions TSMC fab).
• BTC the risk-on outlier (~$79.5k, big weekly). Citrini still silent (Long XBI Short QQQ?).
• AJ stacking TSLA-bear replies into Cybercab; Jukan/BowTied none new since AM.

Overall: cautious-mixed. HBM-roadmap bid faded; geo + PCE + NVDA week. JSON: x-feed.json

Control change: ₩13bn 3rd-party to a 1-month-old shell

Siwon Innotech (₩990m equity, no sales) becomes largest holder 15 Sep. Plus ₩8bn CB (18% if converted) and a ₩4.5bn old-CB buyback.

DART

Unfaithful-disclosure warning — paid-in date slipped 6+ months

Pre-notice, decision 16 Sep. Zero points on the clock, so halt is not the base case. Tiny name still gaps on these.

DART

Buys 90% of Future Hitech (semi test gear) for ₩34bn

11% of assets, 13% of equity. Kids-book publisher walking into semiconductor equipment. FTC filing required.

DART

Humanoid-robot reducers — ₩1.92bn, 27% of FY sales

Unnamed Korean OEM, through Apr 2028. No down payment. Tiny reducer name; 27% of sales is the gap.

DART

Ansan plant ₩55.5bn, 57% of equity

Eye-drop/solid-dose building + warehouse through Sep 2029. Includes the Nov 2025 ₩9.5bn. Capacity up, cash out mostly in 2027.

DART

Ammonia cargo to PHILPHOS — ₩3.71bn, 29% of FY sales

USD 2.68m, T/T, through 27 Dec. Spot trade, not production. Tiny name; 29% of sales is the gap.

DART

LGD Vietnam OLED laminator — ₩5.8bn, 18% of FY sales

USD 4.15m, 90% down, through Nov 2027. Small tool name; 18% of sales is the gap.

DART

MOBIS NA HEV inverter — ₩20bn, 11.8% of FY sales

USD 14.6m, FOB, through 15 Apr 2027. Straight equipment print.

DART

Rehab abolished — no plan filed

Court (2025회합196) ended rehab 20 Aug, confirmed today. Next is likely bankruptcy. Tiny name, may already be halted.

DART

Genentech takes HM17321 — $190m up front, $2.31bn headline

LA-UCN2 agonist, worldwide ex-Korea. Milestones $2.12bn + royalties. Cash is the $190m; the rest is binary. Parent filed the same notice.

DART

Expo 2027 Montenegro — ₩73bn, 43.5% of FY sales

EUR 45m pavilion job through Dec 2027. Huge vs a ~₩70bn name. Collection/execution risk, but the % is the gap.

DART

AI NPU ASIC — ₩18.2bn, 15% of FY sales

Signed 12 Mar, disclosed now. Mix $8.7m + ₩5.4bn. Delayed, so some of it may be in the price.

DART

FY swing to ₩7.4bn profit vs a loss

Sales +6.7% to ₩178bn, OP +27% to ₩8.4bn. Unaudited. Triggered the 30% P&L-change rule.

DART

Daesan NCC shutdown story: not confirmed, plan was rejected

Creditors rejected a ~₩1.2tn restructuring plan 23 Feb. Still looking at NCC cuts. Firm answer in 6 months.

DART

US Big Tech DC substation — ₩231bn, 4.65% of FY sales

Via LS ELECTRIC AMERICA. Signed 8 Jun, amount locked 21 Aug, through 30 Jan 2027. Same print at parent LS — count once.

DART

Old job marked up: ₩143bn → ₩193bn (12.3% of sales)

Correction, not a new award. End date slipped to 30 Apr 2027. Small-cap construction; +₩50bn can still print. Holdings 060980 is the same filing.

DART

Supply contract KRW 21bn — 14.9% of last FY sales

Hoffman Construction (US, Idaho), PFC abatement gear, USD 15.1m, 21 Aug 2026–30 Jul 2027. Large vs 141bn FY sales. Not a rumor; DART during the cash session.

DART

CTP51 Keytruda biosimilar — Korea product-license application

Application, not approval. Small positive if the street was not already counting a KR filing; not a rerating on its own.

DART